tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post7317604146853584072..comments2024-02-28T22:03:57.237-05:00Comments on The Automatic Earth: Debt Rattle, March 6 2008: King Midas meets PinokkioIlargihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-86464924163691394582008-03-07T10:18:00.000-05:002008-03-07T10:18:00.000-05:00So,It appears as if you think we have a 4-12 month...So,It appears as if you think we have a 4-12 month window where things will remain "normal...at least on the surface.This is my great concern....too many will feel this is a minor hiccup and be wiped out before they understand the downturn is permanent.Here is the big question.How long before the hard cold truth of the bankruptcy of the USA is evident to the man in the street...3mons.?6,or a year?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-81734115348337301142008-03-07T07:09:00.000-05:002008-03-07T07:09:00.000-05:00Peter,I think insurance companies are in at least ...Peter,<BR/><BR/>I think insurance companies are in at least as much trouble as banks. I wouldn't count on any insurance payouts beyond another year, or perhaps two if you're very lucky. Insurance company assets will be falling in value like everything else, while claims may well increase. For a while they may try to increase premiums, but people's ability to pay any premiums, let alone higher Stoneleighhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15099878430757036461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-44110077003456196242008-03-07T06:38:00.000-05:002008-03-07T06:38:00.000-05:00Ilargi:I haven't seen any comments on the conseque...Ilargi:<BR/><BR/>I haven't seen any comments on the consequences for insurance companies(life, health, property, etc) in this "unwinding", (collapse seems the better term). It is my layman's understanding that the ins. industry holds very large percentage of capital invested in the markets; have they stayed away from the quicksand that has trapped credit institutions, and if so, won't they Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-73233667732698055032008-03-07T02:31:00.000-05:002008-03-07T02:31:00.000-05:00frank,Just sit back and watch it all unwind. If yo...frank,<BR/><BR/>Just sit back and watch it all unwind. If you want to believe all is rosy in Germany, then you better explain the pending labour strikes. As for Scandinavia, please explain the hedge fund debacle that led to three Norwegian towns losing most of their invested money and the eventual fall of the broker that arranged the deals in the first place. A government vetted preferred goritsashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09767556060065779629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-84856100905790796552008-03-06T22:59:00.000-05:002008-03-06T22:59:00.000-05:00http://tinyurl.com/343oot" Bruce Dobish, a buyer o...http://tinyurl.com/343oot<BR/><BR/>" Bruce Dobish, a buyer of distressed real estate and former staffer at now-wobbling bond insurer FGIC, cast the net wider to include credit-rating services.<BR/><BR/>"These (banks) and the ratings agencies and the monolines<BR/><BR/>(bond insurers) tend to be comprised of a lot of youthful, bright individuals who lack real-world experience," Dobish said. "The Lizardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12044779666881689690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-85392404652254291222008-03-06T18:06:00.000-05:002008-03-06T18:06:00.000-05:00Ilargi,banks won't fall like dominos here. So far,...Ilargi,<BR/><BR/>banks won't fall like dominos here. So far, only state banks have been hit. These gangster managers knew damn well that the taxpayer would bail them out anyway.<BR/><BR/>The private banks are not that exposed.<BR/><BR/>You are right about the South and the Netherlands and the UK, and there are housing bubbles in the Baltic countries, but not in Germany. Subprime loans have never Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-3786507396627217272008-03-06T17:49:00.000-05:002008-03-06T17:49:00.000-05:00Frank, There are differences, but my idea is that ...Frank, <BR/><BR/>There are differences, but my idea is that these lie mostly in a time lag. Germany is not OK at all, banks will fall like dominoes there. Holland, Ireland and Club Med will all have housing crises, as will the UK of course. Spain would no longer have a banking system, period, if not for ECB loans. Portugal is a timebomb. You can go on and on.Ilargihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-19213504746948390722008-03-06T17:42:00.000-05:002008-03-06T17:42:00.000-05:00GZ,See the top of the Rattle for Alabama.Hedge fun...GZ,<BR/><BR/>See the top of the Rattle for Alabama.<BR/><BR/>Hedge funds could indeed fall like flies. Towns and counties, I think, would take longer to go down. As I said a few days ago, remember they don't just close shop in case of a bankruptcy.