tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post4600857314991442934..comments2024-02-28T22:03:57.237-05:00Comments on The Automatic Earth: Debt Rattle, March 14 2008 - Part 2Ilargihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-60186854423204553672008-03-15T09:36:00.000-04:002008-03-15T09:36:00.000-04:00Thanks Stoneleigh ... I'm wondering about Schwab. ...Thanks Stoneleigh ... I'm wondering about Schwab. Are they in the same basket with the Wall Street banks, or are they less exposed (just a discount broker instead of an investment bank)? Any thoughts?<BR/><BR/>Thanks for this great blog. I feel like I'm ahead of the curve as a result of what you're doing here.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-6887226588961246612008-03-15T09:04:00.000-04:002008-03-15T09:04:00.000-04:00Here's some strong language from theIMF, for enter...Here's some strong language from the<BR/>IMF, for entertainment purposes only http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ee21ddbc-f08b-11dc-ba7c-0000779fd2ac.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-58203716936539439892008-03-15T08:41:00.000-04:002008-03-15T08:41:00.000-04:00TripWire,If you can arrange to hang on to your own...TripWire,<BR/><BR/>If you can arrange to hang on to your own certificate that would insulate you from the risk of losing access to your assets through someone else's potential problems. You'd need to store it carefully though.Stoneleighhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15099878430757036461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-91783986046275944932008-03-15T08:37:00.000-04:002008-03-15T08:37:00.000-04:00Hi Ric,You may well need to be lucky as well as pr...Hi Ric,<BR/><BR/>You may well need to be lucky as well as prepared, at least to some extent. The main thing is not to trust the banking system and to make sure you have some liquidity under your own control. As we've seen with Bear Stearns, unraveling can happen very quickly once a tipping point is reached and disintegration becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.<BR/><BR/>I think you're right to be Stoneleighhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15099878430757036461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-10004714048053970182008-03-15T05:09:00.000-04:002008-03-15T05:09:00.000-04:00It's late and I'm trying to clarify some thoughts ...It's late and I'm trying to clarify some thoughts and feelings I have about what's happening. We don't have a TV, but sometimes I watch economic news clips from MSNBC to see what people are saying--and today I watched two guys trying to act knowledgeable and nonchallant about Bear Stearns--and it was clear they were terrified out of their minds.<BR/><BR/>Stoneleigh and Ilargi are giving us box Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-7097876813454398222008-03-15T02:06:00.000-04:002008-03-15T02:06:00.000-04:00I will be out of the loop next week, actually comp...I will be out of the loop next week, actually completely out of touch with anything at all for several days. Hopefully there will still be something recognizable when I return.<BR/><BR/>However, having said that, I do not expect Merrill Lynch or Citigroup to be the next to fall. Look at the credit default swaps against Lehman Brothers. They were the other target of the rumors of insolvency this Greyzonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03675706201111951125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-54047274966747966182008-03-15T01:41:00.000-04:002008-03-15T01:41:00.000-04:00Train freight is a solid indicator of economic act...Train freight is a solid indicator of economic activity. Fuel issues pushes rail freight January and February, but check that 10% slide for March. Eep!<BR/><BR/>http://www.progressiverailroading.com/news/article.asp?id=15768.https://www.blogger.com/profile/03915219261001181341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-3111721913975701562008-03-15T00:55:00.000-04:002008-03-15T00:55:00.000-04:00A young man, about to graduate from teacher's coll...A young man, about to graduate from teacher's college brushed aside my concerns for the economy because he perceives security/stablility on the board payroll. I thought about the enormous debt school boards carry, the impact on each and every family if that debt can't be financed.A lack of operational capital will affect every aspect of our lives.scandiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07924260428840006237noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-70050074286636909232008-03-14T22:24:00.000-04:002008-03-14T22:24:00.000-04:00Hmm, is this stuff accelerating much faster than e...Hmm, is this stuff accelerating much faster than expected or is it just me?