Street haberdashery, New York City
Ilargi: There's a bad moon rising somewhere today. Not for the increasing numbers of people living in tent cities, they've been there and done it. All the happy talk passes them by. To get a home they need to find a job. But everyone agrees job losses will continue, even if the economy would really recover. If you don’t have a job, you ain't getting no home. And if you don’t have a home, you ain't getting a job. For many of the tent city dwellers, and the large numbers set to join them in the aftermath of mortgage resets, foreclosures and more job losses, that is their foreland.
There's a great piece of logic today in the Wall Street Journal that goes something like this: because so many people lost their jobs in the past 12-18 months, many more will find jobs. Or something. I kid you not. It's absolutely brilliant:
Pace of Job Losses Sets Stage for Quick Labor-Market Rebound
"But the biggest reason jobs might bounce back quicker from this downturn than the past two recessions, said Comerica Bank economist Dana Johnson, is that the economy looks likely to see a much bigger bounce as it recovers. Gross domestic product -- the value of all goods and services produced by the economy -- has fallen by 3.9% since economic output peaked last year, marking the steepest decline since the end of World War II. In contrast, the 2001 and 1990-91 recessions were among the shallowest on record.
History says that given the depth of the downturn, GDP should grow at a 6% to 8% rate over the next year..
Yes, history says so. That's one for the history books. Making up stuff like that must be highly satisfactory. It takes a lot of extra effort, of course, but you may well arrive at entirely new heights. And there'll always be people who believe you. I can't even say I'm sure I understand it. But it sure sounds pretty.
Still, I'm sticking with that bad moon. If we must have it, let's face it with honest minds. I don't take any pleasure in what's going to come under that moon, but neither do I long for any more empty promises and predictions.
Yes, stock markets have been going up. So what? That just means there's still money out there that's seeking a place to be. Or, more correctly, there was money out there when the rally started and now it's found a way to change hands. And when everybody and their pet parrot feels they need to get themselves a piece of the profits, that's when the lever for the false bottom is pulled. Tragic for many, but not exactly a unique event.
Consumers are still up to their necks in debt, the Obama administration requests permission to drag the nation deeper in, and companies across the industrial spectrum are hoarding cash as a buffer against what they fear will befall them once the bad moon starts rising. Namely, that they won't be able to pay back their debt. It's the same anguish that options trades are already acting on: a deep seated fear of September and October, a fear that is much less abstract and much more real than the childish green shoots mantra that has lifted markets in the first part of 2009.
We are at the tail end of a six month period of change we can believe in that hasn't changed much of anything, a period that will be remembered as one characterized primarily as an orgy of free money, free money for banks, for carbuyers and for homebuyers. We are soon to find out how free that money exactly has been. It may take another month, or two, it may take us into November even, if debt ceilings are raised and more stimulus plans full of free money are spread among the faithful flock.
But when the days shorten, when temperatures start dropping and that bad moon rises above a pale horizon, the time will loom for individuals, companies and governments to face their debts and make good on them. As governments from small to federal sink ever deeper into debt, while tax revenues sink into dark deep black holes, it'll be time for an increasing number among them to find themselves incapable of selling any more debt unless and until they pay off their old ones.
Which will lead to massive new job losses (Jefferson County last week laid off 2/3 of its workers), which will lead to more foreclosures, which will lead to more job losses. It will also lead to more bank failures, while the banks that are left standing will have no choice but to limit lending to a minimum, just in order to survive. Ironically, banks most often need that same lending business in order to survive. In order to make up for that lost business, many will put their money in what today seem to be solid investments, only to incur additional losses.
The appetite for risky investments that has greatly increased lately, driven largely by desperation over financial realities, will be the final straw for scores of individuals, governments and businesses. Double or nothing as the only way out will never work as a general principle. That is a reality that can only temporarily be hidden from view by what looks at first glance like free money. And then the bad moon will come to collect, and it won't appear so free anymore. Looks like we're in for nasty weather. One eye is taken for an eye.
I see the bad moon arising.
I see trouble on the way.
I see earthquakes and lightnin'.
I see bad times today.
Don't go around tonight,
Well, it's bound to take your life,
There's a bad moon on the rise.
I hear hurricanes a-blowing.
I know the end is coming soon.
I fear rivers overflowing.
I hear the voice of rage and ruin.
Hope you got your things together.
Hope you are quite prepared to die.
Looks like we're in for nasty weather.
One eye is taken for an eye.
Debt Burden to Weigh on Stocks
Economists are boosting growth forecasts. Employment numbers are improving. Manufacturing activity is bottoming. Housing demand is strengthening. Business leaders are starting to say the worst may be over.
Markets are celebrating, hoping the good news will keep on coming. But there is a smudge on the picture. A surprisingly large number of money managers and economists are warning that, despite the hopeful signs, the economy is still deep in the woods, not strong enough to support a long-running stock and bond recovery.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average now has jumped 43% from the 12-year low hit March 9. It finished Friday at 9370.07, its highest close since Nov. 4. Risky credit investments, such as junk bonds and even mortgage-backed securities, also have been recovering. "The question now is, 'Where do we go from here?' " John Osterweis, chief investment officer of Osterweis Capital Management, told clients in a recent report. "The simple answer is probably, 'Nowhere fast.' "According to this view, the market surge of the past five months has been a celebration of the government's success in staving off financial doom. Stocks deserved to rise from panic lows. To keep rising in the future, the market needs a sign of real economic recovery, and that requires a surge in consumer spending, business investment and home buying. That is what is in doubt, and one word explains why: debt. Despite an uptick in consumer saving, debt levels have only barely begun to come down. Even after the recession ends, economists expect the gradual reduction of the nation's massive consumer debt to take years. In the meantime, they are warning that the economic-growth surge expected for the second half of this year could be followed by slower growth and a softer stock market in 2010.
A survey of six leading Wall Street stock strategists, ordinarily a bullish bunch, shows them on average forecasting the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index at about 1033 by year's end. Their forecasts range from 930 to 1100. The S&P 500 finished Friday at 1010.48, already nearly at the average forecast. On Wednesday, in the wake of encouraging manufacturing and auto-sales data, economists at Goldman Sachs Group tripled their forecast for inflation-adjusted economic growth to a 3% annual rate for the second half of this year. And after that? They see the growth rate steadily declining to 2% in the first half of 2010 and 1.5% in the second half.
