tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post9038592345316985584..comments2024-02-28T22:03:57.237-05:00Comments on The Automatic Earth: January 12 2009: I ain't got no homeIlargihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comBlogger81125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-76085606527141154912009-01-13T18:43:00.000-05:002009-01-13T18:43:00.000-05:00two points:1. I think I tend towards stoneleigh's ...two points:<BR/><BR/>1. I think I tend towards stoneleigh's view of the fundamental irrationality of the market, and I'd expand that irrationality to cover human nature in general. In other words, I really don't think we have much of a clue at all about why we do anything. We certainly think we do, but that's another story.<BR/><BR/>Sometimes people might get ideas that end up working out, which Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-1740632441556895642009-01-13T18:22:00.000-05:002009-01-13T18:22:00.000-05:00Weaseldog, I'm referring to best currently accepte...Weaseldog, I'm referring to best currently accepted scientific understanding when I use the term 'currently accepted', and when I use the term 'pop' I'm referring to a misreading and misunderstanding of the current best scientific understanding, which itself largely has no actual scientific foundation, but pretends it does.<BR/><BR/>I posted that last comment as merely a suggestion of something Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-9151477214333322052009-01-13T17:29:00.000-05:002009-01-13T17:29:00.000-05:00Hi Weaseldog and El Gallinazo,So its interesting t...Hi Weaseldog and El Gallinazo,<BR/><BR/>So its interesting to read your thinking in sequence. <BR/><BR/>especially:<BR/><BR/>"...natural resources "inspired" the miscreants to create the giant bubble / Ponzi Scheme because they could no longer "grow" in real terms."<BR/><BR/>My alternate take on the mechanism prompting the "miscreants" as posted earlier in the thread focused on rising investment Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-59677648941727686702009-01-13T16:29:00.000-05:002009-01-13T16:29:00.000-05:00I do believe peak oil is linked to the financial c...I do believe peak oil is linked to the financial crisis, the high oil prices led to the acceleration of the current crisis.<BR/><BR/>I remember a Michael Panzner Interview on financial sense recently where he said what he thought would unfold in 5 years happened in 18 months! This from a bloke whose written a book called Financial Armageddon. Most bloggers are surprised with the speed and Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-19497745440718406782009-01-13T16:19:00.000-05:002009-01-13T16:19:00.000-05:00Ilargi said... "You can turn it on its head and as...Ilargi said... "You can turn it on its head and ask: if we'd had plenty oil, would the economy have kept going as it was? And the answer is: no, there's no way, because the overall leverage is way too high."<BR/><BR/>If the industry can grow as fast as the money supply, then yes, these Ponzi Schemes would continue.<BR/><BR/>It's because natural resources are finite, and growth is exponential, Weaseldoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12657976442272800800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-61296184944330217102009-01-13T16:09:00.000-05:002009-01-13T16:09:00.000-05:00Wow,been reading all these comments and I must say...Wow,been reading all these comments and I must say I'm totally amazed at the high level of discourse on display here. It's great flying with you people.willnotbillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07162194610773457577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-15011679555248056532009-01-13T16:08:00.001-05:002009-01-13T16:08:00.001-05:00Ilargi,Am I understanding your analysis correctly...Ilargi,<BR/><BR/>Am I understanding your analysis correctly?<BR/><BR/>So the economic collapse we're having today is independent of Peak Oil. Nevertheless, Greenspan, Cheney, the Project for the New American Century and others who have been aware of Peak Oil for some time thought that it was necessary to create a housing bubble for the sake of the elites (reap profits and steal from taxpayers) Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-29989428748890445072009-01-13T16:08:00.000-05:002009-01-13T16:08:00.000-05:00I'm afraid I agree with El Gallinazo.The effects o...I'm afraid I agree with El Gallinazo.<BR/><BR/>The effects of Peak Oil fueled their desperation. Ten years ago, I was arguing that this was a logical outcome of Peak Oil. That the Fed and the government as a whole would work in a frenzy to drive the economy forward. That they would effectively open the presses to produce money at ever faster rates to stimulate the economy.