Thursday, October 27, 2011

October 27 2011: How I prepared my family for peak oil

Unknown The Comforts of Home 1861
"District of Columbia. Tent life of the 31st (later, 82nd) Pennsylvania Infantry at Queen's Farm, vicinity of Fort Slocum" (find the puppy)

Ilargi: TAE co-founder and senior editor Stoneleigh (Nicole Foss) did another Jim Puplava interview on Financial Sense this week. Puplava had seen a video posted by Aaron Wissner entitled How I prepared my family for peak oil.

Actually, it's called How I prepared my home for peak oil and economic uncertainty, and that is a better name, since peak oil is not the biggest threat to our lives these days, the credit crunch is. But hey, nothing beats a catchy title.

The energy guys should really revise their models to include the financial crisis, but so far that's not happening. It would force them away from their field of expertise, and that's never easy to accept and always easy to ignore. Energy consumption is set to fall a lot, certainly in the western world, simply because it will become much less affordable. Peak oil, then, will become an afterthought receding into the hinterland; not an urgent concern.

Below, you can find Jim Puplava's interview on preparation (it doesn’t matter all that much for what one prepares, it’s far more interesting to see which practical steps to take), as well as the Aaron Wissner video and an article on that. As soon as a transcript of the Puplava interview is available, we will add that. Also, Nicole will appear at Aaron Wissner's Local Futures Conference at Shanty Creek Resorts, Bellaire, Michigan, November 9-12, along with the likes of Steve Keen.

In other news, we’ll let the Euro "solution" boil and simmer for a few days, in order to let the details sink in. Prediction: we’ll find a fine mess.

Jim Puplava interviews Nicole Foss:

How I prepared my family for peak oil

Preparing for economic uncertainty

Nicole Foss of the Automatic Earth joins Jim this week from Europe to discuss her personal efforts to prepare her family for Peak Oil and the general economic uncertainty that she believes is headed our way. Nicole believes "there is a hell of a lot we can do, but we can’t have business as usual."

Please choose your preferred audio format:

RealPlayer     WinAmp       Windows Media       MP3

How I prepared my family for peak oil
by Aaron Wissner -

Local Future published a full-length, uncut, video presentation by Nicole M. Foss on her personal efforts to prepare her family for economic uncertainty and peak oil.

Foss is senior editor of The Automatic Earth (TAE), where she writes as Stoneleigh. TAE integrates a study of the global economy with a peak oil perspective. Previously, Foss served as the editor of The Oil Drum - Canada. Foss ran the Agri-Energy Producers' Association of Ontario, where she focused on farm-based biogas projects and grid connections for renewable energy. While living in the UK, Foss was a Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, where she specialized in nuclear safety in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, and conducted research into electricity policy at the EU level.

Her academic qualifications include a BSc in biology from Carleton University in Canada (where she focused primarily on neuroscience and psychology), a post-graduate diploma in air and water pollution control, an LLM in international law in development from the University of Warwick in the UK. She was granted the University Medal for the top science graduate in 1988 and the law school prize for the top law school graduate in 1997.

In 2009, Foss created a presentation titled A Century of Challenges, which lays out in 80 minutes the overall picture for peak oil and decline, and how the economy is likely to respond. Since then, she has toured extensively throughout North America and Europe, delivering talks to audiences ranging from small transition towns groups to large international conferences.

Her conference speaking events have included the Transition Towns conference in the UK, the FEASTA (Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability) conference in Ireland, the ASPO-USA (Association for the Study of Peak Oil) conference in Washington, DC. and the Local Future leadership conference in Michigan.

Foss has been interviewed by various radio and TV stations, as well publications including Financial Sense, Max Keiser, CollapseNet and Transition Voice. She was thanked by Richard Heinberg’s for her insights into the world of finance, which Heinberg incorporated into his book The End of Growth.

In November, Foss speaks at the ASPO-USA conference and the Local Future conference. At ASPO, she speaks for about 30-minutes as part of a three person panel including Dmitry Orlov and Gail (the Actuary) Tverberg. For the Local Future conference, Foss delivers her full, updated A Century of Challenges presentation as part of a full day of activities to study the future of the economy, along with Dr. Steve Keen of Australia, author of Debunking Economics.

In the video presentation released by Local Future, Foss details the preparations she and her family undertook in order to get ready for tough times ahead.

Foss had been living in England with her family in the 1990s, but after studying the economic indicators, decided to sell everything and relocate to a rural farm in Ontario, approximately eleven years ago. At the time, there was a large property bubble in England, which allowed her to sell a single townhouse, and turn around and purchase a 40-acre farm, with cash to spare.

Foss and her husband set a goal to reduce the energy use of the farmhouse by ninety percent. First, they discontinued using the vertical open loop geothermal system. They installed a outdoor wood burning furnace, which greatly reduced the electricity demand. They cut the wood themselves. For the summer, they installed solar hot water panels for domestic hot water.

For electricity, they installed a renewable energy system, with three kilo-watts of solar panels, and six deep cycle marine batteries. The various essentials of the home are hooked up to this system, including the well pump, sump pump, refrigerator, freezer, an invisible fence, a few lights, a few fans, etc. For a secondary set of electric loads, they have a gasoline generator, and a generator that can be installed on their diesel tractor. The battery bank can be charged from the solar panels, the generator, or the utility lines.

Several decisions had to be made when installing the renewable energy (RE) system. Foss decided not to connect the solar panels in a grid-tie situation to take advantage of Ontario’s feed-in tariff program. She believes that long term feed-in tariff contracts will not be honored in the longer term. Foss states that for her, these are not energy generating systems, but rather money generating systems. Rather than installing a tracking panel arrangement, which Foss considers a weak point in an RE system due to the moving parts. Instead, she installed more panels, which can be adjusted for their angle in winter and summer. For a similar reason, due to the moving parts maintenance requirements, they decided against a wind generator.

One consideration for Foss was that the solar panels generate much less energy in the winter months, which she sees as a vulnerability. This is one of the reasons that they did not disconnect from the electric utility, but rather switched as much of the electric load as possible to the renewable energy system. Items which are neither on the RE system or the generator circuit include an electric range, and assorted appliances.

Foss looks at home preparedness as being a matter of building in redundancy, which allows for function regardless of the available energy inputs.

For cooking, Foss has built redundancy. In addition to the electric range, she has a toaster oven, but notes that devices that generate heat from electricity are typically inefficient. Instead, she states that she could cook using a microwave oven, a wood fired range, a barbecue range with propane, a Coleman stove with butane, a solar oven or use a tripod and dutch oven over a fire pit.