The debt data are striking. According to the Federal Reserve, total household indebtedness peaked at the end of 2007 at 132% of disposable income. That was by far the highest level since at least the end of World War II, nearly quadruple the 36% of 1952. By the end of March, with families boosting savings, repaying debt and defaulting, the ratio had fallen to 124%, a tad lower but still miles from the level of, say, 69% in the middle of 1985.
Consumer spending today accounts for two-thirds or more of economic output. But as they boost savings and cut borrowing, consumers can't be the drivers of economic growth that they were at the end of other recent recessions.
Consumer borrowing fell in June for the fifth consecutive month. The savings rate, which had fallen below zero in 2005 as a profligate nation spent more than it earned, was back to 6.9% of disposable income in May. It pulled back to 4.6% in June, but as people struggle to repay debt, many economists expect the savings rate gradually to return to the 7% to 10% range of the post-war years.
"Consumers are under significant financial pressure," Goldman notes in its report. "The weakness in household income -- partly resulting from the sharp slowdown in hourly wage growth -- will make it harder to raise saving without significant constraints on consumption." As for home building and capital spending, two other possible growth motors, "we do not expect a 'traditional' rebound in these sectors, largely because the overhang of unused capacity in both the housing and business sectors remains enormous," Goldman said.
Morgan Stanley, Goldman's big rival, is on pretty much the same page. "We believe that the painful adjustments to household and corporate balance sheets that are likely, given the excesses of the past, are enough to make the economic recovery a slow and tenuous one over the medium term," wrote Morgan Stanley economist Manoj Pradhan in a recent analysis. Nonsense! says Michael Darda, chief economist at brokerage firm MKM Partners in Greenwich, Conn., who bullishly and accurately predicted this year's huge rally in risky assets such as stocks and junk bonds."We continue to believe the consensus view of only 2% real [gross domestic product] growth for 2010 is far too tepid," Mr. Darda said in a recent report. He added, in another report, "The conventional wisdom has coalesced around the idea -- which goes virtually unchallenged -- that higher average savings on the part of households will ipso facto reduce the average rate of GDP growth during the impending recovery cycle." He says the pessimists once again are ignoring clear economic and financial signals, such as the continuing recovery in the corporate-bond market, which typically precede a recovery in stocks and in the economy. He thinks doubters soon will have still more egg on their faces. And he has been right so far.
In an effort to make sense of the increasingly intense disagreement, Bridgewater Associates, an often-contrarian money-management firm that oversees about $72 billion in nearby Westport, Conn., has recently sent clients a series of reports. Although the reports are complicated and detailed, their essence can be summarized simply. The optimists see signs that the recession is ending, and they forecast the normal next step: a stronger stock market. The pessimists believe the most important development isn't the end of the recession, it is the long process of debt reduction by families and businesses. Bridgewater lines up with the pessimists. It has been trying to avoid stocks tied to the U.S. economy in favor of those linked to the emerging economies of the developing world, notably China.
The bulls believe the economic and stock-market recoveries will continue to look like a V. The pessimists fear they will be more like a W -- or even a succession of W's. "And remember that the up-leg of a V and the first up of a W look the same when you are in them," says David Kotok, president of money-management firm Cumberland Advisors in Vineland, N.J. He is betting that the stock market will keep doing well for a while, and then will suffer as the economy sputters. "The U.S. is not out of the woods by a long shot," he says.
VIX Signals S&P 500 Swoon as September Approaches
Options traders are increasing bets that the steepest rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since the 1930s won’t survive September, historically the worst month for U.S. equities. Traders were betting the VIX, a gauge of expected stock swings, would increase 13 percent in the next five weeks, according to futures prices at the end of last week compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the biggest spread since August 2008, before the S&P 500 suffered the steepest two-month plunge in 21 years. The indexes have moved in the opposite direction 81 percent of the time over the past five years, Bloomberg data show.
VIX futures above the level of the index show investors expect fluctuations to widen and stocks to retreat. The S&P 500 has rallied 49 percent in five months, pushing valuations to the highest levels since December 2004. The S&P 500 gained 2.3 percent last week as reports showed home sales rose and the unemployment rate fell. "It’s a danger sign," said Ronald Egalka, a 36-year options trader who oversees $8 billion as chief executive officer of Rampart Investment Management in Boston. "People expect volatility to pick up in the future, and that implies that there’s going to be a downward movement in the market."
History shows that U.S. investors lose the most in September. The benchmark index for American equities fell 1.3 percent on average since 1928 that month, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The S&P 500 lost 0.3 percent to 1,007.10 at 4 p.m. in New York. Mark Mobius said global stocks will drop as much as 30 percent following their recovery from last year’s rout as companies take advantage of the rebound to sell more shares.
"When you have these rapid increases almost without correction, you will definitely have a correction," Mobius, who oversees about $25 billion as executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management Ltd., said in an interview in Kuala Lumpur today. "We can expect a lot of volatility." The S&P 500 plunged 9.1 percent last September after New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed. The biggest drop occurred in September 1931 during the Great Depression, when the S&P 500 tumbled 30 percent. February is the only other month when stocks fell on average since 1928, losing 0.3 percent, Bloomberg data show.
The VIX, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, usually moves in the opposite direction of the S&P 500 because demand for insurance rises as stocks fall. VIX futures expiring in September were 3.29 points higher than the index on Aug. 7, and last month were as much as 5.91 points higher, a record gap for so-called second-month contracts. Last week’s spread was comparable to the one in August 2008. The VIX added 0.9 percent to 24.99 today, while the September futures contract was unchanged at 28.05.
The index has averaged 20.22 over its 19-year history and surpassed 50 for the first time in October after Lehman filed for the biggest U.S. bankruptcy. Frozen credit markets and bank losses approaching $1 trillion tied to subprime loans pushed the measure to a record 89.53 on Oct. 24. Losses at the world’s biggest financial companies now exceed $1.5 trillion, according to Bloomberg data. Last week’s reading indicated a 68 percent likelihood the S&P 500 would fluctuate as much as 7.2 percent in the next 30 days, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
"VIX futures are telling you that investors are willing to pay a premium for protection," said David Palmer, who helps oversee $300 million as volatility portfolio manager at Hudson Bay Capital Management LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that returned 11 percent last year, according to Absolute Return magazine. "People expect some sort of a break in the market."
Hedge funds lost an average 18.3 percent in 2008, according to Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc. The S&P 500 declined 38 percent, the worst performance since 1937. Options strategists saw the same upward-sloping curve last August, before the S&P 500 tumbled 9.1 percent in September and 17 percent in October. VIX futures two months from expiration were 4.11 points higher than the VIX on Aug. 22, when the index slumped to an 11-week low of 18.81.
