tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post897795070597768299..comments2024-02-28T22:03:57.237-05:00Comments on The Automatic Earth: Debt Rattle, December 15 2008: A Loaded Freight TrainIlargihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09698428009501267664noreply@blogger.comBlogger66125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-65399282411653011312008-12-16T20:25:00.000-05:002008-12-16T20:25:00.000-05:00Stoneleigh,I've read Wild Swans. It's an incredib...Stoneleigh,<BR/><BR/>I've read Wild Swans. It's an incredible book. I second your recommendation.<BR/><BR/>Also the Bonesetter's Daughter by Amy Tan is an interesting read.<BR/><BR/>I've been concerned with China for a few years. The surplus of unattached males and recent rhetoric from fringe groups is scary.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-46029567264335670612008-12-16T13:30:00.000-05:002008-12-16T13:30:00.000-05:00Hi Wild Gypsy!It's like a breath of fresh air!hehe...Hi Wild Gypsy!<BR/><I>It's like a breath of fresh air!</I><BR/>heheheh <BR/>It's nice to be alive.<BR/>jalAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-57565282998194318702008-12-16T12:10:00.000-05:002008-12-16T12:10:00.000-05:00jal @ 11:07One very positive thing that has come f...jal @ 11:07<BR/><BR/>One very positive thing that has come from our economic woes is people beginning to re-engage in public conversation about issues again. For a long time, discussion of politics and the economy were verboten while hyper-attention was paid to celebrities and television fluff. Now, in places where the lines used to be silent: food banks, convenience stores, restaurants and Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-89876475232705652342008-12-16T11:20:00.000-05:002008-12-16T11:20:00.000-05:00Here is some confirmation of China's exports relat...Here is some confirmation of China's exports relative to its true GDP. It's 17%, according to the CIA Factbook <BR/>(http://tinyurl.com/3aeane). You would have to measure China's GDP in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms, i.e. in terms of what the money will buy inside China.<BR/><BR/>In PPP terms, China has the second largest economy in the world, not the fourth.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-48738684059302249462008-12-16T11:09:00.000-05:002008-12-16T11:09:00.000-05:00Well, well. I speculated whether Michael Pettis, ...Well, well. I speculated whether Michael Pettis, who used to be a high executive at Bear Sterns, might have had some influence in CITIC's wasted $1 billion investment in that bank. It seems likely that he might have, as shown by what he wrote a week before the investment:<BR/><BR/>"Nonetheless from a strategic point of view CITIC would gain a huge amount of international credibility and would Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-10897775020887282772008-12-16T11:07:00.000-05:002008-12-16T11:07:00.000-05:00The truth lies between the facts and the opinions....<I> The truth lies between the facts and the opinions.</I><BR/>------ <BR/>http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/most-people-are-idiots--even-the-ones-who-agree-with-me-20081216-6zrq.html?page=-1 <BR/>Catherine Deveny, December 17, 2008<BR/> <BR/>WHY are people so threatened by opinions? I'm not talking about statistics. We all know 97% of statistics (such as this one!) are fabricated on the spot.<BR/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-74200091132941419532008-12-16T10:56:00.000-05:002008-12-16T10:56:00.000-05:00The previous posting (re: China's exports) was min...The previous posting (re: China's exports) was mine.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-64309487205173251852008-12-16T10:55:00.000-05:002008-12-16T10:55:00.000-05:00rumor wrote: "A check at both wikipedia and the Ec...rumor wrote: "A check at both wikipedia and the Economist strongly suggest that China's current exports are about 40% GDP, not 20% or less."<BR/><BR/>As I have written previously, you get the 40% of GDP figure if you measure China's exports in U.S. dollars. However, everybody knows that China's currency is heavily undervalued by a factor of two or three, so their economy is larger than the U.S. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-3586702482139658912008-12-16T07:39:00.000-05:002008-12-16T07:39:00.000-05:00Good work Ilargi and crew.This is one of the most ...Good work Ilargi and crew.<BR/>This is one of the most reasonable blogs on the net.<BR/><BR/>(waves hand)<BR/>You dont want to sell me death swaps,<BR/>you want to go home and rethink your lifeboat.Gravityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09126443076478406015noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-9585185524662297862008-12-16T05:52:00.000-05:002008-12-16T05:52:00.000-05:00Ilargi said "This may mean for creditors, includin...Ilargi said "This may mean for creditors, including banks, that they get sidelined at the last minute. "<BR/><BR/>I think Frank's point is correct. This is similar to DIP (Debtor In Possession) financing in a reorganization bankruptcy which takes precedence over existing creditors. It has to be that way or no one would lend because they suffer an immediate loss. The difference here is simply Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-17102379745940570392008-12-16T04:53:00.000-05:002008-12-16T04:53:00.000-05:00The Age has a good article and quite bold, China F...The Age has a good article and quite bold, China Flirts with recession.<BR/><BR/>http://business.theage.com.au/business/chinese-flirt-with-recession-20081215-6z2p.html<BR/><BR/>CHINA'S industrial output has slumped to a new low, as leading economists say its previously irrepressible economy is probably shrinking this quarter and will contract again in the first quarter of next year.<BR/><BR/>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-35989992928833396182008-12-16T04:43:00.000-05:002008-12-16T04:43:00.000-05:00Fill your hearts content with China Facts fellow b...Fill your hearts content with China Facts fellow bloggers.<BR/><BR/>http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTCHINA/Resources/Quarterly_December_2008.pdf<BR/><BR/>The world banks quarterly report will make your hearts merry! :DAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-6885222349274781442008-12-16T04:22:00.000-05:002008-12-16T04:22:00.000-05:00There were words about Edmonton in today's comment...There were words about Edmonton in today's comments. I recently wrote a tidbit about them and their trash.