Clean water is an essential for living. She suggests a very effective passive water filter such as used by aid agencies in the third world. Foss owns a Big Berkey filter for this purpose. She normally uses white ceramic filter to improve her well water quality. These systems need filters, but the filters last for a long time. Her farm has the original 30 foot deep dug well, with a pump handle. If she used this water she would use activated charcoal filter.

Transport options are useful. Foss lives three kilometers from the nearest village. The family has bicycles, and it is possible to walk that distance. She notes that, if necessary, she could walk twenty kilometers to Ottawa. She sees this as an area of vulnerability, and suggests that living in the city benefits from centralized services and ease of walking places. Rural areas would need to be much more self-sufficient. Her farm has seven barns, which could be converted into additional living space, with the possibility of a future intentional community. She shares the least hope for new suburbia.

Foss is a hobby farmer. She does hay and has sheep, alpaca, chickens and a dog sled team. She is a musher as a hobby, which she sees as a transport option for winter. She uses most of the sheep and alpaca for fiber. Her family eats the male sheep and eggs from the chickens. Foss grows various vegetables including corn, beans and squash in a three-sisters pattern; as well as tomatoes and peppers. She also has nut trees and fruit trees. They use a heated greenhouse to extend the growing season. She sees food storage through the non-producing months to be a key aspect of effective preparedness. Foss believes that living on a vegan diet becomes more difficult in areas with shorter growing seasons, and thus families will need to address such dietary considerations.

Foss and her husband have three teenage children. She notes that her children, as a captive audience, “have heard it all, they really have”. The children have been encouraged to study practical skills, to stay out of debt, and to only go to an affordable college if they earn a scholarship. Foss warns against any teenager going into debt for college, since students do not have jobs nor the ability to sell assets to pay off debts. This creates a vulnerability to organizations that may offer to pay off debts in exchange for service.

Foss’s eldest is studying massage therapy, and plans to move on to nursing. Foss would have encouraged against going to medical school since it is too expensive. She also notes that advanced skills learned will be unaffordable to most people in the future, thus finding a “happy medium” is important when working towards advanced study.

Foss’s middle child is an aspiring opera singer, which is a vocal skill which takes many years to develop. Foss sees this as opening a range of entertainment possibilities, and notes that “really entertaining people very rarely starve to death”. Foss points out that practical skills that are typically taught in college can also be apprenticed, and this is a very feasible possibility for completing various training in the future.

Setting expectations for children early is important. This was one reason that Foss and her husband chose a farm setting, where practical skills could be seen and used on an everyday basis. Her children did not have television or computer games, and fun was focused around low-energy items such as board games, card games, and walking the dogs. Foss’s youngest, who is now in grade 10, has stated that she is interested in carpentry.

“People can be happy with drastically less”, Foss notes, citing a BBC program called All Our Children to show how children in even the poorest situations could still be happy.

“It’s amazing what you can be happy with,” Foss says. “It’s about expectations. It’s not what we have; it’s what we have relative to what we expected to have or hoped to have. If we can make our expectations realistic, then we can meet those expectations.”

Foss concludes with, “There is a hell of a lot we can do. We can’t have business as usual. We have to get over it. It is gone. It is done. We cant’ have that. We have to be happy with what we can have; that is really what it means to be human, and that is incredibly important.”

Ashvin Pandurangi:

TAE Community:

The first TAE Community’s “Diamonds in the Rough” Poll was a great success, and we thank everyone who contributed their votes! The winning Diamond was the revival of FDR’s Department of Subsistence Homesteads, and it will be uncovered with more depth and detail in the near future. Now it’s time for the second poll with four brand new ideas, and hundreds of brand new votes! Below are brief explanations of these ideas, as they have been described by those who submitted them. You can vote in the right-hand column, near the top of the page.

1. State-Owned Grain and Flour Mills – The North Dakota Mills are state-owned and supply cereal grains and flour directly to market, bypassing the Minneapolis Commodity Grain Exchange. Their basic bread flour is not bromated or bleached, making it a healthier product. This model could be adopted by many other states.

2. The American Homestead Act of 2012 – A proposal which serves to revive the principle of Homesteading that was the foundation of the settlement of the American West.  All homes remaining unsold six months after foreclosure automatically enter the pool of homes available for Homesteading with no compensation for previous lien holder, lenders can voluntarily place units in the pool and homes foreclosed with fraudulent title transfers would in the pool as well.

3. Local Complimentary Currency Model – First, the county/town/what-have-you saves official money into the central bank of the home country (in the beginning this could be 1% of the yearly budget). Next step is to print/issue debt-backed notes for the same amount (i.e. 100% reserve ratio). County/town spends the notes as part of the county/town salaries (or buys stuff/services directly from companies). People and companies have options to pay taxes with notes for face value, use them in transactions, or cash them in for 90/95% of FV (depending on their category).

4. Revitalizing Rural Economies via Small-Scale Farming - The town of Hardwick Vermont is a great example of a place where a new kind of farming has created the spark that's brought a decaying town back from the brink. High-Mowing Seeds was created by the then 19 year old Tom Stearns, and very soon after starting his business he was employing a number of people with all the benefits that come to a community from having steady, well-paying local employment.  High-Mowing wasn't the only small farming venture and found itself part of a community of like-minded business owners.

Europe's grand gamble risks failure without ECB
by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard - Telegraph

Europe's "Grand Plan" to save monetary union is, in broad terms, a settled matter, even if the usual theatrics were still dragging on into the small hours of the Belgian night.

Whether it proves any more successful than past efforts over the past two years is far from clear. The package is a huge gamble. If it goes wrong, it may accelerate contagion to core Europe, hastening the denouement so feared by EU leaders.

The EU's €440bn bail-out fund (EFSF) will be leveraged "several fold" – perhaps to €1 trillion – chiefly by insuring the first 20pc loss of new bonds by Italy, Spain and other debtors. This creates a two-tier market, instantly downgrading old debt to lower status.

The plan will "probably" be buttressed by an off-books fund that uses EFSF seed money to rope in the International Monetary Fund, China, Japan and Russia.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said he would call his Chinese counter-part Hu Jintao on Thursday to garner support. Beijing will almost certainly impose terms, renewing its demand for open-door access for Chinese state firms investing in EU industry and for an end to Europe's veto on "full market status" for China under global trade laws.