<BR/><BR/>At this point all I can think is Im glad spring is about here, that way those of us that end up outside sleeping in tents under the overpass won't freeze to death.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-64422716303402639422008-03-14T21:40:00.000-04:002008-03-14T21:40:00.000-04:00No, no, no, no, no, no, yeah, yeah, yeah,yeah,yeah...No, no, no, no, no, no, yeah, yeah, yeah,yeah,yeah,yeah<BR/><BR/>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Swiss banking giant UBS AG (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research), struggling with heavy mortgage losses, on Friday denied market speculation that it was seeking a buyer for its U.S. wealth management unit.<BR/><BR/>Analysts and investors have called on UBS, whose shares have struggled amid a series of trading and Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-71034139184301497522008-03-14T20:14:00.000-04:002008-03-14T20:14:00.000-04:00When headlines on Bear Stearns begun to pop up tod...When headlines on Bear Stearns begun to pop up today on BBC, Reuters, Bloomberg and many other newspaper sites, I went to check CNN, and to my (kind of) surprise there was only a small hyperlink down the page.<BR/><BR/>Ilargi, you keep mentioning Merryl and Citibank as the next guys on the line. Yes, they have written down a lot of billions but that has to be compared with their assets. And Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-20777006119490774662008-03-14T19:52:00.000-04:002008-03-14T19:52:00.000-04:00See what happens when Yulia kisses W's arse and do...See what happens when Yulia kisses W's arse and doesn't pay for gas.<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JC15Ag01.html" REL="nofollow">LINK</A>VLADhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07303463697333210934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-76350375518179380092008-03-14T19:17:00.000-04:002008-03-14T19:17:00.000-04:00Thanks to both of you, Ilargi and Stoneleigh, for ...Thanks to both of you, Ilargi and Stoneleigh, for your clever work and clear explanations.<BR/><BR/>We are learning a lot.<BR/><BR/>I see that you are not euskaldunak, but you've got a good euskaldun friend! –:)<BR/><BR/>Go on with your good work.<BR/><BR/>AuskaloAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-63475344077250561522008-03-14T19:12:00.000-04:002008-03-14T19:12:00.000-04:00Hello again,> Of course we can presume that it's a...Hello again,<BR/><BR/>> Of course we can presume that it's all just sensationalism, but still, it's the BBC.<BR/><BR/>Me.<BR/>Yes, that is the first thing I checked. The BBC plus Libération, that is quite a mix.<BR/> <BR/>> I will bet you that there are many countries where the only reason for silence is that nobody dared ask questions (or journalists have no clue).<BR/><BR/>Me.<BR/>I have been Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-78405960116751229962008-03-14T19:02:00.000-04:002008-03-14T19:02:00.000-04:00Auskalo, (beats me)All primary dealers do have acc...Auskalo, (beats me)<BR/><BR/>All primary dealers do have access to dealings with the Fed. Here's a <A HREF="http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/pridealers_current.html" REL="nofollow">list</A>. There's solvency requirements though. Here's a good definition: <I>"A pre-approved bank, broker/dealer or other financial institution that is able to make business deals with the U.S. Federal Reserve, such as Ilargihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-1241184977517258382008-03-14T18:49:00.000-04:002008-03-14T18:49:00.000-04:00Auskalo,Ez gara euskaldunak :)Auskalo,<BR/><BR/>Ez gara euskaldunak :)Stoneleighhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15099878430757036461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-82108509837826947512008-03-14T18:47:00.000-04:002008-03-14T18:47:00.000-04:00François,i know what you mean about the France art...François,<BR/><BR/>i know what you mean about the France article, but then, I decided to put it in, because it points forward to a world we have yet to meet. A sort of : how bad can it get? Of course we can presume that it's all just sensationalism, but still, it's the BBC. Anyway, with all that in mind, I put it in. <BR/><BR/>As for the French banks, and that's not just France by any means, I Ilargihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-2136600538666613062008-03-14T18:38:00.000-04:002008-03-14T18:38:00.000-04:00Hello Ilargi,Thanks for the list including the Ger...Hello Ilargi,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the list including the German banks, plus all the others with losses under 1 G$.