Volatility may be increasing for reasons unrelated to stock prices, according to Macro Risk Advisors LLC, a New York-based options brokerage. Traders who sold bullish options when the rally began on expectations the gain would fizzle may be buying them back now, Dean Curnutt, the firm’s president, wrote in a note. That demand could be artificially boosting the VIX.
U.S. companies are also beating analysts’ earnings estimates at an almost record rate, making investors more bullish, according to Rob Morgan, who helps oversee $6 billion as market strategist at Clermont Wealth Strategies in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. For the second quarter, 72.2 percent of S&P 500 companies surpassed consensus estimates for profit, just below the 72.3 percent ratio five years ago that was the highest since at least 1993, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Investors still hold more than $3.6 trillion of their assets in money-market funds, equal to about 30 percent of the total market capitalization of U.S. companies, according to data compiled by the Washington-based Investment Company Institute and Bloomberg. That’s double the percentage when the S&P 500 reached its all-time high in October 2007, the data show.
The number of contracts to buy previously owned homes in the U.S. rose 3.6 percent in June, the fifth straight monthly increase and more than economists estimated, as lower prices and mortgage rates lured buyers, the National Association of Realtors said Aug. 4. The unemployment rate fell for the first time in more than a year, dipping to 9.4 percent from a 26-year high of 9.5 percent, the Labor Department said Aug. 7.
"There’s a good underpinning to the market here, and the VIX is just one tool in the toolbox," Morgan said. "Stocks follow earnings and revisions are going up and you also have a boatload of cash still sitting on the sidelines as the economy is turning." The S&P 500 will keep rallying this year as exports to expanding Asian economies help U.S. companies boost profits, David Bianco, the chief U.S. equity strategist at Bank of America Corp., wrote in a report today. Bianco said S&P 500 companies will earn $59 a share this year, tying him with Credit Suisse Group AG’s Andrew Garthwaite for the highest estimate among 11 strategists that Bloomberg tracks who have 2009 profit projections. Bianco is based in New York, while Garthwaite is in London.
Paul Tudor Jones, the hedge fund manager whose $8.9 billion Tudor BVI fund gained 10 percent this year through July, said he expects that global stocks may "pause in September" on slower Chinese economic growth. The advance since March is a "bear- market rally," Jones wrote in a report to clients last week. "We are not inclined to aggressively chase the market here." The S&P 500 traded for 18.6 times its companies’ average earnings this year at the end of last week, the highest since December 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The first global recession since World War II may worsen as more Americans get thrown out of work and the benefits of government spending wear off, according to Martin Feldstein of Harvard University. "There is a real danger this is going to be a double dip and that after six months or so we’ll have some more bad news," Feldstein, the former head of the National Bureau of Economic Research, said on Bloomberg Television last month. "We could slide down again in the fourth quarter."
The U.S. economy contracted at a 1 percent annual pace in the second quarter, less than economists forecast, as government spending increased the most since 2003. The outlays, part of President Barack Obama’s $787 billion stimulus package approved in February, masked a 1.2 percent drop in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy.
Almost half of U.S. homeowners with a mortgage are likely to owe more than their properties are worth before the housing recession ends, Karen Weaver and Ying Shen, New York-based analysts at Deutsche Bank AG, wrote in a report dated Aug. 5. The percentage of "underwater" loans may rise to 48 percent, or 25 million homes, as prices drop through the first quarter of 2011, according to Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank. As of March 31, the share of homes mortgaged for more than their value was 26 percent, or about 14 million properties.
Profit for companies in the S&P 500 will fall 22 percent this quarter before an earnings rebound by financial institutions spurs a 61 percent increase in the last three months of the year, according to analysts’ estimates. Excluding banks, brokerages and insurance companies, profits are projected to drop 8.6 percent in the fourth quarter. U.S. stock trading has also slowed by the most in at least two decades. An average of 1.34 billion shares changed hands daily on the New York Stock Exchange between May 1 and Aug. 7, about 16 percent less than the average from Jan. 1 to April 30.
That’s the biggest drop since at least 1989, according to data compiled by Harrison, New York-based research firm Bespoke Investment Group LLC. "There’s always a real risk that a rally is going to be tested," said Stephen Wood, New York-based chief market strategist for North America at Russell Investments, which had $151.8 billion in assets under management as of June 30. "Investors are thinking that giving up some upside to hedge the downside is a very reasonable investment profile."
Treasurers’ Fear of Next Credit Freeze Shown in Cash Hoarding
Two years after credit markets seized up and caused the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, companies are hoarding the most cash in at least a decade. "Every action we take or contemplate taking is measured by its impact on our balance sheet and liquidity," Mark Jacobs, the chief executive officer of Houston-based RRI Energy Inc., told analysts and investors on Aug. 3. The company sold its Texas retail electricity business and the Reliant brand name in May, helping triple cash and equivalents from a year earlier to 18 percent of assets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Even as government reports show that the first global recession since World War II may be easing, corporate treasurers are raising cash as fast as they can, wary of losing access to capital. Corporate defaults reached 10.7 percent worldwide in July, the highest since 1991, according to Moody’s Investors Service. Credit markets that started to freeze in August 2007, have now triggered more than $1.5 trillion in writedowns and losses at the world’s biggest financial institutions. Cash and short-term investments accounted for about $1.98 trillion, or 8.2 percent, of assets at the end of the second quarter for companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index, up from about $1.6 trillion, or 6.4 percent, a year earlier, Bloomberg data show. Cash reached a record $2 trillion in the first quarter, 8.3 percent of assets.
"Cash is king," said Paul Kasriel, the chief economist at Northern Trust Corp. in Chicago. "Businesses are in survival mode right now." While companies sold a record $837.9 billion of bonds this year and raised $109.8 billion in stock offerings, the increase in cash shows they are following the lead of consumers, who pushed the U.S. savings rate to a 14-year high of 6.2 percent in May. "There’s going to be a generational psychology shift as to how you and I and the rest of the world think about finance," said Jonathan Fine, a managing director on the investment-grade syndicate desk at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York. "People will keep cash on hand so long as what happened in the last two years remains so visible in the rearview mirror."
General Electric Co., the world’s biggest maker of power- plant turbines, increased cash and short-term investments at the fastest pace in 14 years in the second quarter, to $97.5 billion, or 12.5 percent of assets, from $64.9 billion, or 7.7 percent, a year earlier, Bloomberg data show. The Fairfield, Connecticut-based company raised about $49 billion this year with unsecured and government-guaranteed debt through its GE Capital Corp. finance arm as CEO Jeffrey Immelt began boosting cash after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September.
