tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post5308728389387645223..comments2024-02-28T22:03:57.237-05:00Comments on The Automatic Earth: Debt Rattle, April 27 2008: Keep Your Eyes on the Bond MarketIlargihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-35401043079962110842008-04-28T16:53:00.000-04:002008-04-28T16:53:00.000-04:00I am dumbstruck or struck dumb by the decision to ...I am dumbstruck or struck dumb by the decision to keep such banking secrets in England especially when transparency, lack of trust is the cause for current uncertainty!Why shouldn't a bank suffer a stigma for mismanagement?!Can this really be true and legal, that untold amounts of taxpayers money will be doled out to unnamed banks and the people should just suck it up! I'm sure the average Brit scandiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07924260428840006237noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-52566925007578167072008-04-28T11:46:00.000-04:002008-04-28T11:46:00.000-04:00That Claud Maund article brings up a question in m...That Claud Maund article brings up a question in my mind about who decided to eat who. I have the feeling that the situation was viewed in the east as too stable and served US interests with in particular Iraq and Sadamn as being rather chastened and mailable. <BR/><BR/>When the opportunity of the twin towers presented itself the preparations for the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq were not Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-56268719667366979532008-04-28T09:43:00.000-04:002008-04-28T09:43:00.000-04:00I'm glad I'm not an economist then :)Many of the a...I'm glad I'm not an economist then :)<BR/><BR/>Many of the assumptions built into modern economics are patently untrue - perfect information, perfect competition, self-correcting markets so that market failures should not happen, efficient markets, rational utility maximization etc.<BR/><BR/>Understanding money and power is better done through understanding human nature and the emergent Stoneleighhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15099878430757036461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-3500923085708791052008-04-28T09:02:00.000-04:002008-04-28T09:02:00.000-04:00I appreciated the quote from Ruppert, here is one ...I appreciated the quote from Ruppert, here is one from Jay Hanson: <BR/><BR/>“In other words, the economist serves no function in society except to protect the ruling elites from public scrutiny while they loot the planet.” --<A HREF="http://www.dieoff.org/page185.htm" REL="nofollow"> A MEANS OF CONTROL</A>, 02/00Bigelowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16883913065391637120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-70938825911789903712008-04-28T08:48:00.000-04:002008-04-28T08:48:00.000-04:00Sorry. "Clive" Maund.Sorry. "Clive" Maund.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-8459880748932784052008-04-28T08:47:00.000-04:002008-04-28T08:47:00.000-04:00I read Claud Maund's article this morning (ref. in...I read Claud Maund's article this morning (ref. in a comment above).<BR/><BR/>It's the most depressing thing I've read in a long time.<BR/><BR/>If it's true, we're evil (the U. S.)<BR/><BR/>If it's not true, we're royally screwed.<BR/><BR/>Actually, probably both are true.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-81440623001168616862008-04-28T06:52:00.000-04:002008-04-28T06:52:00.000-04:00GreyZone,Let me clarify further. I expect the decl...GreyZone,<BR/><BR/>Let me clarify further. I expect the decline in oil prices to be temporary, and quite likely in nominal terms only, as demand falls before supply is seriously compromised. The impact of a collapse of the money supply on demand would a a rapid event relative to the decay of infrastructure, although it is possible that the collapse of large parts of the distribution system for 'Stoneleighhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15099878430757036461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-86116601137330303082008-04-28T01:52:00.000-04:002008-04-28T01:52:00.000-04:00Stoneleigh, you just noted that infrastructure is ...Stoneleigh, you just noted that infrastructure is going to be negatively impacted by a depression. A large fraction of the world's oil supply today comes from very complex, advanced and expensive oil infrastructure. That infrastructure is under constant and serious wear. Remove that and oil supply may collapse faster than the economy collapses. Since this is at least possible, the price of oil Greyzonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03675706201111951125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-9570436933968719422008-04-28T01:10:00.000-04:002008-04-28T01:10:00.000-04:00Thanks Stoneleigh, what actually brought that ques...Thanks Stoneleigh, what actually brought that question on was not only Genesis's mention of bonds but as well something I read once about the best position to be in during the '30s, first in cash and then into bonds. This time it, as you say, it will not be in long bonds at any rate.<BR/><BR/>About oil prices, I had this thought. <BR/><BR/>If the total world economic engine is slowing demand Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-48892303871471236812008-04-27T21:32:00.000-04:002008-04-27T21:32:00.000-04:00"The U.S. military is essentially fighting for it'..."The U.S. military is essentially fighting for it's own fuel supply.<BR/><BR/>Incestuous and perverse in the extreme. It's like some twisted variation of an Oedipus Complex.<BR/><BR/>'Mom' is the oil, 'Dad' must be Iraq."<BR/>----------------<BR/><BR/>This is brilliant. <BR/><BR/>Keep thinking.The Lizardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12044779666881689690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-76277099611895091072008-04-27T21:30:00.000-04:002008-04-27T21:30:00.000-04:00Snuffy says:"silenced by cries of "Theres a war go...Snuffy says:<BR/>"silenced by cries of "Theres a war going on!!"ect.ect.ect.The old saing if you only have a hammer,all problems look like nails...may apply."<BR/><BR/>"America" the political entity, having decided that social perfection has been acheived and that therefore all problems we still have are the result of concerted attack by outsiders, tackles all social problem by declaring war. The Lizardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12044779666881689690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-77414307298019959402008-04-27T21:10:00.000-04:002008-04-27T21:10:00.000-04:00Stoneleigh comment:"...I think it (invasion of Ira...Stoneleigh comment:<BR/><BR/>"...I think it (invasion of Iraq) was undertaken to fuel the American military, and that none of the oil is ever likely to be seen by the American consumer..."