First loss is a form of structured credit all too like US sub-prime debt. It concentrates risk. Those holding these tranches of debt take the hit, in this case creditor states.

The question is whether this will damage the standing of core EMU states, pushing the most vulnerable over the edge. France is already battling to keep its AAA rating. Standard & Poor's has warned that France and a string of others risk a downgrade of up to two notches if Euroland tips back into recession, as many fear. "The larger the EFSF, the faster the dominos fall," said Daniel Gross from the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS).

The risk is that the leverage scheme will accelerate contagion to the core. Jacques Cailloux, from RBS, said the plan is "very dangerous" unless the European Central Bank (ECB) is fully mobilised to back-stop the system.

Chancellor Angela Merkel again ruled out any such a role for the ECB in her Bundestag speech on Wednesday. She offered no hint of "fiscal union" beyond stricter policing of national budgets. There will be no move towards debt pooling, an EU treasury or fiscal transfers. "Breaches of stability culture must be punished more severely," she said.

Once again she warned that if the euro fails, Europe fails. "No one should think that a further half-century of peace and prosperity is assured. It isn't. We have a historic duty to defend and protect the unification of Europe that our forebears achieved after centuries of hatred and bloodshed."

She was brought back to earth by a volley of accusations that she had misled the Bundestag about the true implications of the EFSF. "You came here to say there would be no leverage, not three years ago, not three months ago, but three weeks ago. You denied everything," said Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the Social Democrat leader. Green leader Jürgen Trittin asked: "You said there would be no leverage. Why are you shying away from telling the people the truth?"

Mrs Merkel won the vote handily but Bundestag ferment over recent weeks and revolt in parts of her coalition suggests Germany is nearing bail-out exhaustion.

The summit has sketched bigger haircut for banks and private holders of Greece's €346bn debt, though it may not prove to be Mrs Merkel's 60pc target. The banking lobby has proposed a last-minute compromise to head off a hard default. So long as the deal is "voluntary", it does not trigger credit default swaps and is easier to control.

Such debt relief may not be enough to pull Greece out of its downward spiral. A leaked report by "troika" inspectors suggested such a plan would leave public debt at 130pc of GDP in 2020. Greece faces a politically poisonous decade of slump without a viable outcome at the end.

Investors will expect fresh haircuts elsewhere once the precedent is set, despite an EU pledge this will not happen. They have already burned their fingers once believing such a pledge on Greece. The risk is that investors shun all Club Med debt, knowing that the underlying North-South gap behind the crisis has not be solved by the summit package and debt-deflation policies are pushing Portugal, Italy and Spain into deeper trouble.

Europe's banks will be recapitalised for €100bn, first by private funds, then state funds, and only from the EFSF as a last resort. This falls well short of the €200bn figure first mooted by the IMF. Banks will have until next June to meet a core Tier 1 capital ratio of 9pc.

The draft said banks must "enhance capital" and "avoid a credit crunch" at the same time, a contradiction in terms. Lenders have already begun to shrink their balance sheets rather than dilute capital. The danger is a brutal contraction of lending, perhaps by €5 trillion, according to RBS. The view in the markets is that only the ECB has the credible lending power to contain the crisis, and on that score the summit did not advance one millimetre.


Jack said...

Thanks for passing on that info.
I think humans have had a hard time understanding nature.
As we move into a different era of lifestyle and survival we will have to become closer to nature.
We will see that nature is not as complicated as we make it seem
We will have to talk about these issues.

Ashvin said...

Today's theme - Continued delusion in the markets, continued reality and practicality here!

Second TAE Diamonds poll is up, top right.

Greenpa said...

In my attempts to explain to the MSM fantasy enthusiasts why this "deal" is not going anywhere, the following metaphor hit me; I like it.

"Nope. Fantasy is just not enough, anymore. Let's see if I can put this in terms the "econoastrologers" can actually understand.

"What they've just done is put more gasoline into the Automobile of Europe; which is stalled, engine dead, on the side of the road. Thing is; gasoline is not the problem. The problem: the engine has a cracked block; cracked wide open. It's broke- and dead; and all the gasoline in the world, will not fix it.

"Folks will hop back in the driver's seat; turn the key a few times- and the engine will not catch. Once again, they'll be out on the road trying to flag down help. But the engine block will remain cracked."


One of the great advantages of this metaphor is its wonderful vagueness - readers can fill in the blank on exactly what a cracked block on an economic engine means- and chances are, they'll all be correct- "peak everything" is the problem; but people cling desperately to their own bit of the elephant.

Tom said...

Thank you very much for the insight into your personal living decisions. Iti s good to know your thoughts are grounded in application.

souperman2 said...

To paraphrase an old joke...

How do you set yourself up like Stoneleigh to live a simple frugal life? Start out with lots of money and lots of free time.

I am a master prepper. I have more supplies, tools, equipment, DYI knowledge than anyone I know or have heard of.

And it wasn't until I got to this point that I was able to step back and realize that it is all worthless as the other 99.9% of the population around me have nothing.

So I started in on the community building bit, creating awareness, hoping to increase those numbers. I have been very successful and now the number is 99.8%.

The point is even if the awareness grows exponentially those who will be prepared will simply be washed over by a Tsunami wall of helpless, desperate, people.

The one and only thing that will adequately "prepare" humanity for what is about to come is for the people to take back the power from the corrupt government and initiate an equatable powerdown.

Failing that it will be War, martial law, and wartime socialism with rationing. Pretty much the same as above only with a lot mote pain and suffering.

I offer this as an alternative to wasting all of your time and money setting yourself up to be the only one on your block sitting pretty while all your neighbors, and your neighbors neighbors, and theirs and so on, are watching their children suffer and die.

We need to stand up and demand a fair and equatable powerdown or we will get/are getting the opposite.

Greenpa said...

souper2: yeah; good stuff. Your neighbors are critically important; and their neighbors.

Stoneleigh- about your singer-son; has he done any street singing? I recommend it highly. I haven't done any myself, but one of my sons did a good bit in college, as part of his serious a cappella group, they'd go into downtown NY and sing on the streets, cap out for donations. Great artist education.

I don't spend that much time in cities these days, but I remember dozens of street musicians I've contributed to, because of the delight they spread.

jal said...

The lawyers have found a way to by pass and change the rules and regulations.
The accountants have found a way to move the debts around. (pulled off their trickery.)
The EU is going begging to China not to end the game.
The financial system has been saved ... once again.
The players are ecstatic and driving the stock market higher.
Debt is the only thing growing.