"We’ve done a lot of stress testing in terms of making sure we’ve got sufficient liquidity, sufficient cash," Kathryn Cassidy, GE’s treasurer, said in an interview. That wasn’t the thinking until defaults on subprime mortgages made to consumers with poor credit began accelerating in 2007, causing losses on securities backed by the loans. Concern that the contagion would spread led investors to rein in credit. The asset-backed commercial paper market contracted about 20 percent in five weeks from its peak in August 2007. Paris- based BNP Paribas SA said it halted withdrawals from three investment funds on Aug. 9 because France’s largest bank couldn’t "fairly" value their holdings. High-yield, high-risk companies such as Plainview, New York-based Aeroflex Inc., a maker of testing gear for the aerospace and defense industries, were forced to delay or cancel bond sales.
That month, the Federal Reserve, in a surprise move, cut the interest rate it charged banks. It would ultimately lower its target rate for overnight loans between banks to between zero and 0.25 percent from 5.25 percent.
As the financial crisis spread, New York-based Lehman Brothers, which was founded in 1850, filed for the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history. The government bailed out American International Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc., while Bear Stearns Cos. and Merrill Lynch & Co. were acquired. The government assumed control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the nation’s two biggest mortgage-finance companies.
The collapse of so many financial giants worsened the credit freeze. Rates banks charged each other for three-month loans soared about fourfold to a record 4.63 percentage points more than Treasury bills of the same maturity on Oct. 10 from 1.17 percentage point a month earlier. Speculative-grade companies, those with ratings below Baa3 by Moody’s and BBB- at S&P, got shut out of the bond market as the extra yield investors demanded to own their debt soared to more than 20 percentage points above Treasuries, according to Merrill indexes. Before the markets collapsed, the spread was less than 3 percentage points.
"It’s been a road to hell," said Pat Freeman, treasurer of Calgary-based Agrium Inc., North America’s third-largest fertilizer producer. The company saw its shares tumble to as low as $23.31 from a high of $112.45 in June 2008. They closed at $49.12 last week. "You never know when the market might shut down on you." Unprecedented steps by the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve halted the slide as they spent, lent or committed $12.8 trillion to revive the economy, Bloomberg data show. Access to credit still remains limited for companies that need it the most. Defaults may rise to 12.2 percent worldwide in the fourth quarter, according to Moody’s. Commercial and industrial loans fell to $1.48 trillion at the end of July, down 11 percent from a peak of $1.65 trillion in October, Fed data show.
Yield spreads on junk bonds ended last week at 8.57 percentage points on average, Merrill data show. For investment- grade companies, the difference is 2.54 percentage points. While down a record 6.56 percentage points in December, it’s above the average 1.42 points this decade before the credit seizure. Even with the relatively high rates, U.S. corporate bond issuance in the first half rose 11 percent from the previous record pace in 2007, as businesses repaid short-term loans, Bloomberg data show. Stock sales were about double the same period of 2007.
"The days of excessive leverage are over," said Scott Minerd, who helps supervise more than $100 billion as chief investment officer of Guggenheim Partners LLC in Santa Monica, California. "Having term financing in place and not having yourself be vulnerable to a refinancing event is an important feature in every balance sheet." Signs the recession is easing may encourage companies to spend more cash, said Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst at S&P in New York. "Once they believe the economy is getting better and not just less worse, they’ll start spending," Silverblatt said.
The economy is showing signals of improving. Payrolls fell by 247,000 in July, after a 443,000 loss in June, the Labor Department said Aug. 7 in Washington. The jobless rate unexpectedly dropped to 9.4 percent from 9.5 percent. The recession may have ended in July, said Jeffrey Frankel, a member of the committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research that dates business cycles. The median estimate of 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg is for growth of 2.10 percent in 2010, after a contraction of 2.50 percent this year.
"Confidence is improving but there are still a lot of people who are nervous," Ronald Millos, chief financial officer of Vancouver-based Teck Resources Ltd., Canada’s largest base- metals producer, said in an interview.
Teck eliminated its annual dividend last year, fired employees and reduced capital spending "to the bone" to bolster the confidence of lenders and investors, Millos said. The company sold $4.23 billion of notes in U.S. dollars in May at interest rates as high as 10.75 percent to retire short- term borrowing that funded last year’s purchase of Fording Canadian Coal Trust. When Teck issued $700 million of debt in 2005, it paid a coupon of 6.125 percent.
Pitney Bowes Inc., the world’s largest maker of postal meters, replaced commercial paper -- debt due in nine months or less -- with bonds after Lehman’s collapse reduced the availability of short-term financing. The company sold $300 million of 10-year, 6.25 percent bonds on March 2 at a spread of 3.38 percentage points. The average rate on 30-day commercial paper sold by non-financial companies ended last week at 0.15 percent, according to the Fed. "Our approach in general changed in the sense of giving ourselves a lot more event-risk protection," said Helen Shan, vice president and treasurer at Stamford, Connecticut-based Pitney Bowes.
RRI’s decision to sell its Texas energy provider freed up almost $3 billion of capital, Jacobs said. It also presented an opportunity for NRG Energy Inc., which snapped up the business for $288 million, said Robert Flexon, chief financial officer at the Princeton, New Jersey-based power producer. The purchase boosted NRG’s earnings by $233 million, according to a July 30 regulatory filing. "When you look back on the market over the last year, if you’re going to make a mistake, it’s to have too much liquidity," Flexon said in an interview. "In an environment like this, where liquidity is tight, the opportunities for investment are probably at their peak."
NRG had about 8.4 percent cash as a percentage of assets on its balance sheet in the second quarter, up from 4.9 percent the previous period and 4.7 percent a year earlier, Bloomberg data show. The company sold $700 million of 10-year, 8.5 percent notes on June 2 priced to yield 5.06 percentage points more than similar-maturity Treasuries. The last two years "really showed the importance of maintaining adequate cash and liquid investments so you’re not relying solely on banks," Flexon said. "We carry cash balances today of over $1 billion. We invest that primarily in U.S. government-backed overnight securities, so it’s an extremely liquid investment.
Corporate Earnings Are No Sign of Recovery
Despite grim predictions, most major U.S. companies have reported positive earnings for the second quarter of 2009. Given how wrong past predictions have been, the fact that earnings have blown away expectations shouldn’t be so surprising. Still, the numbers are genuinely impressive: More than 73% of the companies that have reported so far have beaten earnings estimates—and stocks have rightly rallied.