<BR/><BR/>What strikes me as remarkable is that I do not see any French banks.<BR/><BR/>I would assume that they would be right up there with the others, but no sign. In fact, with the exception of the SocGen problems, I have seen virtually no information on France. We see the U.S., Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-728521774059781022008-03-14T16:53:00.000-04:002008-03-14T16:53:00.000-04:00Hi Ilargi,I appreciate a lot your work and I follo...Hi Ilargi,<BR/><BR/>I appreciate a lot your work and I follow you and Stoneleigh from TOD.<BR/><BR/>Anyway, I have to make a correction your 2. part intro of today, because Bearn Sterns has no access to the TAF.<BR/><BR/>From Bloomberg:<BR/><BR/>The loan to Bear Stearns required a vote today by the Fed's Board of Governors because the company isn't a bank, Fed staff officials said. The central Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-64800686656491177902008-03-14T16:29:00.000-04:002008-03-14T16:29:00.000-04:00ilargi,I looked into buying T-bills on my own but ...ilargi,<BR/><BR/>I looked into buying T-bills on my own but the website is a bit confusing and I don't want to make a dumb mistake. I'm thinking of trusting Schwab to buy the T-Bills and keep the certificate for me. Any reason that you're aware of why I shouldn't?<BR/><BR/>Thanks,<BR/>TripWireAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-28002657809237627232008-03-14T15:24:00.000-04:002008-03-14T15:24:00.000-04:00OC,LSS's were sort of new for me as well, and that...OC,<BR/><BR/>LSS's were sort of new for me as well, and that NatPost piece is real good when you compare it to their usual stuff. <BR/><BR/>Still, with leverage being the key word in all of the mayhem, and the key to the downfall being much faster and harder than anyone today can imagine, this particular technicality is just what you would expect, it's just more stale alphabet soup.<BR/><BR/>It'sIlargihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-46987554993256393382008-03-14T15:13:00.000-04:002008-03-14T15:13:00.000-04:00I think there will be a lot of Canadians (includin...I think there will be a lot of Canadians (including some of my friends) who are going to kick themselves for not having done something to protect themselves from this collapse. People will write books about this in a few years, detailing the months and months of articles in various media that foreshadowed the ultimate crash. I can see how lots of American got burned; it basically started there.Farmerodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03492165772535123915noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-55181201539510543802008-03-14T14:52:00.000-04:002008-03-14T14:52:00.000-04:00rumor,case in point, and I've said this before:all...rumor,<BR/><BR/>case in point, and I've said this before:<BR/><BR/>all the Ottawa drillbits keep insisting that the Canadian economy is all about long stem roses, expensive wine and great moonlight<BR/><BR/>so why on earth do you think they are cutting the interest rates? <BR/><BR/>that is for systems in trouble.Ilargihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-3917192795215735622008-03-14T14:34:00.000-04:002008-03-14T14:34:00.000-04:00Ilargi, thanks for the reply. I tend on reflection...Ilargi, thanks for the reply. I tend on reflection to agree with you. This seems really just a rehash of what was being said in the US 6 months back or so (that is, the exposure is limited to subprime mortgages, it can be absorbed, etc.). I always say, Canada follows the US in just about everything, just a little later. Doesn't seem any different in this regard.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-17209928444359162282008-03-14T13:58:00.000-04:002008-03-14T13:58:00.000-04:00Ilargi,thanks a lot for that list. As I said, ther...Ilargi,<BR/><BR/>thanks a lot for that list. As I said, there is no doubt that European and German banks are exposed to illiquid CDOs and CDS, and yes, they do have SPVs off the balance sheets.<BR/><BR/>But it does help them that their home market is doing relatively well. They can refinance relatively cheap and at home. They will have to slash profits and all that, but most of them are not underAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com