Greenpa said...

hot diggety damn, Dow is over 12,000 and rising! yay!

Quick, let's jump into the market before it goes any higher! GDP doubled! Happy Days Are Here Again!


Ashvin said...

Occupy Oakland Seeks Strike After Scott Olsen Injury

"Activists taking part in the the Occupy Oakland protests have called for a general strike in the city next week.

The call to strike on 2 November emerged as protesters gathered late on Wednesday, one day after clashes with police left an Iraq veteran badly hurt.

On Tuesday evening police used tear gas and baton rounds to force protesters to leave their camp. Many have now called for the mayor of Oakland to resign.

Occupy Wall Street protests are now in their sixth week."

Ashvin said...

Credit not nearly as enthusiastic as equities.

In Rally Over Euro Deal, Relief Mixed With Wariness

"But even amid the surge in stock markets worldwide, there were reservations in some quarters. The response in the European debt markets, the epicenter of the crisis, was muted, with little relief reflected in the interest rates that Spain, France and Italy must pay on their bonds. There has been concern, in particular, that Italy’s huge accumulated debt might be the next focus of a bailout effort.

...And as always with the grandly presented European rescue plans, the devil with the latest one is in the details. Despite Thursday’s exuberance, many investors expressed caution as to how the plan would hold up in the coming days and weeks."

p01 said...

Vee hav managed doo kick zee ScheiseKan down zee Strase ein more time. Vee managed eine how do you zai? Ein "Heil Mery Passen", ya... Now vee pray very very hard, for zee ScheiseKan ist kaput.
--Ze Politiks.

Hombre said...

Souperman2 - "...take back the power from the corrupt government and initiate an equatable powerdown."

I have similar feelings about getting overly prepared while those around me remain in La La land, and what that would mean to me and mine when the "hammer falls." Could we feed ourselves and watch others starve? No! Besides, the desperate masses will take what they need in any case!

But as to your quote above... although the government(s) is/are a part of the problem, it is really our corrupt, international evolved economic system and leadership that is now basically in control--and we do not elect them to office.
Complexity and complication are trumping any possible solution, making this a more unique and potentially devastating contraction than others historically. That and the fact that the numbers are impossibly huge--both in people and in resources. This is a PREDICAMENT of monumental proportions.
Personally I see it dragging out for a few more years as the "POWERS T. B." keep plugging holes and propping up economic and political structures. But each year it will get worse--that i--more and more humans will be left down and out, until at some point their sheer numbers will build up with emotional pressure and their fury will explode in a violent way.

Hombre said...

po1 - es ist reine Propaganda

Lynford1933 said...

Here in the high desert north of Reno NV, the one critical commodity is water. There are many here with wells and we have a river running through the Truckee River Valley. OTOH there are about three hundred thousand people in an area that can naturally support about three thousand. We are more than a hundred to one over populated. Most every bit of food and supplies come here by truck over Highway 80 Interstate. Donner summit with its gruesome history is but a few miles west of here.

I see collapse as a range of time determined possibilities. A slow collapse (a few years) will allow most people due to lack of commodities and high prices to migrate from this area to California or back east where there is much better climate and surviving is easier. A fast collapse (a few weeks) will leave us the ‘Souperman2‘ tsunami of hungry people scenario. Either possibility is bad but the slower the better. An unimaginable EMP from high altitude nuclear or coronal mass ejection like a Carrington Event (cc 1859) will give us three days to chaos and three weeks to massive die off.

Our preparations here are pretty well set for moderate time collapse; off grid occupation, hand pumpable water, food, shelter and safety. For shorter time frames we hope to keep light on our feet and see where we can help out. We have not tried to be a survival fortress because IMHO that is useless here. I have pretty much given up on trying to convince people to prepare for any sort of calamity. I pretty much gave up on representative government in the early sixties when my representative and most of the others voted to go to war in Vietnam. Ike’s warning has gone nowhere and continues to be ignored at every level.

The fates have been good to my wife and me. Even at our age, we have good health but of course this all can change in a heartbeat or lack thereof.

Ashvin said...

S&P not buying it. Downgrades Cyprus to BBB from BBB+, credit watch negative, cites Greek "default" as factor.

S&P Cuts Cyprus Long-Term Credit Rating

"The ratings agency estimates Cypriot banks' exposure to total Greek debt to be around 165 percent of national output, and the cost of injecting new capital into them could hit 10 percent of gross domestic product.

As a result, a Greek default "could reverberate through Cyrpus' economy," it said, putting pressure on government finances and raise the cost of borrowing in the private sector, reducing investment and overall demand.

Resulting weaker growth would "worsen the Cypriot government's debt dynamics and reduce the willingness of its political leaders to press forward with fiscal and labor market reforms," S&P said."

Greenpa said...

Paul- dein Schwein-Deutsch ist aber lächerlich! kanßt du nicht den "ß" finden? :-) (option-S auf deine Äpfel-maschienengewehranteilungsbeweisensdinge.)

p01 said...

Apple machinegun... what?! Is that a word?

Greenpa said...

Paul: : Is that a word?"

I truly hope not! :-)

Glennda said...

Glennda said...

Thanks S & I for such a clear headed blog site and commenters

As a "city girl", I don't see me doing more than raising my chickens (coming in a few months when the chicks mature)and growing a few struggling veggies in the fog, and having first aid station set-up and food and tent supplies for earthquake prep.

Part of my preparing for the coming hard times, is connecting with my local community, Oakland & Berkeley.

I will be closing my retail shop for the Nov 2 General Strike in Oakland. Last big General Strike in Oakland was 65 years ago, 1946. The '46 spontaneous strike came about as a result of strike breaking scabs being imported to break a strike by a mostly women retail workers group. Local unions did not support them, in fact the Teamsters told everyone to go back to work.

On the Occupy Oakland scene:

After work on Wed at about 9pm I drove to downtown Oakland to see if I could join the demonstration. It was too amorphous to figure out where to park and join in, so I went home. Once at home I saw the tear gas clips. I only saw a huge number of riot cops in gear. They had closed down the campers and their tents in Oscar Grant Plaza at 5 am that morning. By 9:30 pm when apparently they started uncontrollably lobbing teargas and light grenades. I had wondered at the half dozen of bicyclists with large masks on. All the actions of the Occupiers have seemed peaceful, but there are always the "bring-it-all-down" types, so the rock, bottles and paint seem likely. I've seen photos of 3 cops with blue paint on their helmets.

