tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post2403900449668216590..comments2024-02-28T22:03:57.237-05:00Comments on The Automatic Earth: Shaving swans at partiesIlargihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-30253757689852073342008-06-02T20:57:00.000-04:002008-06-02T20:57:00.000-04:00Thanks musashi but I guess I should have expressed...Thanks musashi but I guess I should have expressed myself better, what is the Dostoevsky story, that one with the white cow:)<BR/><BR/>I think you are right about the colourization ...green!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-47695590772899907622008-06-02T16:09:00.000-04:002008-06-02T16:09:00.000-04:00No anonymous, the chance of a FAIR coin coming up ...No anonymous, the chance of a FAIR coin coming up heads once is (about) 50%.<BR/><BR/>The odds of a fair coin coming up heads 40 times in a row is in the 10E-12 or 13 range (depending on just how close to fair a "fair" coin is). <BR/><BR/>What are the odds that a coin that has come up heads 40 times will come up heads the NEXT time? It depends whether the coin is fair or not. In math land, you Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-72866455849602658292008-06-02T15:35:00.000-04:002008-06-02T15:35:00.000-04:00CRExact same line of reasoning using the opposite ...CR<BR/>Exact same line of reasoning using the opposite image.<BR/><BR/>Black Swan = 1 / White Crow<BR/><BR/>Both equally rare birds based on general knowledge at the time of the writings.<BR/>Taleb at most colorized the original film.VLADhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07303463697333210934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-61488467798997771872008-06-02T14:20:00.000-04:002008-06-02T14:20:00.000-04:00Chances coin coming up heads in one flip is 50% (o...Chances coin coming up heads in <B>one flip</B> is 50% (or 0.5).<BR/>Chances that 41 <B>consecutive flips all</B> coming up heads are 0.5 ^ 41 = 4.5 * 10^-13.<BR/><BR/>Fat Tony and Dr John are both right, they are just answering different questions.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-70726060890512536672008-06-02T12:24:00.000-04:002008-06-02T12:24:00.000-04:00He didn’t understand, they said. A few months late...<I>He didn’t understand, they said. A few months later, the full global implications of the sub-prime-driven credit crunch became clear.</I><BR/><BR/><BR/>ilargi and Stoneleigh, I think you two were well aware in that regard before the event, so it couldn't have been a black swan, but then, since most 'economists' didn't recognize it, for them it couldn't have been a white swan.<BR/><BR/>Mind if Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-45355078276395647302008-06-02T12:12:00.000-04:002008-06-02T12:12:00.000-04:00The black swan thing isn't plagarism of Dostoevsky...The black swan thing isn't plagarism of Dostoevsky. Its been a philosophical cliche in the Anglo tradition since John Stuart Mill's 1843 book A System of Logic. I heard the example used a number of times while I was going though school before this Taleb guy ever wrote his stuff.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-14543069191036185962008-06-01T22:30:00.000-04:002008-06-01T22:30:00.000-04:00The comments about Taleb bring Naomi Klein to mind...The comments about Taleb bring Naomi Klein to mind, specifically her book, "The Shock Doctrine". The financial crises that appear random,out of the blue as black swans are anything but, are white swans that requied intention.<BR/>I have a more sinister view of what is called incompetence.scandiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07924260428840006237noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-81020394451482681092008-06-01T22:22:00.000-04:002008-06-01T22:22:00.000-04:00See also the Bloomberg articlehttp://www.fooledbyr...See also the Bloomberg article<BR/>http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/bloombergProfile.pdf<BR/>which Taleb recommends. Perhaps, Emperica which he ran gives a clue to his attitude:<BR/>"The goal was to protect investors against market crashes. Knowing how much they would pay for options, the two guaranteed investors they wouldn't lose more than 13 percent a year. <BR/><BR/>``Our aim was not to makegaddeswaruphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16509075029154476375noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-82339116056902712972008-06-01T20:32:00.000-04:002008-06-01T20:32:00.000-04:00The problem I have with Taleb is that every time s...The problem I have with Taleb is that every time someone mentions his "black swan" it immediately reminds me of Dostoevsky and his white crow.<BR/><BR/>To me this makes the whole line of thought suspect of plagiarism.VLADhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07303463697333210934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-15871877824424226262008-06-01T20:24:00.000-04:002008-06-01T20:24:00.000-04:00Taleb's whole philosophy sounds like a variant of ...Taleb's whole philosophy sounds like a variant of "shit happens."<BR/><BR/>So why is he so famous? Because Americans have forgotten the obvious?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-90247475062047869692008-06-01T20:22:00.000-04:002008-06-01T20:22:00.000-04:00you know, this taleb guy sounds like a real jerk t...you know, this taleb guy sounds like a real jerk to me.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-25094312570999254102008-06-01T20:14:00.000-04:002008-06-01T20:14:00.000-04:00Same thought exactly. Share similar tastes with T...Same thought exactly. Share similar tastes with Taleb (I mean, come on, he loves Cavafy) but I would love him better and respect him more if he weren't so much in the public eye. Clamoring for attention should be beneath him.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com