tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post3029978779769401289..comments2024-02-28T22:03:57.237-05:00Comments on The Automatic Earth: Debt Rattle, July 25 2008: Upside Down UnderwaterIlargihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-73315494510866608012008-07-26T10:40:00.000-04:002008-07-26T10:40:00.000-04:00OC,Rallies such as this can be difficult to call. ...OC,<BR/><BR/>Rallies such as this can be difficult to call. The question is whether or not the initial short squeeze (that can send indices up sharply as shorts cover) ends up translating into more general buying interest from the buy-the-dips crowd. At first it appeared like the short squeeze might fail to do that, and become another very short failed rally. <BR/><BR/>That is still possible, butStoneleighhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15099878430757036461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-27916028293195951722008-07-26T10:06:00.000-04:002008-07-26T10:06:00.000-04:00Another bank crash related diary on DailyKos for y...Another bank crash related diary on DailyKos for your viewing pleasure ...<BR/><BR/>http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/26/8327/37155/49/557261.https://www.blogger.com/profile/03915219261001181341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-58533807792438329422008-07-26T08:40:00.000-04:002008-07-26T08:40:00.000-04:00I think that it is the foreign bondholders of F&am...I think that it is the foreign bondholders of F&F that Dodd and the other puppets worry about - not holders of common stock. There is talk that the SWF will be switching from bonds and preferred stock with the banks to common stock in order to politically control the corporations and have their directors on the board.<BR/><BR/>As to why they are still coughing up money - "If I owe you Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-90925492725402041992008-07-26T07:44:00.000-04:002008-07-26T07:44:00.000-04:00Nouriel Roubini on his RGE Monitor( july 25th) " W...Nouriel Roubini on his RGE Monitor( july 25th) " Who is going to rescue the busted US banks...?"<BR/>It addresses my question as to where all the bailout money is going to come from. He suggests SWF will step up again but will want control(vote,sit on the board) this time around! <BR/>I am imagining the US( and Canada)colonized. Ha! what goes around comes around...scandiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07924260428840006237noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-18917311054297124402008-07-26T02:16:00.000-04:002008-07-26T02:16:00.000-04:00I wonder how long that well will produce..We the t...I wonder how long that well will produce..We the taxpayer have been bled mighty white lately .If they go to that well too many times it will be dry.<BR/><BR/>When do you think they will cut the cash to the USA?with our currency being de-valued at a terrifying rate,I am amazed that anyone is putting money in...Crystalradio,I think a lot of people are hip to peak oil,both in this,and other Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-80296750032840587202008-07-26T00:11:00.000-04:002008-07-26T00:11:00.000-04:00Reading "Why wasn't IndyMac on FDIC problem list?"...Reading "Why wasn't IndyMac on FDIC problem list?" I kept thinking: "I've SEEN this movie!". <BR/>This is JAWS. Bad for tourist business to suggest there is a great white in the water. <BR/><BR/>On CNN last night I think Chris Dodd was hinting at the great white in the water. He mentioned more than once, in talking about the housing bill, that FOREIGN countries were getting very nervous, and Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-71748001389306452872008-07-25T20:23:00.000-04:002008-07-25T20:23:00.000-04:00FF : Along the same lines, check out some of these...FF : Along the same lines, check out some of these data sets from <A HREF="http://www.markit.com/information/products/category/indices/cmbx.html" REL="nofollow">Markit</A>.<BR/><BR/>Frankly, I don't know exactly what this stuff means. I believe CMBX is a price index for various groups of commercial mortgage backed securities while ABX.HE is an index for home equity asset backed securities. It Farmerodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03492165772535123915noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-7524683667340382872008-07-25T19:24:00.000-04:002008-07-25T19:24:00.000-04:00Re:"The upfront price that credit-default swap sel...Re:"The upfront price that credit-default swap sellers demanded to protect Washington Mutual bonds from default for five years rose 6 percentage points to 20 percentage points, according to London-based CMA Datavision. <BR/><BR/>That's in addition to an annual fee of 5 percent, meaning costs $2 million upfront and $500,000 annually to protect $10 million of the bonds."