The injury of Scott Olson was likely a result of 500 officers in riot gear for over 16 hours. He is now listed as in fair condition, but I also saw on a twitter "rumor" that he has been put into a medical coma and life support. [Some of the twitter remarks last night seemed to be reminiscent of the troll type of remarks here and also just misleading info.]

The civil unrest is starting. The 'good' thing about this unrest, is that people are finally speaking out. The techniques of the Occupy groups general assemblies is that it it hugely participatory using a 90% consensus basis for decisions, like the General Strike decision. There is no "leader" because everyone is being empowered to step up. One Oakland spokesman reached by phone Tuesday morning told my friend that, "They'd tried to talk to the leaders, but couldn't get anywhere. My friend suggested better negotation skills. I suspect that they need a whole new tool kit of skills like talking directly at a General Assembly being held every day at 7 pm. [5 pm for strike discussions - I'll be able to attend at 5]

Another hugely successful technique being used is a bull horn for announcements that are repeated phrase by phrase by the crowd, so others farther back can hear the messages. This is the start of a learning curve for all these participants. The tear gas may likely be used again, so the site has links for how to make a tear gas mask out of clear plastic, or the use of goggles and vinegar soaked face bandannas. The details are from a occupiedpalestine blog.

The guardian blog is giving it all really good coverage.

That's all for now. Let me know if this kind of on-the-ground news is too much and I'll cease posting.

jal said...

China Lays Out Conditions Under Which It Will Bail Out Europe; Does Not Want To Be Seen As "Source Of Dumb Money"

Professor Li. “The last thing China wants is to throw away the country’s wealth and be seen as just a source of dumb money.” Alas, that is precisely how the entire world sees China. As for the final condition: "He added that Beijing might also ask European leaders to refrain from criticising China’s currency policy, a frequent source of tension with trade partners." And this is how you declare political check mate and shut up all voices that threaten to protest against mercantilist policies. And since it is only a matter of time before China will have to rescue the US, we hope Senate enjoys the time remaining in which it can debate whether or not China manipulates the CNY. That time is about to end.

Europe has absolutely no trump cards left. It is entirely at the mercy of China.

Greenpa said...

"That's all for now. Let me know if this kind of on-the-ground news is too much and I'll cease posting."

I certainly appreciate it.

Ashvin said...

Peak Water.

Water Use Rising Faster Than World Population

"Human beings have depended on access to water since the earliest days of civilization, but with 7 billion people on the planet as of October 31, exponentially expanding urbanization and development are driving demand like never before.

Water use has been growing at more than twice the rate of population increase in the last century, said Kirsty Jenkinson of the World Resources Institute, a Washington think tank.

Water use is predicted to increase by 50 percent between 2007 and 2025 in developing countries and 18 percent in developed ones, with much of the increased use in the poorest countries with more and more people moving from rural areas to cities, Jenkinson said in a telephone interview."

Greenpa said...

Something potentially interesting and fun: what's your guess/prediction for how long this weird mindless market euphoria lasts?

My own guess; Monday, Oct. 31. That should give enough time for a little reality to soak back into the market addicts' adrenalin sogged brains.

trojanhorse said...

Stoneleigh, as far as I have listened I am quite enjoying your talk am only at the point where you are stoking the outside wood burning furnace. I stopped as I got the amusements thinking that the better option, instead of that second furnace, was to move to the west coast. I had a eccentric neighbour here who not only did not use an outside wood furnace here but did without anything other than body heat and this was in an old style poorly insulated house. She did spend most of the day wrapped in quilts and I am not sure of the number of sweaters she wore, but it does ease my mind to think that, if worse came to worse,that here I could do the same... but for sure not until that worse does come to worse!

We have a super efficient wood stove but only used it for one year as after I did the computations I found out that despite it's efficiency our natural gas furnace did the job as cheaply and without all the extra work. I do have a three year supply of firewood but am looking at that as an 'emergency only' item.

Back now to your talk.

Ashvin said...

Flaws? Holes? Emerged? No way.

EU officials rush to hold bailout deal together as flaws emerge

"Without ECB protection, or at least limited activity by the central bank, investors are expected to be wary of Brussels's willingness to step in should a further crisis affect one of the 17 eurozone members.

It also emerged that the EU's calculations depend upon the Greek economy growing at 2% a year compared with the current contraction of 5.5%.

Equally, the mooted €1tn capacity of the enhanced EFSF, four times its remaining €250bn lending capacity, depends on relatively favourable market conditions – and the willingness of overseas investors such as sovereign wealth funds to commit more capital."

Eurozone bail-out: holes emerge in the 'grand solution’ to solve EU debt crisis

"Hours after an all-night summit of euro governments ended, flaws began to emerge in a package that was billed as a “grand and comprehensive” solution to the European debt crisis.

The concerns were led by Germany’s powerful central bank, which expressed fears that a plan to leverage a €440 billion eurozone rescue fund to amass a “fire power” of €1 trillion, or £880 billion, resembled the risky finance methods that triggered the crisis in 2008.

...Senior EU officials were left admitting that there was no agreement on how the deal would translate into a reduction in the Greek debt.

Greek opposition parties to the Left and Right united to condemn the eurozone deal amid mounting social conflict.

Antonis Samaras, the conservative opposition leader, said: “We are not closer to the solution but are faced with nine years of collapse and poverty.”

Dimitris Papadimoulis, a Left-wing MP, said new EU powers in the agreement to impose austerity measures on Greece had a conflict of interest. “Those who monitor us do not have our interests in mind,” he said. “Their priority is that we pay back our loans.”"

Nassim said...

Foss’s eldest is studying massage therapy, and plans to move on to nursing. Foss would have encouraged against going to medical school since it is too expensive.

Funny that. My boy, who is now 21, did physiotherapy for one year - last year - and found it too easy. He had messed up his end-of-school exams and was lucky to get accepted for physiotherapy. This year, he has given up physiotherapy and is studying hard and repeating the exams he did so badly in. His aim is to go to medical school. In Norway, student loans are run by the government (Lånkassen). I am aware of the debt-trap - his mother is still paying off her student loans. As for me, I am trying to find a way for him to make money so that he does not get into debt. Difficult.

Ruben said...

@p01 and Greenpa

Apples are renewable. Rubber bullets are not.

Jane said...