Yes, profits are down sharply from a year ago, but this is in the context of an overall global economy that is shrinking. If a company made $30 million on $100 million in revenue a year ago, and made "only" $20 million this quarter, it’s accurate to have a headline that says its profits fell 33%. But making $20 million, or a 20% margin, in an economy that contracted is nonetheless startling, or should be. The same Wall Street culture that failed to anticipate the tipping point in the financial system is just as prone to a herd mentality of negativity. Having overlooked the gaping fissures in the system last year, most analysts went to the other extreme in their analysis of what would happen this year. A similar process occurred in 2002 and 2003, as views whipsawed from unrealistic optimism to irrational pessimism.
This time, the slew of better earnings has also led to the conviction that the worst of the economic travails are behind us. As the stock market has soared, many have declared the recession either over or ending. These voices range from public officials at the Federal Reserve to notable pessimists such as New York University economist Nouriel Roubini. This rosy view assumes a connection between how listed companies are fairing and how the national economy will fair. That assumption is wrong.
The delinkage of the fate of corporate profits from that of the overall economy is not new. Beginning earlier in this decade, profits began to accelerate far in excess of either global or U.S. economic growth. In 2004, for instance, earnings for the S&P 500 grew 22%; in 2005 and 2006 they grew just under 20%. Those same years global growth barely exceeded 3%. As we now know, some of those elevated earnings were due to the leverage-fueled profits of the financial-service industry. And there’s little doubt that mortgage-laced derivatives artificially elevated growth. But even discounting those factors, the growth of corporate profits would have substantially exceeded the expansion of national economies.
Then, in the second half of last year and the first months of this year, profits plunged along with U.S. and global economic activity. That gave succor to the belief that companies can only grow as much as the economies in which they function grow. For years, most analysts argued that if there was too wide a variance between the two, something had to give. Either profits had to descend or national economic growth had to accelerate. As profits shrank over the past nine months, those who argued that a reversion to the mean was inevitable seemed to be vindicated. But that belief is wrong. Companies are increasingly less constrained by any national economy, and their success is no harbinger of national economic growth or sustained economic health for the United States.
First, companies have been profiting because they can cut costs aggressively. It’s not as if demand in the U.S. or Europe has picked up. Take Starbucks, which reported a surprising surge in profits. Little of that was due to American consumers suddenly becoming comfortable with $5 grande mocha lattes. Instead, it was because Starbucks—faced with weak demand and sluggish sales—closed stores and laid off workers. That has been a trend across industries.
Second, many larger companies have been profiting because they can focus on where the growth is around the globe. Companies such as Intel, Caterpillar, Microsoft and IBM now derive a majority of their revenues from outside the U.S., with the dynamic economies of the Asian rim and above all China assuming an ever-larger role. Companies are thriving in spite of economic activity in the U.S., not because of it.
That suggests the connection between corporate profits and robust economic recovery in the U.S. is tenuous at best. In fact, the financial crisis hastened the trend toward efficiencies, toward leaner inventories, and towards integrating both technology and global supply chains that has been taking place over the past decade. That has led to severe pressure on the American working class and eroding employment. As these companies profit from global expansion and greater efficiency, they have little or no reason to rehire fired workers, or to expand their work force in a U.S. that is barely growing. If you are a global company, you want to hire and expand where the most dynamic growth is. Unfortunately for Americans, that’s not the U.S.
So we are facing a conundrum: Companies can grow by leaps and bounds—by double-digits—and yet unemployment can skyrocket and remain high. There is nothing on the horizon that would lead one to expect a turnaround in the employment picture. Job losses slowed slightly last month as the unemployment rate fell to 9.4% in July from 9.5% in June, but that’s a far cry from any sign of job creation. The weight of more than 20 million marginally employed or unemployed, combined with the increasing pace of economic activity outside the U.S., presents the prospect of permanent change in the American economic landscape: high unemployment, moderate to weak growth, and soaring corporate profits.
The ability of companies—large ones especially, but even more modest ventures that assemble and source globally—to become more efficient and go where the growth is has never been greater. This is undoubtedly good for stocks and positive for investors, but it is also a challenge for American society that we have not even begun to confront.
History suggests bears will hold sway after rally
In the past five months, the world’s stock markets have gained more than 50 per cent. Anyone who timed the rally right should now be feeling much happier. Others may at least have recouped a chunk of last year’s losses. The big question now is: where next? This rally is not unprecedented but history offers few comparisons. Those that exist are all imperfect and contradict each other. But rallies in the last century stand out:
1930. In the wake of the Great Crash, the S&P 500 staged a rally a lot like this one. From its low on November 12 1929, it rallied 47.2 percent in five months. This fooled many. Anyone who bought at the top of the rally, on April 10 1930, would have lost 83 percent over the next two years. If there is a rally for the bears to cite in their cause, this is it.
1932. Marking the very bottom of the 1930s’ bear market and arguably the most impressive rally in stock market history, the S&P did twice as well as in this current rally, in half the time. It rose by 111 per cent in the 10 weeks from July 8. This time, the lows were never revisited. But the outlook was not good. After that violent upswing, just before the election of Franklin D Roosevelt, the bear market dragged on for decades, with gains only for opportunists. The S&P fell 25 percent once more by the end of 1932 and it would fall below its level of September 1932 in 1934 and again in 1938. This was not a great time to buy and hold.
1975. After the savage 1973-74 bear market, stocks enjoyed a 53.8 percent rally from October 12 1974 to July 15 1975. In one five-month span, it gained 47.1 percent. In hindsight, it looks like a cousin of the 1932 rally, as the rally gave way to a bear market that ground on for the rest of the decade. Stocks were no higher three years later. Profits were only for opportunists.
1982. With Paul Volcker at the Federal Reserve still attacking inflation, and Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan applying unpopular economic medicine, the 15-year bear market suddenly ended. In the five months after August 12 1982, the S&P gained 43 percent, starting a secular bull market that lasted until the tech bubble burst 18 years later. August 1982 was possibly the best time ever to buy stocks; early 1983 was still a good time. This is the rally that bulls call to their aid. Those alarmed by the potential for fresh crises in emerging markets can even point out that this rally survived the first great Mexican devaluation crisis, which hit in the early weeks of the equity rally.
What did these rallies have in common? Pessimism had grown overwhelmingly, with fear far outbalancing greed when they started. Except for 1930, they came near the end of severe recessions. They have both points in common with the current rally. But there are differences. The rallies of 1932, 1975 and 1982 came when stocks were unambiguously cheap, and were still cheap after the initial 50 percent rally. The cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio, a multiple of average earnings over 10 years, was at extreme lows. But in 1930, stocks never dropped to long-term fair value before rallying and were blatantly expensive by the time the rally ended. This time, prices fell a bit below their long-term average for a few months but the rally has already brought them back to look expensive.