<BR/><BR/>Incredible. Wamu Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-51338546031674298172008-07-25T19:11:00.000-04:002008-07-25T19:11:00.000-04:00This is what I wonder about:1. Stoneleigh's take ...This is what I wonder about:<BR/><BR/>1. Stoneleigh's take on the possibility of a new low prior to a strong rebound, given these most recent events<BR/>2. Whether this Auttralian Bank is simply setting the tone now because it knows its exposore is relatively low as compared to its peers<BR/>3. What OMERS is thinking? <A HREF="http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080725.Farmerodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03492165772535123915noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-70380470522772177602008-07-25T18:52:00.001-04:002008-07-25T18:52:00.001-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-75612118359214761072008-07-25T18:52:00.000-04:002008-07-25T18:52:00.000-04:00Whad I wanna know, is: What would have happened to...Whad I wanna know, is: What would have happened to the US economy if Greenspan hadn't promoted or at least allowed the housing bubble to form. Seems to this, economics challenged' peon that without it The US would have floundered and the pitchforks would have had their day in the USA, then and there.<BR/><BR/>So, if I were Greenspan chatting with his chums, I might say," well who the hell needs Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-52727925638188147202008-07-25T17:37:00.000-04:002008-07-25T17:37:00.000-04:00"Trading note -- Yesterday Lowry'sSelling Pressure..."Trading note -- Yesterday Lowry'sSelling Pressure Index rose to within one point of its July 15 all-time high. That tells me that big money has been selling into all rallies, and that's just plain bearish. Selling Pressure should be declining rapidly when the market rallies. That's not what is happening." Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, Today.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-38882105667131956542008-07-25T17:33:00.000-04:002008-07-25T17:33:00.000-04:00Years ago C.A. Fitts was "promoted" --an offer of ...Years ago C.A. Fitts was "promoted" --an offer of a seat on the Federal Reserve Board-- she turned them down.<BR/><BR/>“I appreciate that providing citizens with an insiders understanding of how money and resources work is always a sensitive issue. So much political and economic control depends on the financial system remaining overly complex to busy people. My first experience with being Bigelowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16883913065391637120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-82433625111759035942008-07-25T17:05:00.000-04:002008-07-25T17:05:00.000-04:00Cygnus,In the S&L crisis, over 1000 banks and ...Cygnus,<BR/><BR/>In the S&L crisis, over 1000 banks and thrifts closed, 1600 between 1986 and 1995. Today's crisis is much worse, so it makes sense that more banks and thrifts will be hit this time.Ilargihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-19724054436762406212008-07-25T16:55:00.000-04:002008-07-25T16:55:00.000-04:00Yeah, I saw Mish' listNot very strong, neither the...Yeah, I saw Mish' list<BR/><BR/>Not very strong, neither the points themselves nor the order. So I didn't include it, he should be able to do much better.Ilargihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-3523040401128315282008-07-25T15:37:00.000-04:002008-07-25T15:37:00.000-04:00“Ten Bear Market Phases1. A huge buy the dip menta...“Ten Bear Market Phases<BR/><BR/>1. A huge buy the dip mentality sets in during the initial decline. Most party goes cannot fathom that party has ended.<BR/>2. Moderate concern sets in when buy the dip stops working.<BR/>3. Initial panic.<BR/>4. Numerous bottom calls are made, all wrong.<BR/>5. Search for the guilty.<BR/>6. Punishment of the innocent.<BR/>7. More panic.<BR/>8. Lawsuits fly.<BR/>9Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-6238696207811972172008-07-25T15:36:00.000-04:002008-07-25T15:36:00.000-04:00Illargi, "why the surprise?" Well, for one, that'...Illargi, "why the surprise?" Well, for one, that's the largest number thrown out for potential bank failures that I've seen yet. And two, it's one thing to acknowledge in your head that it's a possibility that many could go under fairly soon, but quite another to see it in print. Print has a bit more shock value.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-63417026670644231552008-07-25T14:51:00.000-04:002008-07-25T14:51:00.000-04:00Anon1, that link was already in the post. No need ...Anon1, that link was already in the post. No need to repeat it.<BR/><BR/>----------<BR/><BR/>Cygnus, the quotation marks around "a few" are there for a reason, of course.<BR/><BR/>Why the surprise though? I don't think Whalen throws out that high an estimate yet. When commercial real estate starts tanking, 25% of banks going down is likely to be a conservative number. The majority of smaller Ilargihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-32400844022236504482008-07-25T13:58:00.000-04:002008-07-25T13:58:00.000-04:00"Christopher Whalen at Institutional Risk Analytic..."Christopher Whalen at Institutional Risk Analytics thinks there are "a few" more: "Of about 9,000 institutions, "we have identified about 10 percent that are in significant distress and another 10 to 15 percent headed in that direction"."<BR/><BR/>A few? A FEW? <BR/><BR/>9000 x 10% = <B>900 banks in distress NOW?</B><BR/><BR/>9000 X 15% = <B>up to 1350 more banks probably headed that way soon?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com