I was very interested to read what Nicole Foss decided to do. I had significantly less resources, and so I bought a house that is very old... that operated perfectly well before electricity was available and can do so now. I have an acre of land on which I grow enough food (with the help fo chickens and a goat) for myself. I have large trees that I am able to cut enough wood from the maintain the wood stove (about 1900 model) that I use for cooking.
I live in a small town and within walking distance of main street, hospital, doctor and most services.
I have been afraid of the end of cheap energy since living in California in the 1980's. I now live in rural Australia (I am Australian) and I am self sufficient in water & much of what I need.... I still use electricity, though as it becomes more expensive, I use much, much less. We live in interesting times.

The Anonymous said...

"p01 said...
Vee hav managed doo kick zee ScheiseKan down zee Strase ein more time."

It sure looks that way. Makes you question the prescience of those who promised with "100% certainty" TEOTWAWKI by 2013. But I digress.

For the contrarians and sentiment watchers out there, I am now seeing something that may be an important indicator to consider.

There is some strange goings on in certain places such as the commentariat that usually posts on Zero Hedge. From Late 2008 til now, they moved in lockstep with Tyler Durden and his unrelenting pessimism. Without question, they lapped up every conspiracy theory about why the world ends soon. They celebrated every bearish data point as "proof" of doom, and took a dump on every bullish one as "fraud" and "meaningless spin". Anyone questioning the constant doom and/ or, the judgment of their "dear leader" TD was attacked as being some "delusional optimist".

So long as the abject pessimism dominated boards such as those, I always felt safe being in the markets. Unlike some of the "doomers" here, those guys are at their core, greedy. They cannot stay away from the markets. While they spent most of the past few years shorting the market, I figured at some point, they would capitulate and go long, and thats when its time to start worrying. In my view, they are the "sheep" and "herd members" they often reviled.

That said, as of the greek and GDP news today, for the first time in years, they seem to be openly questioning their "dear leader". Some seem to be wondering if their emperor is in fact wearing any clothes, and the questioners are not being viciously attacked as "cockeyed optimists". Some seem to be questioning, "how long will I keep believing his proof of imminent TEOTWAWKI before I give up, go long and make some money???"

So what does that mean? I dont know, but I for one will watch carefully to see if this continues. If it does, it could be important sign as I always figured these guys would be the last ones in before the markets finally rolled over again.

For the moment, I remain sidelined. From late 08 til now, I felt confident there was such a a deep deep wellspring of pessimism that I could safely exit the market, largely intact -- and that is what I did roughly 3 months ago. That said, if these ZH guys are finally giving up the goat, I am uncertain as to how much longer this 2.5 year bull market has to go.

bluebird said...

Did everyone find the puppy in the picture :)

p01 said...

The Anonymous:
"Makes you question the prescience of those who promised with "100% certainty" TEOTWAWKI by 2013."

Neither then, nor now do I wish it to happen. But seeing how the recent events have developed, now I'm 110% sure of it.

Chas said...

Becoming energy independent requires a large capital investment. It would make sense if I knew that I was going to stay in my home for the long haul, but my company is in bankruptcy and if I had to find new employment, I would very likely have sell the house and leave the area.

So what's the strategy if you are in this situation?

seychelles said...

Anonymous said

"...I always figured these guys would be the last ones in before the markets finally rolled over again."

Yes. It's time for the sheeple to go out and have a carefree romp. The big bad wolf is gone.

YesMaybe said...


Neither then, nor now do I wish it to happen. But seeing how the recent events have developed, now I'm 110% sure of it.

Yep, Ilargi has certainly been proven wrong--about this:

'Ilargi: When we talk about "the markets", it's obvious that it is a poorly defined term, about as opaque as it gets. But whatever or whoever the markets may be, we may rest assured of this: the markets are not stupid.'

Ashvin said...

On Markets, EWT and Contrarian Signals.

Commodities and Deflation: A Response to Chris Martenson

Stoneleigh: "We maintain that this view is a completely inaccurate description of reality. Human actions, particularly the collective actions of herding behaviour, cannot be assumed away - they must be viewed as an inherent, and indeed vital, component of the system. Human beings chase momentum, often in the absence of any real information at all. They jump en masse on to passing bandwagons on the assumption that someone must know what they are doing.

We regard markets as fundamentally irrational and driven by emotionally-grounded perception, not by reality. They exhibit an eternal tug-of-war between collective greed and fear that expresses itself in fractal patterns. This lends itself to technical analysis (based on Elliottwaves), but not of the kind mentioned by Mr Martenson in his article. Elliottwaves identify and rank different unfolding possibilities for market action. There are always many possibilities as fractals unfold at all degrees of trend simultaneously.

The highest ranked option will be the one that satisfies the greatest number of guidelines while violating no rules, but it is not always the highest probability option that plays out. What Elliottwave analysis does is to indicate higher and lower probability time periods for trend changes, and boundaries for interpreting subsequent price action in the context of different possbilities, providing advance warning of potentially significant moves. In conjunction with contrarian sentiment indicators, it is a powerful, if inherently probabilistic, tool."

Ashvin said...

Pop goes the bubble.

Chinese Property Developers Slash RE Prices to Court Buyers

"A series of tightening policies aimed at reducing the country’s real estate bubble have put property developers and home buyers in a waiting game. While developers hope the market’s massive population with “rigid demand” will continue buying, many buyers have chosen to wait and see how effectively the government’s cooling measures affect real estate prices. In Shanghai, the city with China’s highest housing prices, commercial housing sales over the first three quarters this year have decreased sharply by 14.9 percent from a year earlier, and the average monthly sales record has also hit its lowest levels since 2005.

Plummeting sales have pushed many property developers towards compromise. Several major real estate companies – including Longfor Properties, Greenland Group, and China Overseas Land & Investment – have started to offer huge discounts ranging between 20 percent and 40 percent on some of their properties in Shanghai. The whole city’s average housing strike price over the last week has slid by 5 percent from a week earlier, according to statistics by the China Real Estate Information Corporation (CRIC)."

Ashvin said...

Italian 10Y hit record 6%+ yield. Expect many more distressed auctions to come.

Bank Debt-Guarantee Plan May Struggle to Thaw Funding Market

"European banks, which need to refinance more than $1 trillion of debt next year, may struggle to fund themselves until policy makers follow through on a pledge to guarantee their bond sales.

European Union leaders promised this week to "urgently" look at ways to guarantee bank debt in a bid to thaw funding markets frozen by the sovereign debt crisis. Lenders have found it hard to sell bonds for the past two years and have increasingly turned to the European Central Bank for unlimited short-term emergency financing."