<BR/><BR/>Every nation Weaseldoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12657976442272800800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-68204680964826960302009-01-13T15:50:00.000-05:002009-01-13T15:50:00.000-05:00Anyone else notice that the Euro is collapsing aga...Anyone else notice that the Euro is collapsing against the USD and the yen?el gallinazohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00642036843036726232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-35753286004453465782009-01-13T15:47:00.000-05:002009-01-13T15:47:00.000-05:00Ilargi,I agree with your last comment. But I thin...Ilargi,<BR/><BR/>I agree with your last comment. But I think that peak oil and diminishing natural resources "inspired" the miscreants to create the giant bubble / Ponzi Scheme because they could no longer "grow" in real terms.el gallinazohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00642036843036726232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-64948143284105345612009-01-13T15:37:00.000-05:002009-01-13T15:37:00.000-05:00Guys,We. as in Stoneleigh and me, do understand en...Guys,<BR/><BR/>We. as in Stoneleigh and me, do understand energy, coming over from the Oil Drum and all. That said, I still think it's essential to comprehend that the financial collapse we see today has zilch to do with peak oil. Other than the hypothesis I reiterated earlier, that is. <BR/><BR/>A Ponzi this big would have blown up even in the best of times. The attempt to make a connection Ilargihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-25510096179283661762009-01-13T14:49:00.000-05:002009-01-13T14:49:00.000-05:00Uncertain, picking out pop psychology from what is...Uncertain, picking out pop psychology from what is currently accepted, is a slippery slope...<BR/><BR/>What is currently accepted, varies according to who you ask.Weaseldoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12657976442272800800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-87909421006666534152009-01-13T14:23:00.000-05:002009-01-13T14:23:00.000-05:00Re behavioral constraints, this month's Scientific...Re behavioral constraints, this month's Scientific American has a good overview of a range of current Evolutionary theory, including a large section on pop psychology as it relates to our understanding of human behavior. <BR/><BR/>I suggest taking a look at that before deciding what does or does not form the cornerstones of human behavior, at least as far as best current scientific understanding Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-38099208451970501972009-01-13T14:19:00.000-05:002009-01-13T14:19:00.000-05:00Some very good discussion here today. I am intrig...Some very good discussion here today. I am intrigued by the Theramus Thesis, though my line of thinking has always been more aligned with what Uncertain said, i.e., as material limits started to matter more the natural tendency of the financial system was to "innovate" into ever more disconnected-from-reality financial products. This allowed the illusion of growth to continue with only minor Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-12742955107283344212009-01-13T14:17:00.000-05:002009-01-13T14:17:00.000-05:00Mugabe said..."In defense of Springsteen for backi...<B>Mugabe said...</B><BR/><BR/><I>"In defense of Springsteen for backing Obama in the recent campaign -- BO is one slick liar who fooled a lot of people"</I><BR/><BR/>Like all politicians Obama said and did what he had to in order to get elected. Promises made, promises broken. Works every time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-69609528823848035862009-01-13T14:16:00.000-05:002009-01-13T14:16:00.000-05:00We are constrained by our behavior evolved over bi...We are constrained by our behavior evolved over billions of years. Without a predator most species overshoot until there is a change in the environment I believe.<BR/><BR/>It's hardwired into us genetically and unfortunately for us we are a plague species. There's a nice book that is usually displayed under stoneleigh's favorites that says it all, "stupid till the last drop". <BR/><BR/>Monkey buyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-22371933704729761742009-01-13T14:03:00.000-05:002009-01-13T14:03:00.000-05:00Theramus, I tend to see these matters more or less...Theramus, I tend to see these matters more or less as you, and Weaseldog, suggest. Why? Because I believe there are material, ie, real, foundations for our systems, always, in all cases, even if we pretend to ourselves that we have transcended such mundane matters as earth, air, fire, and water.