tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post2296311668545054894..comments2024-02-28T22:03:57.237-05:00Comments on The Automatic Earth: December 17 2009: (20)10 Trends: The Year of the Wake-up CallIlargihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comBlogger98125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-84845130694699972242009-12-19T17:47:39.639-05:002009-12-19T17:47:39.639-05:00New post up.
Death, Taxes and Mr. Market calling ...New post up.<br /><br /><a href="http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2009/12/december-19-2009-death-taxes-and-mr.html" rel="nofollow"><b>Death, Taxes and Mr. Market calling the bluff</b></a><br /><br /><br /><br />.Ilargihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-69662653654081104142009-12-19T16:01:59.950-05:002009-12-19T16:01:59.950-05:00why did the shadowstats unemployment number drop t...why did the shadowstats unemployment number drop to 22 from 22.1, in conjunction with the bls figures, when it refuses to delete the dropouts?benhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07338619620804720116noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-77200426595140709622009-12-19T15:46:57.081-05:002009-12-19T15:46:57.081-05:00That reference to Willie Sutton inspired me to che...That reference to Willie Sutton inspired me to check him out in Wikipedia.<br /><br />"He robbed about 100 banks from the late 1920s to his final arrest in 1952—with several prison terms in between; he was also a master at breaking out of prisons."<br /><br />Yup. But that was over 20 odd years. Our banksters did better in just the last year.<br /><br />"Sutton was an el gallinazohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00642036843036726232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-57331021349108605702009-12-19T15:32:43.104-05:002009-12-19T15:32:43.104-05:00With the next two Friday's as legal holidays, ...With the next two Friday's as legal holidays, will the FDIC move their weekly party up to Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve? Will there be lumps of coal in the stockings? Inquiring minds would like to know.el gallinazohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00642036843036726232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-9276965787978080822009-12-19T15:29:03.616-05:002009-12-19T15:29:03.616-05:00Ed_Gorey said...
Ilargi,
"I wonder why the N...Ed_Gorey said...<br />Ilargi,<br /><br />"I wonder why the NYTimes never struggles to clarify the various factors surrounding US unemployment phony numbers."<br /><br />For the same reason that Willie Sutton didn't report to the banks that their security could use a little improvement.el gallinazohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00642036843036726232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-44985805497859196742009-12-19T14:35:28.084-05:002009-12-19T14:35:28.084-05:00z, regarding "Harvard's Interest-Rate `Sw...z, regarding "Harvard's Interest-Rate `Swaps' So Toxic Even Summers Won't Explain Them" - A google search turns up the missing article <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aJnjG1iQHZK0" rel="nofollow">here</a> in the archives. It has strangely disappeared from the link at the front-page headline. <br /><br />A choice paragraph:<br /><i>The Jim Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17419179432204743768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-51866849980081993422009-12-19T14:05:42.892-05:002009-12-19T14:05:42.892-05:00Question concerning PE ratios for the equity marke...Question concerning PE ratios for the equity markets:<br /><br />Every day I read articles where people use the term "PE ratio," yet each person seems to define the term very differently. Bill Bonner and I believe Mish recently quoted the S&P500 PE ratio at something like 140, and said it's the highest in history. Today, I see an article in Bloomberg quoting a PE ratio of 22 Erin Winthropehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17535747338165517395noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-64129629404592491212009-12-19T14:01:52.523-05:002009-12-19T14:01:52.523-05:00VK,
A friend of mine used to quip that "stat...VK,<br /><br />A friend of mine used to quip that "statistics lie and I have the numbers to prove it". Unfortunately, I don't have them and just to prove to el gallinanzo how cantankerous I can be, I'm NOT going to look for them. :)<br /><br />What I can see is that, at least on the page published, the boys and girls at BLS utterly failed to supply any clue as to exactly what Phlogiston Água de Beberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16269917130349144430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-48594517420487755702009-12-19T13:30:36.831-05:002009-12-19T13:30:36.831-05:00@ Palceon, My understanding of the 100B to help th...@ Palceon, My understanding of the 100B to help the third world combat climate change is to be a group fund, not money from the US alone. So I interpreted Hillary's speech...I was also very surprised that the rep from Ethiopia sold out his country to reach " an agreement". Why would he do that?<br />The issue will recede from consciousness now.scandiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07924260428840006237noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-83949058239057773022009-12-19T13:07:15.315-05:002009-12-19T13:07:15.315-05:00Wgs @ 3.10 pm,