[Greek opposition, German CC and BRICs have so far said "NO" on all counts]

snuffy said...

I am still of the opinion that O-man will most likely start a nice hot little war with say,Iran,just to shut down the OWS....who now have a martyr/hero in the Iraq vet who got hammered by a rubber bullet...last word I saw was the mayor has turned tail and decided the cops were bad again....

Its too strange..I get echos of the sixtys

Tin solders and Nixon coming,
Were finally on our own,
This summer I hear the drumming.
Four dead in Ohio....

Bee good,or
Bee careful


davefairtex said...

I have a question for the group. How many people here have tried to make money by going short (buying inverse ETFs, or buying puts counts too) based on your views of where things are ultimately headed?

Or is everyone pretty much focused on preparation, education, resilience, training, and the like?

Ashvin said...

On austerity: "Please sir", replied Oliver, "I want some [less]".

5.1 billion people lack social security: UN

"Two thirds of the world's population live without social security protection, according to a United Nations report released Thursday which prompted calls from key leaders for improved welfare.

About 5.1 billion people out of the 7.0 billion global population lack adequate social security or social protection and only about 15 percent of the world's jobless receive some form of unemployment benefit, said the report."

p01 said...

snuffy said...
Its too strange..I get echos of the sixtys

Oh, snuffy, this is different. I was not yet born in the 60s, but somehow feel the zeitgeist is much different now.
We spiral towards disaster.

el gallinazo said...

CHS does an exceptional job summarizing the euroclown "fix." Too bad Ken Lay is theoretically dead as he otherwise should be a faux Nobel winner for his work at Enron on SPV (special purpose vehicles). Perhaps Jeffrey Skilling.

trojanhorse said...

Credit-Default Swaps as Hedge Threatened by Greece Debt Plan

"Banks Threatened

That approach threatens to affect banks that use the swaps to hedge their holdings of government bonds, forcing them to look at other ways of laying off risk. The contracts pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements.

I wondered why Harper, that odius bag of parochial perfidy we have for a Prime minister, was looking so long in the face about this deal, till I thought about how all this could effect mortgage rates in Canada.

trojanhorse said...

Link to above article I posted.

el gallinazo said...

As an anti-Vietnam War activist in college in the second half of the 60's, what is about to go down is very different. While social conscience did activate a lot of young people, the primary impetus for resistance was the coercion of the central state to force male kids, usually working class, to become minimum wage hitmen. But TPTB had much less on the line back then. The War was very profitable to the connected and many in the State Dept. and military really did believe in the "domino theory." General Jack D. Ripper of the Dr. Strangelove film was not atypical as personified by Curtis LeMay. Additionally, they found the "hippy" activists unAmerican and felt they should be taught a lesson in proper obedience and macho coiffure. Tee shirts like "question authority," or for the heavy duty acid heads, "question reality" were deemed offensive.

However, despite the looming runaway inflation, the country as a whole was living at a time of unparalleled economic prosperity. Just the scraps brushed off the table allowed the counter culture to survive in modest comfort. Gasoline was about 30 cents a gallon and the USA I believe was still a net exporter.

But the bottom line was that the War was not critical to the well being of the Owner class. Despite the disorganized retreat (last minute helicopters off the embassy roof), the USA won the War. How else can one explain Nike factories paying serfs starvation wages there over the past two decades? But now the Owner class has **everything** on the line and they know it. Their only hope to maintain their power and privilege is to convert the "first world" into a hard fascist state(s?) with neofeudal overtones. This has been implemented since 9/11 and the Patriot Acts. The Owners saw their problem prior to the 2008 financial collapse and implemented a progressing (boiled frog) policy several years in advance. Expect a level of atrocities in the USA against resistance to the looting and debt slavery which will make the anti-war 60's look like a Sunday picnic. When Mad Max blurts "gulag capitalism," he doesn't know the half of it.

Regarding comments about the markets

The global equities markets are the most "stupid" of all the various markets. Not only are they more subject to herd stampedes, but now with their total computerization and high frequency algobot trading, a euphemism for what used to be illegal front running, they are more fixed than a casino wheel loaded with rare earth magnets. As the USA and Europe sink deeper into depression for the average debt serf, the equities indices are supported by the central state, partly as a false indication of prosperity. the famous quote of JM Keynes still applies, that the markets can stay irrational far longer than one can stay solvent. The closet thing we have at the moment to markets based on a minimum of rationality are the bond markets. If one wishes to watch markets, these are the ones to observe.

The most interesting outcome of this week's euroclown flatulence was the virtual destruction of CDS derivatives. Now that any illusion of hedging risk has been removed from sovereign (and perhaps financial) bonds, the yields will go up. The clowns may have just started rolling the great Karl D bond dislocation snowball down the mountain.

P.S. My access to the internet will be more limited for a while and I will be less able to post my babblings.

Ashvin said...

Berlusconi nervous break down?


"An astonishing outburst from Silvio Berlusconi, the embattled Italian prime minister, being reported on Bloomberg. Here's a taste of the flashes we are seeing:

• The euro 'hasn't convinced anyone'.
• The euro is a strange currency.
• Italy is the 'most solide' EU country after Germany
• Austerity measures won't work without growth
• Financial markets 'don't forgive' Italy for its large public debt"

Ashvin said...

On money managers and fickle investors. Bottom line: don't listen to Cramer.

Performance Anxiety - thanks Cramer

"Performance anxiety can, whether you're honest about it or not, cloud your decisions in this market. Do you cave to the relative performance derby in order to retain investors? It's a real issue if you've been on the wrong side of this market or any side for that matter. The volatility has made investors punch drunk. I'm talking about customers that say flat out: "If you don't get more invested, I'm pulling my account". How quickly they forget that 2 weeks ago they were of the opposite mindset."

The Anonymous said...

"p01 said...Neither then, nor now do I wish it to happen."

I understand. I never thought you wanted it to happen.

"p01 said...But seeing how the recent events have developed, now I'm 110% sure of it."

So in 2010 its "100% chance in 2013", and after the can gets kicked further down the road, its now "110% chance in 2013"?

Out of curiosity, what is the highest % available on your certainty scale? Is 110% it, a la spinal tap "our amps go to 11" :)

Ashvin said...

Cans vs. Snowballs.

Kicking the Snowball Down the Road

"Ilargi: The saying of course says "kicking the can down the road", and we see it used a lot when referring to the financial crisis and the reactions to that crisis from governments and central banks. It's a pretty good metaphor as metaphors go, but I don't think it's perfect; it doesn't paint the whole picture.