<BR/><BR/>I also more or less tend to, while maintaining my uncertainty, agree with the time line you Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-36006457440983804512009-01-13T14:02:00.000-05:002009-01-13T14:02:00.000-05:00To be simplistic, I see it as sort of a relay race...To be simplistic, I see it as sort of a relay race where peak oil and deflation/demand destruction take turns carrying the contraction baton. I think we all agree that peak oil started the collapse, is the most fundamental factor, and forced Da Boyz to blow their bubbles to buy as much time as they could. I think right now, Depression is carrying the baton and peak oil can take a breather for el gallinazohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00642036843036726232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-50963506201508225562009-01-13T13:57:00.000-05:002009-01-13T13:57:00.000-05:00Theramus, when energy supplies are growing, growth...Theramus, when energy supplies are growing, growth has the illusion of being boundless. Every dream that can be imagined seems possible.<BR/><BR/>Even Ponzi Schemes grow with abandon, and without fear of failure during these periods.<BR/><BR/>One little hiccup in the energy supply chain, and it all falls apart.Weaseldoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12657976442272800800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-81210546082592996632009-01-13T13:55:00.000-05:002009-01-13T13:55:00.000-05:00Theramus, the ideas you presented, fit neatly into...Theramus, the ideas you presented, fit neatly into this cyclic view of boom and bust.Weaseldoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12657976442272800800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-78945047271682595922009-01-13T13:54:00.000-05:002009-01-13T13:54:00.000-05:00El Gallinazo, I see what you're getting at.I don't...El Gallinazo, I see what you're getting at.<BR/><BR/>I don't think that I see 'Peak Oil Effects' quite the way others do.<BR/><BR/>That leaves me appearing very pessimistic, as compared to other 'Peak Oil Doomers'.<BR/><BR/>What troubles me, is that I never seem to be pessimistic enough to keep up with reality.<BR/><BR/>I was writing and arguing about this mortgage bailout/rescue in 2005. I Weaseldoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12657976442272800800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-66022528017455552352009-01-13T13:41:00.000-05:002009-01-13T13:41:00.000-05:00Weaseldog,I think you and I are at a similar place...Weaseldog,<BR/>I think you and I are at a similar place on the edge of this abyss.<BR/><BR/>I'd be curious to hear whether or not you have thoughts on possible linkage between the post-peak boom-big bust cycles you describe and my attempts earlier in this discussion to understand factors contributing to the "bad behavior" financial industry since yr 2000 ?<BR/><BR/>I agree oil and economics is Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-41012959285201545102009-01-13T13:39:00.000-05:002009-01-13T13:39:00.000-05:00Ilargi said... "I've had a running "squabble" with...Ilargi said... "I've had a running "squabble" with Jeffrey Brown, Westexas at The Oil Drum, who seeks out oil as the driving force behind the collapsing financial markets. I have always maintained that these markets needed no help in their collapse."<BR/><BR/>Our economic system needs infinite growth to stay healthy. To maintain it, it needs infinite industrial growth.<BR/><BR/>Now, because Weaseldoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12657976442272800800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-42009231751027399102009-01-13T13:16:00.000-05:002009-01-13T13:16:00.000-05:00WeaseldogI think your differences with Greyzone ar...Weaseldog<BR/><BR/>I think your differences with Greyzone are simply semantic. The collapse of the world economy in an L-shaped depression will make the immediate effects of peak oil less pronounced and extend it more into the future. Reduced eating does cure a moderate famine if everyone is grossly obese :-)<BR/><BR/>As Stoneleigh points our repeatedly, the collapse will result in less el gallinazohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00642036843036726232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-83000273866540408142009-01-13T13:08:00.000-05:002009-01-13T13:08:00.000-05:00El Gallinazo,Nice post. Need to think it over some...El Gallinazo,<BR/><BR/>Nice post. Need to think it over some. <BR/><BR/>I agree Greenspan has nearly always talked nonsense... but that's not to say he did not say something interesting this one time. <BR/><BR/>This tom needs to lick his wounds for a while.... turns out saliva has natural healing properties.<BR/><BR/>Best wishes,<BR/><BR/>TheramusAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com