tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post165936358142993668..comments2024-02-28T22:03:57.237-05:00Comments on The Automatic Earth: Debt Rattle, December 11 2008: The Great Fall of ChinaIlargihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comBlogger105125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-60059276970987036422008-12-14T01:09:00.000-05:002008-12-14T01:09:00.000-05:00Blynken, I'm not basing this on what you'd call 'm...Blynken, I'm not basing this on what you'd call 'media', but more on common sense, coupled with a decent amount of reading on China.<BR/><BR/>So we'll just have to watch your faith and see if it was justified, won't have to wait long.<BR/><BR/>If you think the problems that China is facing are anything like the problems England faced in the 50's you're severely delusional.<BR/><BR/>Do you know Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-6197386299675857542008-12-13T22:11:00.000-05:002008-12-13T22:11:00.000-05:00uncertain wrote: "I believe China is a country st...uncertain wrote: "I believe China is a country staring at the brink of total collapse and environmental degradation, and hurtling with increasingly desperate speed towards that abyss, with few options to escape this fate."<BR/><BR/>Now that is a different question, unrelated to the current financial crisis. All I can say is that England had worse environmental problems in the 1950s (look up the Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-70584918859172271552008-12-13T22:07:00.000-05:002008-12-13T22:07:00.000-05:00uncertain wrote: "In other words, how can I bet ag...uncertain wrote: "In other words, how can I bet against you, and anyone like you? I realize that there is a very large chance for extremely high profits here, and I'm interested."<BR/><BR/>I don't feel like helping you. Since you love your media, or at least you love it enough to let it totally brainwash you with regard to China, why don't you let it guide your investment decisions?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-58937576358613412122008-12-13T19:41:00.000-05:002008-12-13T19:41:00.000-05:00Let's not quibble over trivial details, what stock...Let's not quibble over trivial details, what stock/fund should I invest in that would profit richly if you are 100% wrong?<BR/><BR/>That's my question, or are you just talking?<BR/><BR/>In other words, how can I bet against you, and anyone like you? I realize that there is a very large chance for extremely high profits here, and I'm interested.<BR/><BR/>In other words, I think the China Bulls areAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-27707698745405848602008-12-13T18:45:00.000-05:002008-12-13T18:45:00.000-05:00By the way, China is not Japan. The two countries ...By the way, China is not Japan. The two countries are in completely different situations; don't confuse the two.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-22425322597435273872008-12-13T17:57:00.000-05:002008-12-13T17:57:00.000-05:00Make that "people, resources, and effective govern...Make that "people, resources, and effective government" -- that's what you need to grow.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-86735306733064443562008-12-13T17:42:00.000-05:002008-12-13T17:42:00.000-05:00uncertain wrote: "so you now apparently do agree t...uncertain wrote: "so you now apparently do agree that China now has a 0% growth rate"<BR/><BR/>When did I say this? I certainly do not agree. You have clearly not understood what I meant when I said "If you're implying that China's growth rate would have to double in the second half in order to match my prediction, you're wrong."<BR/><BR/>"all of its primary growth was funded by exports"<BR/><Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-67106077491350692852008-12-13T16:55:00.000-05:002008-12-13T16:55:00.000-05:00Blynken, you seem to have knack at missing my poin...Blynken, you seem to have knack at missing my point.<BR/><BR/>Ok, so you now apparently do agree that China now has a 0% growth rate. So after month 6, it will resume a 9% growth rate, resulting in a yearly growth rate of 4.5%<BR/><BR/>That's fine, I understand this. <BR/><BR/>However, that doesn't change an iota of what I said. I don't believe that china will resume this growth rate, because allAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-43110168110873239802008-12-13T16:08:00.000-05:002008-12-13T16:08:00.000-05:00uncertain wrote: "So you are in fact saying you be...uncertain wrote: "So you are in fact saying you believe that China will in the second half of 2009 return to a growth rate of 8-9%?"