tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post62678507676914402..comments2024-02-28T22:03:57.237-05:00Comments on The Automatic Earth: Debt Rattle, February 14 2008Ilargihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-17630346227275654812008-02-15T18:28:00.000-05:002008-02-15T18:28:00.000-05:00The generations do not all believe that the system...The generations do not all believe that the system works, even when you vary around the meanings of "system" and "works." I recommend Strauss and Howe's work 13th Gen: Abort, Retry, Fail, Ignore? For some counter-arguments and evidence to this claim.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-36041311636011628552008-02-15T12:16:00.000-05:002008-02-15T12:16:00.000-05:00Happy to see some thoughts on the intergenerationa...Happy to see some thoughts on the intergenerational aspects. <BR/>The generations all believe that the system works, but mean very different things by "system" and "works". <BR/>This is true intercontinentally, too, of course. <BR/><BR/>The questions are: What is money? What should its posession gain you? In a financial system that is boldly prepared to dump its bad decisions on "the government"The Lizardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12044779666881689690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-36034210730468977262008-02-15T01:02:00.000-05:002008-02-15T01:02:00.000-05:00Ric,Regarding models being removed from reality, i...Ric,<BR/><BR/>Regarding models being removed from reality, it's actually quite common, and not just in regard to financial modeling. I used to research risk management in the nuclear industry, and you wouldn't believe how staggeringly unlikely the accidents at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl were meant to be.<BR/><BR/>Risk models often lead to a false sense of security, sometimes to the point Stoneleighhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15099878430757036461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-9395388697388858872008-02-15T00:43:00.000-05:002008-02-15T00:43:00.000-05:00Happy Valentines Day to you too John :)Thanks for ...Happy Valentines Day to you too John :)<BR/><BR/>Thanks for promoting the site - TOD doesn't want us to put too many links in over there, so links elsewhere definitely help.<BR/><BR/>Brian M,<BR/><BR/>I agree with you about intergenerational issues. When I was living in the UK in the 1990s, I remember people wondering why there were so many instances of joy-riding and ram-raiding (that often leadStoneleighhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15099878430757036461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-56835141911867442402008-02-15T00:27:00.000-05:002008-02-15T00:27:00.000-05:00thanks, john, that's quite a complimentI'd say we'...thanks, john, that's quite a compliment<BR/>I'd say we're still growing into what it is we should be, it's only been 3 weeks after all<BR/><BR/>OC, yes, that is the -unwritten- rule of the game, 2 out of three.<BR/>and I understand FGIC has been downgraded by 3 out of 3 now, not 2, and they need $4 billion, fast<BR/><BR/>I think it's up to the bondholders to decide when to pull the trigger, maybeIlargihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-6304539409480635712008-02-14T20:20:00.001-05:002008-02-14T20:20:00.001-05:00Oh, John, is Samsara... :-)Oh, John, is Samsara... :-)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-76164992529614198772008-02-14T20:20:00.000-05:002008-02-14T20:20:00.000-05:00Nothing to say in particular Ilargi and Stoneleigh...Nothing to say in particular Ilargi and Stoneleigh, Just wanted to say hi, and Love your site. I forward your stuff to my friends and family everyday. (and post links to your site on other blogs to try to get you business).<BR/><BR/>Keep it up. You guys(lady) have a site that is on par with Mish and Calculated risk. Don't give up.<BR/><BR/>John<BR/><BR/>Happy Valentines day Stoneleigh(and Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-6692638202110296152008-02-14T18:20:00.000-05:002008-02-14T18:20:00.000-05:00Ilargi:Fitch and now Moody have downgraded FGIC. D...Ilargi:<BR/>Fitch and now Moody have downgraded FGIC. Does the liquidation of the bonds FGIC insured now get liquidated? <A HREF="www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aapwgCGqv6KI&refer=home/" REL="nofollow">FGIC Loses Aaa Insurance Credit Ratings at Moody's</A>Farmerodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03492165772535123915noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-27966897586065311562008-02-14T17:35:00.000-05:002008-02-14T17:35:00.000-05:00There is another intergenerational problem. The A...There is another intergenerational problem. The Atari-wave X-ers (1960s birth years) played a lot of go-getter piss and vinegar hard ball. But us Nintendo-wave X-ers (1970s birth years) are just too poor to be able to afford most of this stuff. <BR/><BR/>The rich Boomers pushed all the prices into the stratosphere, and the desperate young X-ers took loans they knew they would never be able to Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-87814362136549039452008-02-14T16:57:00.000-05:002008-02-14T16:57:00.000-05:00thm: The young piss-and-vinegar go-getters will t...thm: <I>The young piss-and-vinegar go-getters will try anything that shows a profit, while their parent's generation let them play lest a genius be thwarted.</I><BR/><BR/>The young do what the older won't--and the older take the profits, as though they hide behind the young--and the young are too inexperienced to see. Often think of the Steve Winwood song:<BR/><BR/><I>The man in the suit just Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-33727542828366150432008-02-14T15:40:00.000-05:002008-02-14T15:40:00.000-05:00Big catch over on Oil Drum. Undertow posted this:h...Big catch over on Oil Drum. Undertow posted this:<BR/><BR/>http://www.economicindicators.gov/<BR/><BR/>Looks like the government is getting out of the phony numbers business.Willhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18420772094643482229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-542831974259077962008-02-14T14:32:00.000-05:002008-02-14T14:32:00.000-05:00ric : Is it that when we discover/develop a tool t...ric : <I>Is it that when we discover/develop a tool that makes us money our brains go out the window? Do our minds devolve around money?</I><BR/><BR/>Less than 2 cents:<BR/>The intergenerational dynamics of this crisis have not been mentioned anywhere I've seen, despite frequent references to philosophies and founding fathers.<BR/><BR/>The young piss-and-vinegar go-getters will try anything that The Lizardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12044779666881689690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-82389864736936961652008-02-14T12:59:00.000-05:002008-02-14T12:59:00.000-05:00Regarding Scrap Heap for Financial Models from yes...Regarding <B>Scrap Heap for Financial Models</B> from yesterday.<BR/><BR/>"25 standard deviation events should happen once every 100,000 years; if you think you are seeing them several days in a row, you are merely proving that in reality you have no idea of the characteristics of the risks you are supposedly managing."<BR/><BR/>How can models be so removed from reality? Is it that when we Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com