In the critical sense of valuation, then, this rally looks nothing like 1932, 1975 or 1982. It looks a little more like 1930. The environment of inflation and interest rates differed widely. In 1930, western economies were lapsing into deflation; in 1932, the world was mired in deflation; in 1975, it was stuck in inflation; and in 1982, inflation was high but coming under control. The current picture does not fit with any of these - consumer price inflation in the west has been tame for decades. Last year’s crisis created the risk of severe deflation but the prompt decision by governments to throw money at the problem is a huge point of difference from 1930. Those who believe the deflationary scenario can logically forecast a repeat of the 1930 collapse in share prices. But this is a pessimistic point of view.
Parallels with 1982 do not work any better. The 1980s’ huge gains from steadily lowering rates and innovation in the financial sector are not available this time around. The very opposite is more likely. The 1932 rally came in truly extreme conditions. But the 1975 rally may be a decent match; it came during a restocking boom after companies had slashed inventories (very much what the market is betting on now), at a point when oil prices were volatile and exerting a big influence on the economy. The world now is still different in many important respects from 1975 but this may just be the best comparison. That would suggest the most likely outcome now is a protracted dose of directionless trading. For those more optimistic or pessimistic, you have your examples to hang on to.
Deleveraging the U.S. Economy
We are in the process of deleveraging the most leveraged economy in history. Many investors look at this deleveraging as a positive for the United States. We, on the other hand, look at this deleveraging as a major negative that will weigh on the economy for years to come and we could wind up with a lost couple of decades just as Japan experienced over the past 20 years. It is true that Japan didn't act as quickly as we did but our debt ratio presently is much worse than Japan's debt ratios throughout their deleveraging process.Presently, the stock market is exploding to the upside, which you could say argues against the case we are attempting to make in this special report. However, if you step back and look at the larger picture, you can see that the stock market is still down over 35% from the highs reached in 2007 and also down over 33% from the highs reached in early 2000. In fact, the market now is acting in the same manner as it did in early 2000 at the peak of the dot com bubble and again in 2006 & 2007 at the combined housing and stock market bubble.
This seems to us to be a "mini bubble" of stocks reacting to an abundance of "money printing" by governments all over the world since stocks are rising worldwide. Of course, if the U.S. doesn't recover there will be no worldwide recovery since the rest of the world is still dependent upon the U.S. consumers' appetite for their goods and services (despite the so called growth of domestic consumption in China and India). We, however, don't believe that the U.S. massive stimulus programs and money printing can solve a problem of excess debt generation that resulted from greed and living way beyond our means. If this were the answer Argentina would be one of the most prosperous countries in the world. This excess debt actually resulted from the same money printing and easy money that we are now using to alleviate the pain.
Most investors believe the bailouts, stimulus plans, and quantitative easing will lead to inflation. In fact, almost all of the bearish prognosticators are negative because of the fear that interest rates will rise once the inflation starts to work its way into the economy. They point to the doubling of the monetary base which they believe will soon lead to rising prices as more dollars are created chasing the same amount of goods. We, on the other hand, are not as concerned about the doubling of the monetary base because we believe the excess money will need the money multiplier and increases in velocity in order to increase aggregate demand and eventually inflation. As long as velocity (turnover of money) is stagnant we expect the increases in the monetary base and all the quantitative easing will lead to a stagnant economy and deflation until the consumer goes into the same borrowing and spending patterns that was characteristic of the 1990s through 2007.
Remember, over the past decade (when we believe the secular bear market started) the total debt in the U.S. doubled from $26 trillion in 2000 to just over $52 trillion presently (peaking a few months ago at $54 trillion). This consists of $14 trillion of gross Federal, State and Local Government debt and $38 trillion of private debt. We expect the private debt to continue declining in the future as the deleveraging of America unfolds, while the government debt will very likely explode to the upside as the government tries to slow down the private deleveraging by helping out the entities and individuals in the most trouble with debt (such as over-extended homeowners).
We wrote a special report in January of this year titled "Substituting Debt for Savings and Productive Investment" in which we explained why the U.S. economy historically prospered because of hard working Americans saving a substantial amount of their income which was used for productive investment. Unfortunately, all of this changed over the past few decades and got worse over the past decade. In fact, we stated in the report that it took $1.50 of debt to generate $1 of GDP in the 1960s, $1.70 to generate $1 of GDP in the '70s, $2.90 in the '80s, $3.20 in the '90s, and an unbelievable $5.40 of debt to generate $1 of GDP in the latest decade. Over the past two decades, while most investors thought this trend could continue indefinitely, we have been warning them of the catastrophic problems associated with this ballooning debt.
The attached chart of total debt relative to GDP shows exactly how much debt grew in this country relative to GDP (it is now 375% of GDP). The total debt grew to over $52 trillion relative to our current GDP of approximately $14 trillion. This is worse than the debt to GDP relationship in the great depression (even when the GDP imploded) and greater than the debt to GDP that existed in Japan in 1989. Even if you took the debt to GDP when the U.S. entered the secular bear market in early 2000 and compared that to 1929 and Japan in late 1989, our debt to GDP still exceeded both (by a substantial margin relative to 1929). The approximate numbers at that time were about 275% in the U.S. in early 2000, 190% in 1929, and about 270% in Japan in 1989.
In fact, the similarities between Japan's deleveraging and the U.S. presently are eerie. Japan's total debt to GDP increased from 270% when their secular bear market started to just about 350% 7 years later (1998) before declining to 110% presently. The U.S. increased their total debt to GDP from 275% of GDP when our secular bear market started (in our opinion) to 375% presently (10 years later), and we suspect the total debt to decline similar to Japan's even though the Japanese govenment debt tripled during their deleveraging. The government debt relative to GDP was about 50% in both the U.S. and Japan when the secular bear market started. We also suspect that our government debt will grow substantially just like it did in Japan as the private debt collapses. Also, the Japanese stock market doubled during the three years preceding their secular bear market in 1987, 1988, and 1989 while the U.S. market also doubled during the three years preceding the beginning of our secular bear market in 1997, 1998, and 1999.