The version I heard was 'keep ...Wgs @ 3.10 pm,<br /><br />The version I heard was 'keep an open heart but watch your arse'!<br /><br />:Ocarpe diemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14488224761512097840noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-4976934873635151812009-12-19T12:25:37.094-05:002009-12-19T12:25:37.094-05:00@ Ed, IM Nobody and Ilargi
According to this data...@ Ed, IM Nobody and Ilargi<br /><br />According to this data series by the BLS - http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm<br /><br />The persons 'Not in Labour Force' are at 82.9 Million people!<br /><br />Of those 82.9 Million people only 6 Million or so want a job. (That's what the BLS says)<br /><br />Of that 82.9 Million people, there are around 27 Million Men over the age VKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06843562351166927162noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-1990026820421167502009-12-19T12:22:37.362-05:002009-12-19T12:22:37.362-05:00Igor Panarin is the breakup dude. I have so much t...Igor Panarin is the breakup dude. I have so much trouble with his expectations for the successor states that it really hampers my ability to take him seriouslyFrankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11752307987743035281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-77479748924449960002009-12-19T12:04:03.755-05:002009-12-19T12:04:03.755-05:00Ilargi,
I wonder why the NYTimes never struggles ...Ilargi,<br /><br />I wonder why the NYTimes never struggles to clarify the various factors surrounding US unemployment phony numbers. It's not like they don't know what about the manipulation.<br /><br />A few minutes after you answered my question, I stumbled upon the following quote from an article in today's NYTimes regarding unemployment in South Africa:<br /><br />"AlthoughErin Winthropehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17535747338165517395noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-5548992388058241002009-12-19T11:56:43.554-05:002009-12-19T11:56:43.554-05:00Paleocon said...
So what's the deal with ...Paleocon said...<br /><i><br /> So what's the deal with the agreements at Copenhagen?<br /></i><br />Deal or No Deal, it hardly matters. Homo Sapiens has repeatedly demonstrated a total lack of qualifications to be entrusted with the care and maintenance of a planet. Fortunately, for the planet that is, it has plenary powers and can dismiss H. Sap. from the job as it pleases. This will Phlogiston Água de Beberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16269917130349144430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-6887505151236337562009-12-19T11:53:32.452-05:002009-12-19T11:53:32.452-05:00Thanks Ilargi,
On the basis of the criteria you m...Thanks Ilargi,<br /><br />On the basis of the criteria you mentioned, it seems possible that unemployment numbers (U3 and U6) could start falling in the months ahead as more and more people pile up in the long term discouraged worker (i.e. not in the labor force) category.Erin Winthropehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17535747338165517395noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-34709657144777418342009-12-19T11:38:43.174-05:002009-12-19T11:38:43.174-05:00Ed,
John Williams says this:
"The seasonal...Ed, <br /><br />John Williams says this:<br /><br /><i>"The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.<br /><br Ilargihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-12876944737621947562009-12-19T11:30:00.479-05:002009-12-19T11:30:00.479-05:00Ed_Gorey,
I absolutely don't know how the BLS...Ed_Gorey,<br /><br />I absolutely don't know how the BLS decides, but I wouldn't bet against the determining factor being, the necessity of keeping the U6 number from looking horrific. I suppose only The Shadow knows for sure.<br /><br />Yes, I am that old. :)Phlogiston Água de Beberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16269917130349144430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-28008272574002874312009-12-19T10:56:36.976-05:002009-12-19T10:56:36.976-05:00VK,
As the resident geezer, I'll weigh in on ...VK,<br /><br />As the resident geezer, I'll weigh in on that EMRATIO chart. I was there!<br /><br />It can be seen that the 50's, often thought of as the good old days, actually had plenty of economic problems. Lots of women worked, but rarely those with children at home.<br /><br />The late 60's saw a ramp up in employment of both sexes. Largely related to the space race and Vietnam Phlogiston Água de Beberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16269917130349144430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-30269119840519632802009-12-19T10:51:01.787-05:002009-12-19T10:51:01.787-05:00GunHillTrain said...