<BR/><BR/>So true, at TOD this point has never sunk in on the narrow EROI mentality that reigns supreme over there of how actual decisions about energy exploration (exploitation) are made in the world of Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-67773042014572139812008-04-27T20:58:00.000-04:002008-04-27T20:58:00.000-04:00Like so many, I want to thank Stoneleigh and Ilarg...Like so many, I want to thank Stoneleigh and Ilargi for their effort and analyses. Reading TAE is a little like reading the prognosis of oncologists charting my cancer (I don't have cancer, though I certainly live in a world succumbing to cancer.) I have to wonder why I continue to read--and believe it's because I need to know what's happening so I can do what little I can for my family and Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-53085331874951055622008-04-27T20:11:00.000-04:002008-04-27T20:11:00.000-04:00Neighbourhood news...I live in the downtown core o...Neighbourhood news...I live in the downtown core of Guelph ,Canada. Encountered police and distressed people on my way to a meeting this morning. A large quantrant of the downtown core was vandalized during the night. So far no witnesses. Last count 180 cars and counting. CAA making some money towing cars away. Appears to be a well planned assault on car owners? why? by whom?scandiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07924260428840006237noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-74315778535447460812008-04-27T20:00:00.000-04:002008-04-27T20:00:00.000-04:00Crystal Radio,I would recommend short term bonds a...Crystal Radio,<BR/><BR/>I would recommend short term bonds as a cash equivalent, especially if you have too much for it to be practical to keep it all in cash. I don't recommend long bonds though, as yields will rise and prices fall. <BR/><BR/>If you own a long bond and you want your money back, you either have to find a buyer or you have to wait for many years. If your bonds are paying much lessStoneleighhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15099878430757036461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-34869044483194149092008-04-27T19:19:00.000-04:002008-04-27T19:19:00.000-04:00While I agree with Ilargi on many things, includin...While I agree with Ilargi on many things, including that much of economics will be discarded, I still think there is much to be learned from studying how previous bubbles have played out - particularly the serious ones such as the Tulipmania (1630s) and the South Sea Bubble (1720s). The reason is that the best models to describe those events are not 'market models' <I>per se</I>, but human natureStoneleighhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15099878430757036461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-34034591780995196892008-04-27T19:12:00.000-04:002008-04-27T19:12:00.000-04:00ilargi,From what I read Mr. Maund doesn't seem wor...ilargi,<BR/>From what I read Mr. Maund doesn't seem worried that deflation will catch up with the U.S. <BR/><BR/>And an economic collapse would only slightly slow the War industry.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-70993123269612237682008-04-27T18:51:00.000-04:002008-04-27T18:51:00.000-04:00Snuffy and GreyZone,I don't see any crash energy c...Snuffy and GreyZone,<BR/><BR/>I don't see any crash energy conversion programmes, or in fact much of an economy few years down the line. People don't build much of anything in a depression, and they generally have a hard enough time maintaining what they already have. I expect much of our infrastructure to fall into various states of ruin.<BR/><BR/>Initially, I expect a very substantial Stoneleighhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15099878430757036461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-66889248623156937912008-04-27T16:46:00.000-04:002008-04-27T16:46:00.000-04:00greyzYou start off with a bit of a weird idea. I d...greyz<BR/><BR/>You start off with a bit of a weird idea. I don't know of anyone who has claimed that the entire oil price rise is due to the dollar's downturn. So I think there's nothing to refute there.<BR/><BR/>Still, a lot of people in the energy corner -and elsewhere- fail to acknowledge the influence of the currency value shifts, which have been significant. I posted an article on price Ilargihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-61906668550569783182008-04-27T16:18:00.000-04:002008-04-27T16:18:00.000-04:00GZI don't think Stoneleigh or you fundamentally di...GZ<BR/><BR/>I don't think Stoneleigh or you fundamentally disagree that oil will continue to get ever more "expensive". She's just saying that the nominal price will go down as the money supply declines. When $750T fake money tries to convert to 1 or $2T cash, sticker prices on everything, on average, will decline. This is not to say there won't be as many people wanting, but increasingly Farmerodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03492165772535123915noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-30813226501095613222008-04-27T14:49:00.000-04:002008-04-27T14:49:00.000-04:00The allegation that the entirety of oil's recent p...The allegation that the entirety of oil's recent price runup is due solely to the decline of the US dollar is wholly refuted by work done and posted by eastender in the April 27 Drumbeat at TOD. There IS a component of the price increase that is attributable to exchange rate issues and dollar decline. But the larger component remains simply supply/demand scarcity.<BR/><BR/>Therefore, those of youGreyzonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03675706201111951125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-54968640188959990492008-04-27T13:56:00.000-04:002008-04-27T13:56:00.000-04:00The question is how long can an "economy"exist whe...The question is how long can an "economy"exist when the fuel supply that drives it is becoming more scarce and is for all intents,can not be replace in a "timely" manor.2011 is the supposed best guess by most of those at TOD,if recall correctly.That is a hop,skip and jump from now....I don't see crash coal-to-liquid fuel conversion,or anything like what is truly needed to address this...the snuffyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03978637281755386311noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-55952350233881180402008-04-27T13:40:00.000-04:002008-04-27T13:40:00.000-04:00thanks it helps clear up a lot of the circumlocut...thanks it helps clear up a lot of the circumlocution.<BR/><BR/>On a practical consideration of <B>Credit Crack-Up Being Ignored</B> if/when bonds do blow out is that a time one should be looking to begin to move from cash to bonds?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com