There also a few significant differences between the U.S. and Japan. The private debt in Japan was almost the reverse of the U.S. where most of our excess debt was in the household sector and most of the excess debt in Japan was in the corporate sector. The debt to GDP figures in Japan were not easy to come by from the typical sources until the mid 1990s and had to be estimated, but should be pretty close to the numbers used above. Our sources on the above Japanese debt figures came from Ned Davis Research and the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. NDR's report, "Japan's Lost Decade-- Is the U.S. Next?" have great statistics and information and the Fed's report "U.S. Household Deleveraging and Future Consumption Growth" is well worth reading.
The Fed study charted the peak of the debt related bubble of the stock and real estate assets in Japan in 1991 (1989 for stocks and 1991 for real estate) and overlaid it with the peak of U.S. debt associated with the same assets in 2008. They concluded that if we are able to liquidate our debt at the same rate as Japan we would have to increase our savings rate from the present 6% (artificially high due to the recent stimulus paid to households) today to around 10% in 2018. If U.S. households were to undertake a similar deleveraging, the collective debt-to-income ratio which peaked in 2008 at 133% (H/H debt vs. Disposable Personal Income) would need to drop to around 100% by 2018, returning to the level that prevailed in 2002.
If the savings rate in the U.S. were to rise to the 10% level by 2018 (following the Japanese experience), the SF Fed economists calculate that it would subtract ¾ of 1% from annual consumption growth each year. We did a weekly comment about this very subject on June 25 of this year and came to a similar conclusion. In that same report we showed that from 1955 to 1985 that consumption accounted for around 62% of GDP. Because of the debt driven consumption over the past few years at the end of March 2009 consumption accounted for over 70% of GDP. If the percentage dropped to the normal low 60% area of GDP it would subtract about $1 trillion off of consumption (or from $10 trillion to $9 trillion). We also showed in that same report that H/H debt averaged 55% of GDP over the past 55 years and was 64% as late as 1995. It has since soared to over 100% of GDP giving a big boost to spending that will be reversed as the deleveraging takes place over the next few years.
Other problems we have in the U.S. that will exacerbate the deleveraging are excess capacity, unemployment rates skyrocketing (putting a damper on wages), credit availability contracting, and dramatic declines in net worth. The attached chart of capacity utilization is self evident that excess capacity in the U.S. has just dropped to record lows with the manufacturing capacity dropping to under 65% and total capacity utilization is just a touch better at 68%. It is very hard to imagine corporations adding fixed investment at this time. With unemployment rates close to 10% and rising, it is unlikely that wages will grow anytime soon. The charts on credit availability and net worth reductions are self explanatory and will also put a damper on consumer spending rising anytime soon.
We expect that the U.S. deleveraging will follow along the path of Japan for years as real estate continues to decline and the deleveraging extracts a significant toll from any growth the economy might experience. We also expect that, just like Japan, the stock market will also be sluggish to down during the next few years as the most leveraged economy in history unwinds the debt.
Total Credit Market Debt as a % of GDP
H/H Debt relative to Disposable Income
Savings Rate
Personal Consumption vs. GDP
H/H Debt vs. GDP
Credit Conditions
Capacity Utilization
Net Worth
Cities Tolerate Homeless Camps
Last summer, police responding to complaints about campfires under a highway overpass found dozens of homeless people living on public land along the Cumberland River. Eviction notices went up -- and then were suspended by Nashville Mayor Karl Dean, a Democrat, who said housing for the homeless should be found first. A year later, little has been found -- and Nashville, with help from local nonprofits, is now servicing a tent city, arranging for portable toilets, trash pickup, a mobile medical van and visits from social workers. Volunteers bring in firewood for the camp's 60 or so dwellers.
Nashville is one of several U.S. cities that these days are accommodating the homeless and their encampments, instead of dispersing them. With local shelters at capacity, "there is no place to put them," said Clifton Harris, director of Nashville's Metropolitan Homeless Commission, says of tent-city dwellers. In Florida, Hillsborough County plans to consider a proposal Tuesday by Catholic Charities to run an emergency tent city in Tampa for more than 200 people. Dave Rogoff, the county health and services director, said he preferred to see a "hard roof over people's heads." But that takes real money, he said: "We're trying to cut $110 million out of next year's budget."
Ontario, a city of 175,000 residents about 40 miles east of Los Angeles, provides guards and basic city services for a tent city on public land. A church in Lacey, Wash., near the state capital of Olympia, recently started a homeless camp in its parking lot after the city changed local ordinances to permit it. The City Council in Ventura, Calif., last month revised its laws to permit sleeping in cars overnight in some areas. City Manager Rick Cole said most of the car campers are temporarily unemployed, "and in this economy, temporary can go on a long time."
After years of enforcing a tough anticamping law to break up homeless clusters, Sacramento recently formed a task force to look into designating homeless tracts because shelters are overflowing. One refuge in the California capital, St. John's Shelter for Women and Children, is turning away about 350 people a night, compared with 25 two years ago, said executive director Michele Steeb. Some communities may be "less inclined to crack down quite as hard on people" because of the recession, said Barry Lee, a professor of sociology and demography at Pennsylvania State University.
Municipal leniency isn't universal. New York City officials last month shut down a tent city on a vacant lot in East Harlem. It was erected partly as shelter and partly to campaign for more-affordable housing. Seattle authorities have repeatedly booted off public land a tent city that popped up last year. Anticipating Tuesday's vote on the homeless proposal in Tampa, hundreds of neighbors in a nearby 325-house subdivision have formed the "Stop Tent City" coalition. They are gathering petitions, passing out lawn signs and threatening lawsuits. Hal Hart, a paralegal and a neighbor who is part of the coalition, testified at the county meeting that a tent city would "devalue my home" and "devalue my community." He lives 300 feet from the proposed park.
Some homeless are battling mental illness or addictions, or both. Municipal officials in the U.S. acknowledge the tent cities can breed crime and unsanitary conditions, but with public shelter scarce, they say they have to weigh whether to spend police time to break up encampments that are likely to resurface elsewhere. Pastors in Champaign, Ill., last week asked the City Council to allow people to live in organized tent communities of as many as 50 people. Legalizing the camps is more compassionate and cost-effective than forcing "poor people who are camping because they have a lack of better choices to constantly have to fear being rousted and cited by police," says Joan Burke, advocacy director for Sacramento Loaves & Fishes, a homeless-assistance agency.
