tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post7587048178620437731..comments2024-02-28T22:03:57.237-05:00Comments on The Automatic Earth: Debt Rattle, July 11 2008: Shrined in ice the spirits stoodIlargihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-41320594839516584932008-07-12T13:56:00.000-04:002008-07-12T13:56:00.000-04:00ilargi, from this bit you pointed out in the comme...ilargi, from this bit you pointed out in the comments below:<BR/><BR/><I>Congress passed the Competitive Equality Banking Act of 1987, making the government legally liable for obligations of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.</I><BR/><BR/>combined with this from Denninger at Market Ticker yesterday:<BR/><BR/><I>Ben dissembled. But what he said was in fact important - the answer he gave was, in Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-68728003016630387432008-07-12T11:16:00.000-04:002008-07-12T11:16:00.000-04:00Dark Matter,You are absolutely right about social ...Dark Matter,<BR/><BR/>You are absolutely right about social security and federal entitlements being a Ponzi scheme, critically dependent on new entrants to make the payouts to the existing ones. As the pool of new entrants cannot keep pace, and is set to shrink due to demographics and financial upheaval, social security will inevitably collapse. It won't take a long time either, as contraction ofStoneleighhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15099878430757036461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-43309917136445299132008-07-12T11:10:00.000-04:002008-07-12T11:10:00.000-04:00The articles we post show that collective fear is ...The articles we post show that collective fear is increasing, as it always does during the latter stages of a declining phase (in this case since May 19th). I think fear will spike to an even greater extent into the coming short-term bottom, but then we should see a rally where fear will abate - even though nothing about the situation will have materially changed - and people may well drop back Stoneleighhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15099878430757036461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-17633280143134411222008-07-12T11:04:00.000-04:002008-07-12T11:04:00.000-04:00As far as I can tell the whole 401K thing is just ...As far as I can tell the whole 401K thing is just another pyramid scheme like Social Security and Federal entitlements programs. A huge amount of money in one place for managers to manipulate to their benefit. The first half or so of the participants (read "The Greatest Generation") do well but the bottom half pay in but never get a pay out. I wish I had never put a nickel into my 401K but had Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-70394769318382261642008-07-12T09:18:00.000-04:002008-07-12T09:18:00.000-04:00I am very grateful for this blog and especially to...I am very grateful for this blog and especially to S&I for their insight and wisdom which is helping me to better understand this financial crisis and to take steps to prepare for the future. It has caused me to do a lot of serious thinking and everyday another piece of the financial mess becomes clearer. <BR/><BR/>Unfortunately, most of my family is still clueless, though for the past month I Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-30055662628707291582008-07-12T06:33:00.000-04:002008-07-12T06:33:00.000-04:00Musashi,I didn't intend to say bulls are crazy. I ...Musashi,I didn't intend to say bulls are crazy. I have been categorizing them as " cheerleaders". There must be more to their position than that. As " bear" fits my own view I realize I am not seeking a bull view. Is there a good bull site I can check out.scandiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07924260428840006237noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-62148775627453014662008-07-12T00:15:00.000-04:002008-07-12T00:15:00.000-04:00Hey CR, how are things?Hot out here in the desert,...Hey CR, how are things?<BR/><BR/>Hot out here in the desert, especially in the back country. <BR/><BR/><BR/>Scandia,<BR/>A lot of the bulls aren't crazy, they are just locked into boxes that force their moves.<BR/>The only time one has 100% freedom and flexibility is when being totally unleveraged and playing with house money.VLADhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07303463697333210934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-34353865161758596592008-07-11T23:34:00.000-04:002008-07-11T23:34:00.000-04:00Mish writes today:"The credit bubble has popped. F...Mish <A HREF="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/07/fannie-and-freddie-waterfalls-are-too.html" REL="nofollow"><BR/>writes</A> today:<BR/><BR/><I>"The credit bubble has popped. Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE), Washington Mutual (WM), Wachovia (WB), and Lehman (LEH) are all at serious risk. Many smaller payers are at huge risk as well"</I>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-9455429140540086032008-07-11T23:11:00.000-04:002008-07-11T23:11:00.000-04:00EB,You said: I'd rather be liquid, wrong, and "los...EB,<BR/><BR/>You said: <I>I'd rather be liquid, wrong, and "lose out on gains" than be right and fail to act, leaving all my family's resources tied up in almost worthless stocks and securities.</I><BR/><BR/>This is an important point - it's called minimizing the consequences of being wrong. If I'm wrong in my assessment of the future, I haven't really lost anything by thinking about where the Stoneleighhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15099878430757036461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-31009139304032854172008-07-11T23:04:00.000-04:002008-07-11T23:04:00.000-04:00ebrown said "However, I'd rather be liquid, wrong,...ebrown said "However, I'd rather be liquid, wrong, and "lose out on gains" than be right and fail to act, leaving all my family's resources tied up in almost worthless stocks and securities."<BR/><BR/>I'm with you 100%. I've pulled everything I can out of the market and used it to pay down debt (no point in holding cash). I liquidated an older 401k, which raised quite a few eyebrows. I haven'tAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-54722187068767584532008-07-11T22:04:00.000-04:002008-07-11T22:04:00.000-04:00Oh, by the by,IndyMac got shut down late today, as...Oh, by the by,<BR/><BR/>IndyMac got shut down late today, as you may have read. After the bell on Friday..... Timing is everything.<BR/><BR/>All $16 billion of its deposits covered by the FDIC's $51 billion in reserves. I'm curious to see how fast that will all be paid back.<BR/><BR/>Will the FDIC take over Freddie Mac, or will the Fed open a discount window for Fan and Fred?<BR/><BR/>I thought Ilargihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-74450096533744582412008-07-11T20:28:00.000-04:002008-07-11T20:28:00.000-04:00I second Scandia's comment there. I am (sort of) ...I second Scandia's comment there. I am (sort of) new to thinking deeply about financial matters, and really trying to understand the system. I'm OK with being an ignoramus about how it works, and this has allowed me to learn a good deal in a fairly short period.<BR/><BR/>I have ideas similar to those Ilargi just wrote about, energy, environment - these are realms I understand fairly well both EBrownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02894676347259218501noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-37838718142237854652008-07-11T20:13:00.000-04:002008-07-11T20:13:00.000-04:00Ilargi,Thanks for the info. While we are probably...Ilargi,<BR/>Thanks for the info. While we are probably quite different people, I've always sensed something in your work that reminded me of myself. Scandia is right: there is a lot of kindness on this site and I appreciate it as well.<BR/><BR/>FWIW, I spent 20 years outside academia independently researching and writing (10 years full time, 10 part-time). When I finally finished, I began Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-60548321031145288932008-07-11T19:47:00.000-04:002008-07-11T19:47:00.000-04:00Ilargi, Much food for thought and feeling in your ...Ilargi, Much food for thought and feeling in your words...especially resonating is, "the point of focus lies beyond the stone." I feel like I've been wacked by the Zen stick! <BR/>My interest in the economy isn't about money or wealth.I have little materially to lose, not much " skin in the game". I am engaged somewhat like you in the human being drama( history ) which leads to self perception asscandiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07924260428840006237noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-65801916381005769862008-07-11T19:04:00.000-04:002008-07-11T19:04:00.000-04:00I was early because I had to leave at 7.15 am.Scan...I was early because I had to leave at 7.15 am.<BR/><BR/>Scandia, nice compliments, but not deserved, there were surely plenty who saw it all before I did.<BR/><BR/>The specific info you ask about is I think simple annoyance at reading nonsense and lies, plus some basic things on who really owns this society, and probably most of all trendlines in various sectors of the economy and the world it Ilargihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-12826505130500555962008-07-11T18:04:00.000-04:002008-07-11T18:04:00.000-04:00Hey luv ya musashi, if the bull shearers don't get...Hey luv ya musashi, if the bull shearers don't get us, you will send us to the guy that skins bears:)<BR/><BR/><I>If you are interested, listen-only is $150 and Q&A access is $450</I><BR/><BR/>So 150 smackaroonies to go back in time to the days of eavesdropping on a party line? I guess the 450 clam Q&A is so you can complain about the previous?