<BR/><BR/>http://tinyurl.com/5tgjn3.https://www.blogger.com/profile/03915219261001181341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-65955491663428271652008-12-16T03:28:00.000-05:002008-12-16T03:28:00.000-05:00The Straits Times says that 30% of China's exports...The Straits Times says that 30% of China's exports go to Europe and Japan. <BR/><BR/>Economies in both of those areas are also hurting so demand would also be off, like it is from the USA.<BR/><BR/>While I can't put a number on it, the global demand of China's exports is definitely less now than it was a few months ago.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10318309864441672787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-68797216690969603162008-12-16T03:01:00.000-05:002008-12-16T03:01:00.000-05:00A check at both wikipedia and the Economist strong...A check at both wikipedia and the Economist strongly suggest that China's current exports are about 40% GDP, not 20% or less. Exp<BR/><BR/>The USA apparently accounts for 20% of those exports, the EU another 18%.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15614205920972531674noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-19579051667248262232008-12-16T02:55:00.000-05:002008-12-16T02:55:00.000-05:00Yesterday I was looking for a weather report on TV...Yesterday I was looking for a weather report on TV and chanced on a scientific explanation for the destruction of Sodom and Gemorrah (this is not going to be a religious rant). It showed a dramatization of Sodom's citizens watching this amazing spectacle in the sky. Oohing and aahing, all in rapture, (no, not that kind of rapture) only seconds before the huge flaming balls hit their city did theyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-28614564232641635852008-12-16T01:15:00.000-05:002008-12-16T01:15:00.000-05:00Exports are a minor part of China's GDP (13% to 20...<I>Exports are a minor part of China's GDP (13% to 20%), not the overwhelmingly important part that so many in the West have been brainwashed into believing.</I><BR/>Does anyone know what proportion of China's GDP is made up of exports to the USA and western Europe?porsenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04362269873149438270noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-21863830779823302852008-12-16T00:21:00.000-05:002008-12-16T00:21:00.000-05:00Her is an update on China From The Economist print...Her is an update on China From The Economist print edition.<BR/><BR/>http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12758848 <BR/>China's reforms <BR/>The second Long March<BR/>Dec 11th 2008<BR/><BR/>China has been transformed by the changes ushered in by Deng Xiaoping 30 years ago. But the biggest step has yet to be dared<BR/>----- <BR/>jalAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-52400245513882007342008-12-16T00:14:00.000-05:002008-12-16T00:14:00.000-05:00perhaps one reason is that Arab businessmen are fl...<I>perhaps one reason is that Arab businessmen are flocking to Australia looking to spend up big on things like rural property. Saudi individuals want to spend billions on farmland here in W.A. and export the crops back to the Arabian Peninsula.</I><BR/><BR/>The Arabs might not have discovered, yet, that the Congo basin, Sudan, Ethiopia, Mozambique and Tanzania as the place to invest, laying Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-69698246889919673002008-12-15T23:59:00.000-05:002008-12-15T23:59:00.000-05:00Hello Ilargi and Stoneleigh, hello all!I have been...Hello Ilargi and Stoneleigh, hello all!<BR/><BR/>I have been a regular visitor here since the beginning (moving with I&S from TOD), but have only now brought myself to write a comment. Firstly, many thanks to Ilargi, Stoneleigh and the others who help keep this site going. I will make a donation in the new year to encourage the site's continuation.<BR/><BR/>I have currently got my nose intrichterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03564719312574931123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-38155982731816987072008-12-15T22:56:00.000-05:002008-12-15T22:56:00.000-05:00Ilargi wrote: "Only weeks ago we posted stuff here...Ilargi wrote: "Only weeks ago we posted stuff here that talked of slowing down to a 5% growth rate as being untenable for China. It's already at 5.4% now, and falling fast going into 2009, with predictions for 0%, and even claims that the country is already there."<BR/><BR/>Soon enough we'll see how large the drop was in reality, as opposed to what you think it is.<BR/><BR/>As for the Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-19258982538392722202008-12-15T22:45:00.000-05:002008-12-15T22:45:00.000-05:00The above post (re: Pettis and CITIC) was mine.The above post (re: Pettis and CITIC) was mine.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-3023903687267084402008-12-15T22:44:00.000-05:002008-12-15T22:44:00.000-05:00Hmm... I wonder if Pettis had any influence on CIT...Hmm... I wonder if Pettis had any influence on CITIC's $1 billion investment in Bear Sterns, which turned out to be a total waste. If he had, his credibility in China must be dropping fast.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-71426363965252941532008-12-15T22:39:00.000-05:002008-12-15T22:39:00.000-05:00Damn, I accidentally chopped off a bit of my concl...Damn, I accidentally chopped off a bit of my conclusion. Phone calls can be so distracting...<BR/><BR/>Please replace everything after the sentence "Where is the rest of the economy?":<BR/><BR/>It should be obvious that a 5% drop in US consumption is not going to affect China by even 5%, let alone 17%. I have no idea how a "professor of finance" can be so plainly wrong.<BR/><BR/>Pettis's articleAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4921988708619968880.post-35368603856016540882008-12-15T22:16:00.000-05:002008-12-15T22:16:00.000-05:00The solutions that China could employ to fix its f...The solutions that China could employ to fix its financial crisis are more diverse than what can be done in the west. They do not want to see everything go to zero.<BR/>It must be remembered that China is governed differently … <BR/> They have a history of acting preemptively, quickly and decisively.<BR/><BR/>The new rich could easily find that they have “displeased” the ruler by their financial Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com