<BR/><BR/>The funds, Thornburg, and the county, by the way, are all broken by banks, a sure sign of how badly these need cash.Ilargihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-22870622229573722922008-03-06T17:38:00.000-05:002008-03-06T17:38:00.000-05:00About Europe:In Europe, there are great difference...About Europe:<BR/><BR/>In Europe, there are great differences. I agree that Spain is in big trouble, and Italy as well, but for very different reasons.<BR/><BR/>In Spain, it's debt and the housing bubble; in Italy the state is the problem. Italy can't debase the Lira any more, a lesson they haven't learnt yet.<BR/><BR/>However, Germany and the Scandinavian countries are not in trouble at all. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-36458405519186150772008-03-06T17:31:00.000-05:002008-03-06T17:31:00.000-05:00Here's a possible next default, ilargi, tomorrow n...Here's a possible next default, ilargi, tomorrow no less.<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aAqdoNgEHP3Q" REL="nofollow">Jefferson County, Alabama</A>.<BR/><BR/>I can't find it now but I also saw news of large late selloffs of 4 additional mortgage companies because of concern of margin calls. With 5 so far this week, are we looking at 2-5 more defaults Greyzonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03675706201111951125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-30865248927952517042008-03-06T17:24:00.000-05:002008-03-06T17:24:00.000-05:00wait, I found one:Ik zeg Allez, allez, Pinokkio, g...wait, I found one:<BR/><BR/>Ik zeg Allez, allez, Pinokkio, <BR/>gij hebt ne neus van hier tot in Tokio<BR/>Pinokkio<BR/>Allez, allez, Pinokkio, <BR/>gij hebt ne neus van hier tot in Tokio<BR/>PinokkioIlargihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-44206103773643891522008-03-06T17:21:00.000-05:002008-03-06T17:21:00.000-05:00I think the questioning of Countrywide CEO by Cong...I think the questioning of Countrywide CEO by Congress / shareholders is so funny. <BR/><BR/>For years in the US the pay of CEOs and CFOs has been thousands of times the pay of the average employee. The most dramatic example was ENRON, at the end Ken Lay died of natural causes and his family and children kept it all for themselves...<BR/><BR/>But this is part of the american dream, people would Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-27693544700854045482008-03-06T17:19:00.000-05:002008-03-06T17:19:00.000-05:00anoncouldn't find anything to rhyme that with?anon<BR/><BR/>couldn't find anything to rhyme that with?Ilargihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-2900493413496515532008-03-06T17:16:00.000-05:002008-03-06T17:16:00.000-05:00Wj,got that covered up topWj,<BR/><BR/>got that covered up topIlargihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-28514322332523607322008-03-06T17:07:00.000-05:002008-03-06T17:07:00.000-05:00pinocchio pinocchio pinocchio pinocchio pi...pinocchio <BR/> pinocchio <BR/> pinocchio <BR/> pinocchio <BR/> pinocchio <BR/> pinocchioAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-72521099905980051862008-03-06T16:17:00.000-05:002008-03-06T16:17:00.000-05:00Another situation first predicted here at TAE. Th...Another situation first predicted here at TAE. These are some tough decisions to make.<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9oKKILjhepg&refer=home" REL="nofollow">Alabama County Won't Pledge $184 Million for Swaps</A>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-59224892491519197432008-03-06T13:16:00.000-05:002008-03-06T13:16:00.000-05:00And... another one's gone, another one's gone, ano...And... another one's gone, another one's gone, another one bites the dust!<BR/><BR/>Today, Carlyle defaults. That's 5 margin call defaults in 4 days. And we've only just begun...<BR/><BR/>Yep, I'm in a silly mood and laughing at all this because it is absurd and otherwise I'd just cry.Greyzonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03675706201111951125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-27072677675370268122008-03-06T12:07:00.000-05:002008-03-06T12:07:00.000-05:00Shibbly,The Bank of Japan held interest rates at e...Shibbly,<BR/><BR/>The Bank of Japan held interest rates at essentially zero for a long period of time, trying to revive the domestic economy after the bursting of the Nikkei bubble in 1989. The yen carry trade developed as investors borrowed yen to invest in other countries where interest rates were higher, earning large returns. Japan was thus a major engine of global liquidity for years. <BR/><Stoneleighhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15099878430757036461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-88002073839626991922008-03-06T11:46:00.000-05:002008-03-06T11:46:00.000-05:00Because of that date issue, which I didn't know ho...Because of that date issue, which I didn't know how to fix, I deleted the whole post and put it up again. Only thing lost was the comments. That I anticipated, so here they are:<BR/><BR/>4 COMMENTS:<BR/><BR/>Anonymous said...<BR/>March 9?<BR/><BR/>MARCH 6, 2008 10:22 AM <BR/><BR/><BR/>Anonymous said...<BR/>Can you folks check this item out and dissect..<BR/>Reuters:<BR/><BR/>UPDATE 2-Bank of Ilargihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.com