tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post8720067699397331521..comments2024-02-28T22:03:57.237-05:00Comments on The Automatic Earth: Debt Rattle, May 25 2008: PayheydayIlargihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-67454473695897830182008-05-26T11:37:00.000-04:002008-05-26T11:37:00.000-04:00"Anyone who had previously swapped Treasuries for ..."Anyone who had previously swapped Treasuries for GSE paper would then be a winner, right?"<BR/><BR/>You may be right in terms of the relative value between treasuries and GSE paper, but the USD would take such a huge hit that it would be a terrible investment relative to any other method of storing value.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-27970240877042942872008-05-26T05:01:00.000-04:002008-05-26T05:01:00.000-04:00"There is no logical reason that I can see for for..."There is no logical reason that I can see for foreign central banks to trade treasuries for GSE paper unless there are juicy incentives. Or the Fed has plans to do something awful to treasuries. But that is speculation."<BR/><BR/>Suppose there is a great big stupid bailout of GSEs in the wind? A Resolution Trust. Imagine Congress passes a law EXPLICITLY guranteeing GSE paper, and sets up a trustAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-18865532736633913712008-05-25T23:51:00.000-04:002008-05-25T23:51:00.000-04:00Hi kyput, Here is something from Noam Chompsky abo...Hi kyput, Here is something from <A HREF="http://www.chomsky.info/talks/20061215.htm" REL="nofollow">Noam Chompsky</A> about US involvement in oil, I would think that the US administration is and has been very well aware of the value of oil in more ways than I imagine we will ever be, peak oil would be nothing new under their sun and by implication under those bankers' sun.<BR/><BR/><I>And Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-52083578602681215752008-05-25T22:43:00.000-04:002008-05-25T22:43:00.000-04:00CR,I don't really know if its #1 or #2so don't fee...CR,<BR/><BR/>I don't really know if its #1 or #2so don't feel bad you can't really disagree with me since I am not really set on any answer. I'm just trying to learn more because its fun and I like it and if the world is going to hell in a hand basket I might as well have some fun while I try and prepare best I can.<BR/><BR/>On #2 I just like to imagine what they are doing if indeed it is so.<BRAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-12804801533944360772008-05-25T22:19:00.000-04:002008-05-25T22:19:00.000-04:00ilargi,Right on!:)ilargi,<BR/>Right on!:)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-36044480910622078612008-05-25T21:21:00.000-04:002008-05-25T21:21:00.000-04:00GZ,I don't agree on 1: There is no logical reason ...GZ,<BR/><BR/>I don't agree on 1: There is no logical reason that I can see for foreign central banks to trade treasuries for GSE paper unless there are juicy incentives. Or the Fed has plans to do something awful to treasuries. But that is speculation.<BR/><BR/>I agree very much on 2: The psychological implications of the downfall are very poorly understood. The human mind works in one direction Ilargihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-19764713909565767912008-05-25T21:12:00.000-04:002008-05-25T21:12:00.000-04:00kypat, Your first explanation I think is the simpl...kypat, Your first explanation I think is the simpler so likelier to be correct as it gives to the rich and then off loads to the rest of us. In the second I would ask you how would they orchestrate an international conspiracy so as to end with that controlled deflation? ( Let me know if I am being dense and have missed your point there)<BR/><BR/>About the value of 'brightest minds' ... have you Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-24883859528243540642008-05-25T19:23:00.000-04:002008-05-25T19:23:00.000-04:00“Without the US invasion of Iraq oil would be $40 ...“Without the US invasion of Iraq oil would be $40 a barrel. Or so claims this economist.”<BR/><BR/>So just assume Iraq’s pre-invasion oil production, project growth in world demand, adjust for effect of earth’s rotation, wind drift and a lack of an ‘r’ in the month, find its inverse twice finally to extrapolate what the price should be …<BR/>naw.Bigelowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16883913065391637120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-7287534205032032542008-05-25T19:04:00.000-04:002008-05-25T19:04:00.000-04:00Ilargi,Regarding central bank swaps, you ask what ...Ilargi,<BR/><BR/>Regarding central bank swaps, you ask what would sweeten the deal. Perhaps nothing is required at all, aside from the knowledge that they have created a monstrosity so huge that they will all go down together if it fails. And thus this extra action, to further obfuscate the real depths of the problem.<BR/><BR/>Indeed, if they could pass this "debt" around the world like a hot Greyzonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03675706201111951125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-61490610214940748082008-05-25T18:44:00.000-04:002008-05-25T18:44:00.000-04:00Kypat,My vote is for scenario #1 (although Ilargi ...Kypat,<BR/><BR/>My vote is for scenario #1 (although Ilargi would disagree with me). A trader who was once asked who he would like to be reincarnated as if such a thing were possible, answered "The bond market - then I could boss everyone around." The bond market represents the power of the collective, and my view is that the collective is far stronger than central bankers.<BR/><BR/>The problem Stoneleighhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15099878430757036461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-58346189464562384012008-05-25T17:55:00.000-04:002008-05-25T17:55:00.000-04:00CRNot sure I know what you mean to say. Even if yo...CR<BR/><BR/>Not sure I know what you mean to say. Even if you believe, and that is religion, not knowledge, that a non-invasion of Iraq would have led to oil prices 60-70-80% below what they are now, there is no proof.<BR/><BR/>But this guy is one more doofus who claims to know, though he knows very well he doesn't know, and is believed because he is presented, by a reporter who should know Ilargihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-74211246646476447632008-05-25T15:30:00.000-04:002008-05-25T15:30:00.000-04:00Re: Oil: A global crisis Ilargi, you say: Predicta...Re: Oil: A global crisis <BR/><BR/><BR/>Ilargi, you say:<I> Predictably, the decrease in oil supply, and the resulting price hikes, lead to a vast increase in stupid analyses by "experts". Without the US invasion of Iraq oil would be $40 a barrel. Or so claims this economist. Of course he doesn’t know that, he has no proof of it, but that doesn’t matter.</I><BR/><BR/>Hi ilagi, don't generally Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-2211826534142037482008-05-25T14:11:00.000-04:002008-05-25T14:11:00.000-04:00Stoneleigh & Ilargi,I just wanted to say thanks fo...Stoneleigh & Ilargi,<BR/><BR/>I just wanted to say thanks for all your efforts. I think this is the best financial blog on the net and I read a few. <BR/><BR/>I also wanted to say that your reporting has helped me increase my financial understanding and protect my investments and help close members of my community. So thanks--your work is appreciated. <BR/><BR/>Things are messy and there Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com