A can that gets kicked doesn't change much. The financial crisis does change, however; it gets bigger as we go along. A snowball fits that picture much better. Fits the present weather better too. And at a certain point that snowball will get so big, nobody's strong enough to kick it any further.

A good illustration is provided by a series of numbers regarding Ireland, and the eurozone in general. As Finnish commenter Lautturi said at The Automatic Earth yesterday:

'It seems to me PIGS-countries have morphed into BIGPIGS-countries.'

* Belgium
* Ireland
* Greece
* Portugal
* Italy
* Great Britain
* Spain

Update: the consensus in the comments section seems to be for BIGAPIGS [Austria added]."

French downgrade = BIGFAPIGS? Too bad no Turkey.

gogoog - said...

How long will it be? What is the time-frame before the nations, such as Italy or Spain descend into chaos like Greece?

Are there lessons for North Americans to learn from the behaviors of the Grecian government and people?

Glennda said...

@ TAE Daily
Good thing I wasn't drinking my morning coffee still. lol.

@ El G
Reminiscent of the 60's grass roots activism, yes. Even this light hearted picture of what they did with the barricades in Oakland shows that.

There are plenty of scraps left, but I expect lots of scurmishes over them.

Ok, I'm an incurable optimist. I don't think they "can" . I suspect many of the Owners have fancy bolt holes set up.

My vision is more like pockets of fascism with pockets of local under-class grassroots networks. All the transition networking is going to help build support. When the banks tumble, the underclass will already be experienced in eking by.

Even now Mayor Jean Quan has stepped way back and taken responsibility for the stupid police action. 500 riot cops? for 1000 demonstrators? I'm sure Governor Brown (ex Oakland mayor)has had a chat with her. The world has a big magnifying glass on the scene, certainly 2-3 helicopters circling the meetings last night made it hard to talk while they filmed from above. Still there were no police in evidence when I left at 7pm. Those of you here on TAE that read zerohenge may have noticed this.
Excellent analysis of what happened to Scot Olsen, but is it true?
Did Oakland Police Intentionally Shoot Marine Vet Scott Olsen In the Head? by George Washington

The Oakland General Strike is proceeding and will take place as agreed Nov 2. I'll likely be closing my shop and going to demonstrate with my 4 employees. We'll be a distribution place for posters and flyers. Again I was so impressed with the friendly atmosphere (without cops or peace officers) at the Plaza. Conscensus style decision and discussion worked fairly well and they were very aware of when "process" went awry. After agreeing on basic info we broke up into neighbor hood groups for distribution on flyers and talking with neighbors and elists and friends and affinity groups. I hope to have time to go back tonight at 5 pm.
[Correction - my previous post said I was downtown on Wed, it was on Tues. I missed the bad action by 10 - 20 minutes. Glad of that.]

Lynford1933 said...

Check what KD came up with reference to Occupy Oakland.

jal said...

Keeping the comment section closed is impairing discussions.

jal said...

Re.: preparedness

Build an emergency kit.
If the snow storm hitting the east coast is affecting you, then stop talking and start doing.

FEMA has no money. The fed. gov. has no money. States have no money.
Municipalities have no money.

If you still have an income, use some of it to prepare for emergencies.

Sorry, I don't have any beans to spare. Not even for a piece of gold.

Joanna said...

Re: Fancy bolt holes.

We lived in NE WA for a while, very rural & remote, conservative, etc. There were a fair amount of fancy bolt holes bought & stocked by people with out-of-town money, for the Y2K meltdown. Most of the locals knew where they were, if they were occupied or empty, and definitely planned to make use of their stores in a crisis. Much better to be low profile and integrated into your community.

We now live in rural farm country, midway between Seattle & Vancouver BC. We don't share political or religious views with most of our neighbors, but we all have self-reliance in common. That mindset has brought us together over any philisophical differences. We all know who is armed, who has what tools to borrow, what numbers to call in the middle of the night. We even have keys to each others houses in some cases. It's reassuring to know if there is a storm, power outage, earthquake or man-made crisis, we can count on our community to help us all out, instead of being a drag on my household's preps.

But we're lucky, and we know it....

Ashvin said...

@gogoog (timing specific events.)

The Perturbational Path of Human Civilization

Ashvin: "We spend a lot of our time thinking about how much prices for specific goods will rise or fall next week or next month, and telling others what we imagine will happen. What kind of return will gold provide by the end of the Summer, or how about some local real estate?

Perhaps we are wondering how U.S. and European stock market valuations will be affected by the ongoing disasters in Japan, or the worsening sovereign debt situation in Europe. We ask people to tell us where and when the next Middle Eastern revolution will break out, and exactly how the global community will respond.

In the final analysis, the "predictors" just end up using the same speculative "value at-risk" models that global financial investors followed right off of an economic cliff in the first place.

Instead, we should content ourselves with knowing the generalized "solutions" derived from perturbation theory, and embracing its shortcomings. We start with the biggest influences on our global society and work our way down, until it becomes meaninglessly complex to continue."

p01 said...

jal said...
Keeping the comment section closed is impairing discussions.
Not to mention blogger is in comment-eating mode. I wrote a full novel of comments today, lost them all!*
*just kidding, but I did write the usual five-liners, and forgot to copy them rushing to log-in for fear that the comments will close while I was logging in (that happened also). :)

p01 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
p01 said...

@The Anonymous
I actually have a small T-amp I inscribed with 11. I like the snowball analogy better now, but just in case you're wondering, I'm 100% sure the world as you (we?) know it will end quite a bit before 2013 (hence 110%); that's the "Hail Mary pass with a completely broken shitcan" part of the comment you so gracefully left out in your digression.

FrankSchoenburg said...


You probably want to maintain liquidity.

trojanhorse said...


"Keeping the comment section closed is impairing discussions."

Not a complete solution, but if Ilargi and Stoneleigh were to make comment at the end of a session, before closing and moving on to the next new post, that would at least keep their identities clear of impersonators.

FrankSchoenburg said...


I've shorted AMZN at $234.80. It's made money so far but still has a big fall down IMO.

The problem with inverse ETF's is the daily compounding. If you take a look at the ETF over a long time period (say 6 months to a year) versus the underlying index, there are wide variances. This is due to the daily investment results.

I'm trying to find a way to short the S&P 500 or dow or whatever in a Roth IRA without using these ETF's.

Any suggestions?

Ilargi said...

New post up.

Reviving the Department of Subsistence Homesteads