Re: Joel Garreau
"When ...GunHillTrain said...<br />Re: Joel Garreau<br /><br />"When Garreau published his book in 1981, he was describing what he thought were existing social and economic conditions. I don't think he predicted a political break-up of North America, or anything about a future financial or energy crisis."<br /><br />My copy is sitting in storage in Florida 4000 odd km away, and it was near el gallinazohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00642036843036726232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-72070580404909863212009-12-19T10:43:27.948-05:002009-12-19T10:43:27.948-05:00Re the Bloomberg, Sophie Leung article in today...Re the Bloomberg, Sophie Leung article in today's posting on "the mother of all carry trades:"<br /><br />The article just refers to dangerous forex volatility when it blows up and deleverages. She doesn't say that the USD will (at least temporarily) blow a hole through the roof of the garage where currencies are parked. Why doesn't she mention the obvious?el gallinazohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00642036843036726232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-22015282209792729492009-12-19T10:26:56.246-05:002009-12-19T10:26:56.246-05:00@ VK or anybody else with info
Re: Confusion con...@ VK or anybody else with info<br /><br />Re: Confusion concerning Discouraged Worker vs. Not in the labor force<br /><br />I'm really confused about what determines whether or not someone is a "discourage worker" who is marginally attached to the labor force (and captured in the U6 unemployment numbers) and someone who has dropped out of the labor force entirely. <br />It seems Erin Winthropehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17535747338165517395noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-46976658478417582412009-12-19T10:21:22.478-05:002009-12-19T10:21:22.478-05:00Re: Joel Garreau
When Garreau published his book ...Re: Joel Garreau<br /><br />When Garreau published his book in 1981, he was describing what he thought were existing social and economic conditions. I don't think he predicted a political break-up of North America, or anything about a future financial or energy crisis.<br /><br />I gave away my copy years ago. Maybe someone who still has one can confirm more about what Garreau actually GunHillTrainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13164852660872200526noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-81083616982674909372009-12-19T10:20:37.464-05:002009-12-19T10:20:37.464-05:00So what's the deal with the agreements at Cope...So what's the deal with the agreements at Copenhagen? I was squarely in the camp of "you can't create any sort of decent plan in a week", let alone the last 2 days. You can vote on plans outlined over the preceding months...but anything done quickly is done poorly.<br /><br />Why does the US both ponying up $100B for China and others, which will have to be largely borrowed Zaphodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17780961198148237878noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-28645046161168675422009-12-19T09:47:08.887-05:002009-12-19T09:47:08.887-05:00@Coyote...love that story of the kid and his grand...@Coyote...love that story of the kid and his grandparents cash! Enterprising young man...Wonder if he negotiated anything in return?scandiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07924260428840006237noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-6361855483848950892009-12-19T08:58:12.059-05:002009-12-19T08:58:12.059-05:00Notice in this chart from the FED
http://bit.ly/8...Notice in this chart from the FED<br /><br />http://bit.ly/8S5bRW<br /><br />How many people have actually left the workforce. It's been quite a drop, in the 50-early 80's am guessing, one man could earn enough to support his wife and family. Today this is hardly the case unless you are in the top 10 percentile. Both partners have to work to meet demands, so a large drop like that tells VKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06843562351166927162noreply@blogger.com