<BR/><BR/>Nice to see you are back, I was starting toAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-32459804219754709132008-07-11T17:21:00.000-04:002008-07-11T17:21:00.000-04:00fb,Wise words,good advice. Merci.fb,Wise words,good advice. Merci.scandiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07924260428840006237noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-71711941648478473052008-07-11T17:05:00.000-04:002008-07-11T17:05:00.000-04:00Hello,In response to Scandia, I observe that many ...Hello,<BR/><BR/>In response to Scandia, I observe that many people do not think outside the box and even among those that do, many feel bound not to stray too far from the current consensus. Was it not Lincoln who said that leaders must be ahead of the public, but not too much ?<BR/><BR/>Many times, if one wishes to be taken seriously, one must walk very softly. With family and friends, I startedAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-38137447179647932642008-07-11T16:52:00.000-04:002008-07-11T16:52:00.000-04:00Honing the question...A " bull" must have evidence...Honing the question...A " bull" must have evidence in support of a bull position. What would that be? Any bulls out there reading TAE?<BR/>Am I naive to assume that anyone sitting on the Finance Committee in Ottawa knows what we know here. So why are they not speaking up and out?scandiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07924260428840006237noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-23233064420941972452008-07-11T16:20:00.000-04:002008-07-11T16:20:00.000-04:00fb, I too have read this " paper" by Stoneleigh- t...fb, I too have read this " paper" by Stoneleigh- twice in fact. Reading it again from the perspective of my question was again enlightening. I change my question. I can see how S@I drew their conclusion and chose to warn a few folks like us. The question now is that many economists/financiers must have had access to the same information and perspective. So why didn't they share it with the publicscandiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07924260428840006237noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-7195382802240391392008-07-11T15:04:00.000-04:002008-07-11T15:04:00.000-04:00Linda,Lots of money out there, and most of it is d...Linda,<BR/><BR/>Lots of money out there, and most of it is dumb as a rock.<BR/><BR/>The "Shearing of the Bulls" is a fabulous sport.<BR/><BR/>http://realestateandhousing2.blogspot.com/2008/07/financials-zero-zip-zilch-znobeli.htmlVLADhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07303463697333210934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-85954554492727678292008-07-11T14:54:00.000-04:002008-07-11T14:54:00.000-04:00Hello,In response to Scandia's question as to how ...Hello,<BR/><BR/>In response to Scandia's question as to how S&I knew and know, I would again advise this:<BR/>http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2871<BR/><BR/>The information is there. If you understand it (and it is designed for non-experts), everything happening now is foreseeable.<BR/><BR/>That being said, I had to read it three times at three-month intervals to really nail some of the concepts Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-14656624612422194372008-07-11T14:50:00.000-04:002008-07-11T14:50:00.000-04:00Although Martin Weiss (Money and Markets) talks in...Although Martin Weiss (Money and Markets) talks inflation, he recently did a bit on <BR/><A HREF="http://moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?How-to-Prepare-for-the-NEXT-Panic-1937" REL="nofollow"> How to Prepare for the NEXT Panic</A>. <BR/><BR/>As he shows there is another way to play this. <A HREF="http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/1003/Guide-to-Inverse-ETFs.pdf" REL="nofollow"> Comprehensive List Bigelowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16883913065391637120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-62553060939421807592008-07-11T12:38:00.000-04:002008-07-11T12:38:00.000-04:00Linda,I'm a newbie too as of the beginning of the ...Linda,I'm a newbie too as of the beginning of the year! good question.<BR/>I've been thinking the 'Hot" money is looking for action and the returns would be high due to the risk.Some scope for money laundering here, I'd think. Let's see what more experienced readers have to say...scandiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07924260428840006237noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-682640541852971062008-07-11T12:28:00.000-04:002008-07-11T12:28:00.000-04:00I am fairly new to your blog, and struggling to wa...I am fairly new to your blog, and struggling to wade through economics lingo that I know almost nil about. But I "get" that the situation is dire. I have a really stoopid newby question though. When I read about how highly leveraged Fannie/Freddie are, and how they and other financial institutions are struggling to raise capital - at a time when their shares are dropping like stones and the Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com