<BR/><BR/>China should grow 4 to 4.5% in the second half; this corresponds to an annual rate of 8 to 9%. I've been saying this consistently, though perhaps not as clearly as now. I've also been consistent in saying that some factories China will be hurt by the Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-818716632147308252008-12-13T12:43:00.000-05:002008-12-13T12:43:00.000-05:00Sorry, I missed one of your responses. So you are...Sorry, I missed one of your responses. So you are in fact saying you believe that China will in the second half of 2009 return to a growth rate of 8-9%?<BR/><BR/>Incredible stuff, sorry I misread one of your responses, I was assuming a reasonable scenario, but that's not the case.<BR/><BR/>This is very tempting to bet on to be honest, I view this is a 100% certain win for me, I have no doubt Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-13635113280914753732008-12-13T12:19:00.000-05:002008-12-13T12:19:00.000-05:00Blynken, that's quite a pullback from your initial...Blynken, that's quite a pullback from your initial comment.<BR/><BR/>So in Quarter 3, June 2009, China's growth, which apparently now you agree with Ilargi has largely stopped, will resume?<BR/><BR/>No further mentions of 8-9% growth? Good to see you're this confident about your predictions.<BR/><BR/>So in other words, you agree with Ilargi that it's likely that growth has ceased, that the Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-25041212796189702752008-12-12T22:50:00.000-05:002008-12-12T22:50:00.000-05:00Need to clarify my clarification.I wrote: "What I ...Need to clarify my clarification.<BR/><BR/>I wrote: "What I am saying is that China will resume growing at a rate that would be 8 to 9 percent a year if that had been the rate all year."<BR/><BR/>Change "China will resume growing" to "in the second half of 2009, China will resume growing".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-15183883933825582372008-12-12T22:44:00.001-05:002008-12-12T22:44:00.001-05:00Well, that didn't take long: Inhofe recycles long-...Well, that didn't take long: <A HREF="http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/11/inhofe-morano-recycles-long-debunked-denier-talking-points-will-the-media-be-fooled-again/" REL="nofollow">Inhofe recycles long-debunked denier talking points — will the media be fooled (again)?</A><BR/><BR/>I'm feeling a bit lazy, but the key points are: this is a recycled report, most names are padding, the key points Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-42413010795388013572008-12-12T22:44:00.000-05:002008-12-12T22:44:00.000-05:00uncertain wrote: "the prospect of 9% growth in 6 m...uncertain wrote: "the prospect of 9% growth in 6 months as massive factory closures are slamming the Chinese at this moment seems, again, perhaps a bit... unrealistic."<BR/><BR/>It's not as if a lot capital destruction is happening. The "factories" making things for export are basically people; very little capital-intensive machinery is involved. People can be moved to other work quite quickly.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-40332335407971364812008-12-12T20:41:00.000-05:002008-12-12T20:41:00.000-05:00Well, at least you are persistent, the China bulls...Well, at least you are persistent, the China bulls have been dampened, but I guess some still maintain that such development can actually occur, we'll see, 6 months isn't long to wait, this one I'm almost tempted to offer a cash wager on, since the prospect of 9% growth in 6 months as massive factory closures are slamming the Chinese at this moment seems, again, perhaps a bit... unrealistic.<BR/>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-14433720875660989652008-12-12T20:23:00.000-05:002008-12-12T20:23:00.000-05:00I wrote: "China's growth will probably be back to ...I wrote: "China's growth will probably be back to 8.5 to 9% by the second half of 2009." <BR/>/thehangedman/ wrote: "Selling their stuff to whom, exactly?"<BR/><BR/>Exporting is not the only way to grow. Believe it or not, Hanged Man, China has a huge internal economy. The country is far from being fully developed, so there isAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-35797470941736475342008-12-12T20:10:00.000-05:002008-12-12T20:10:00.000-05:00Blynken, well, you put your prediction out there f...Blynken, well, you put your prediction out there for all to see.<BR/><BR/>That's in a sense all one can ask. <BR/><BR/>However, the idea that China in 6 months will be seeing that type of growth as the rest of the world is in a serious state of collapse strikes me as... what's the word? Unrealistic? Yes, that's a good one, unrealistic seems to cover it.<BR/><BR/>But you did make the call, so Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-75019381023113515052008-12-12T15:43:00.000-05:002008-12-12T15:43:00.000-05:00I thought the auto industry was probably going to ...I thought the auto industry was probably going to be denied a bridge loan.<BR/><BR/>As I said previously, they'll probably be nationalized, then sold at a huge loss.<BR/><BR/>In Argentina the same bankers did this, and when the industries were sold, the factories were closed.<BR/><BR/>The point is to eliminate US competition in international market.Weaseldoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12657976442272800800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-80074565546210900142008-12-12T15:41:00.000-05:002008-12-12T15:41:00.000-05:00ccpo said, "(if the current July peak doesn't keep...ccpo said, "(if the current July peak doesn't keep getting revised all the way back to below the '05 peak)"<BR/><BR/>Yeah, I've burned by that before. Written an article based on industry numbers just to have the EIA change them upwards officially, then a couple of years later, quietly readjust them back down.<BR/><BR/>We can probably learn something from 2001. The EIA published no accurate Weaseldoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12657976442272800800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-27489377905299042652008-12-12T12:25:00.000-05:002008-12-12T12:25:00.000-05:00“…an obscure headnote written by a corrupt Supreme...<B>“…an obscure headnote written by a corrupt Supreme Court clerk in an otherwise obscure railroad tax case in 1886”</B><BR/><BR/>“...corporations are asserting that they...should stand side-by-side with humans in having access to the Bill of Rights. Nike asserted...that these corporations have First Amendment rights of free speech. Dow Chemical...asserted it has Fourth Amendment privacy rights Bigelowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16883913065391637120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-85888321674226590912008-12-12T12:17:00.000-05:002008-12-12T12:17:00.000-05:00Ilargi,do you mean the chinese are also subject to...Ilargi,<BR/><BR/>do you mean the chinese are also subject to gravity?<BR/><BR/>As you know, Gravity now dominates the movements of men and nations,<BR/>it is omniscient as well as omnipresent and omnipotent,<BR/>and that is a comforting thought.Gravityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09126443076478406015noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-5024435642027391972008-12-12T12:15:00.000-05:002008-12-12T12:15:00.000-05:00kerrysl, to keep it equally short, I'm going to be...kerrysl, to keep it equally short, I'm going to be lazy and wait for someone else to give a good analysis of those numbers, I'm sure it should only take a few days.<BR/><BR/>Here's my initial gut feeling: of the 650, 10% are involved in climate science, at most.<BR/><BR/>But let's not argue it, the facts on that will be out soon enough, this is something put out by Inhofe I gather, who is heavilyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-11496307832442206252008-12-12T12:02:00.000-05:002008-12-12T12:02:00.000-05:00GM shuts all N.A plants for Jan.?From CAW head sta...GM shuts all N.A plants for Jan.?<BR/><BR/>From CAW head <BR/><BR/>stay tunedAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-91460164346489385522008-12-12T11:39:00.000-05:002008-12-12T11:39:00.000-05:00@scandia,My boots are almost 10 years old and have...@scandia,<BR/><BR/>My boots are almost 10 years old and have lasted me through some pretty rough winters (I walk whenever it is feasible even though Ottawa isn't a particularly walkable city). I have had to replace the laces numerous times and fix the soles twice. I will never give up these made in Quebec beauties! For the record, I bought them at Mark's Work Wearhouse which is usually good for Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-78321991793228952852008-12-12T11:31:00.000-05:002008-12-12T11:31:00.000-05:00Rew - Thanks for your link. Also checkout the Chri...Rew - Thanks for your link. <BR/>Also checkout the Chris Martension Crash Course, a series of 20 video chapters. Excellent for people who want to learn about the economy, how money is created, bubbles, how we got to where we are now.<BR/>http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse<BR/><BR/><BR/>homepage<BR/>http://www.chrismartenson.com/bluebirdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09600634086150466162noreply@blogger.com