In Nashville, Mr. Harris, director of the city's homeless commission, said tent cities have existed for years, but he has seen the numbers surge. He now knows of 30 encampments. While some people are chronically homeless, he said, foreclosures have forced others into the streets, as has Tennessee's 10.8% unemployment rate, the highest in 25 years. Nashville estimates that on any given day, the city has 4,000 homeless people and 765 shelter beds. About 25% of the homeless have jobs, Mr. Harris said, but can't afford housing. A nonprofit coalition of 160 churches called Room in the Inn said it received 816 requests for financial assistance to ward off evictions or electricity shutoffs in July, up from 499 in July 2008.
More housing could be available soon. Tennessee will receive $53 million in federal stimulus money to help pay for the development of affordable rental housing across the state, the federal government announced last month. While no one is suggesting that the tent city that popped up on police radar last summer is a permanent solution, local churches and synagogues are trying to give residents there a sense of order. The Otter Creek Church of Christ built residents a shower, with a fiberglass stall, plywood door and garden hose, and on Friday, associate minister Doug Sanders went to the tent city in what is the start of a church project to help residents institute some type of formal rules -- for everything from cleaning the shower to determining the progress residents should have to show toward finding housing.
The city and local nonprofits have found permanent housing for about 25 people from the tent city. Many haven't been so lucky. David Olson, 47 years old, said last week he and his wife wound up under the Nashville overpass after he lost a job making cement pipes in Iowa four months ago. The couple came to Nashville for a remodeling job that turned out to be a scam. "I've got five years' experience in carpentry and 10 years' roofing and I can't find a job," he said.
Mr. Olson, his arms and shirt caked with dirt, said life is hard in the swampy woods. The couple woke up to mud after a night of rain. His wife said she is frightened by the dogs that roam around the encampment. As mosquitoes buzzed, they tried to set up camp on higher ground. They struggled to secure a tarpaulin over their tent to keep out the rain. Mr. Olson's wife, holding onto a pole to prop up the tarp, cried. "I'm not used to living like this."
Freddie Mac Says Its Loss From Taylor Bean May Be 'Significant'
Freddie Mac, the mortgage-finance company under government control being supported by taxpayers, said the collapse of lender Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corp. may cause it "significant" losses. Taylor Bean, the 12th-largest U.S. mortgage originator, shuttered its lending business last week after being suspended by U.S. agencies and Freddie Mac. The Federal Housing Administration cited possible financial-statement fraud.
The Ocala, Florida-based lender accounted for about 5.2 percent of Freddie Mac’s single-family mortgage purchases last year, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing by the McLean, Virginia-based company on Aug. 7. Freddie Mac can force lenders to repurchase defaulted loans that weren’t of the credit quality they represented, a use of its contracts already made harder by the collapses of IndyMac Bancorp., Washington Mutual Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the company said.
"We are in the process of determining our total exposure to TBW in the event it cannot perform its contractual obligations to us," Freddie Mac said in the filing. "The amount of our losses in such event could be significant."
Lenders bought back $1.7 billion of home loans from Freddie Mac during the first six months of this year, up from $737 million during the same period of 2008, according to the filing. Lenders also can promise to cover Freddie Mac’s losses on bad mortgages without repurchasing the debt, the company said.
Also on Aug. 7, Freddie Mac, which has taken $50.7 billion of capital under a U.S. lifeline since being seized by regulators in September, reported its first profit in two years and said that it wouldn’t seek more U.S. Treasury aid.
Brad German, a Freddie Mac spokesman, declined to comment today. Brian Faith, a spokesman for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac’s Washington-based rival, said last week his company hasn’t done business with Taylor Bean "for some time."
The Next Fannie Mae
Ginnie Mae and FHA are becoming $1 trillion subprime guarantors.
Much to their dismay, Americans learned last year that they "owned" Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Well, meet their cousin, Ginnie Mae or the Government National Mortgage Association, which will soon join them as a trillion-dollar packager of subprime mortgages. Taxpayers own Ginnie too. Only last week, Ginnie announced that it issued a monthly record of $43 billion in mortgage-backed securities in June. Ginnie Mae President Joseph Murin sounded almost giddy as he cheered this "phenomenal growth." Ginnie Mae’s mortgage exposure is expected to top $1 trillion by the end of next year—or far more than double the dollar amount of 2007. Earlier this summer, Reuters quoted Anthony Medici of the Housing Department’s Inspector General’s office as saying, "Who would have predicted that Ginnie Mae and Fannie Mae would have swapped positions" in loan volume?
Ginnie’s mission is to bundle, guarantee and then sell mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration, which is Uncle Sam’s home mortgage shop. Ginnie’s growth is a by-product of the FHA’s spectacular growth. The FHA now insures $560 billion of mortgages—quadruple the amount in 2006. Among the FHA, Ginnie, Fannie and Freddie, nearly nine of every 10 new mortgages in America now carry a federal taxpayer guarantee. Herein lies the problem. The FHA’s standard insurance program today is notoriously lax. It backs low downpayment loans, to buyers who often have below-average to poor credit ratings, and with almost no oversight to protect against fraud. Sound familiar? This is called subprime lending—the same financial roulette that busted Fannie, Freddie and large mortgage houses like Countrywide Financial.
On June 18, HUD’s Inspector General issued a scathing report on the FHA’s lax insurance practices. It found that the FHA’s default rate has grown to 7%, which is about double the level considered safe and sound for lenders, and that 13% of these loans are delinquent by more than 30 days. The FHA’s reserve fund was found to have fallen in half, to 3% from 6.4% in 2007—meaning it now has a 33 to 1 leverage ratio, which is into Bear Stearns territory. The IG says the FHA may need a "Congressional appropriation intervention to make up the shortfall."
The IG also fears that the recent "surge in FHA loans is likely to overtax the oversight resources of the FHA, making careful and comprehensive lender monitoring difficult." And it warned that the growth in FHA mortgage volume could make the program "vulnerable to exploitation by fraud schemes . . . that undercut the integrity of the program." The 19-page IG report includes a horror show of recent fraud cases. If housing values continue to slide and 10% of FHA loans end up in default, taxpayers will be on the hook for another $50 to $60 billion of mortgage losses.
Only last week, Taylor Bean, the FHA’s third largest mortgage originator in June with $17 billion in loans this year, announced it is terminating operations after the FHA barred the mortgage lender from participating in its insurance program. The feds alleged that Taylor Bean had "misrepresented" its relationship with an auditor and had "irregular transactions that raised concerns of fraud."
Is anyone on Capitol Hill or the White House paying attention? Evidently not, because on both sides of Pennsylvania Avenue policy makers are busy giving the FHA even more business while easing its already loosy-goosy underwriting standards. A few weeks ago a House committee approved legislation to keep the FHA’s loan limit in high-income states like California at $729,750. We wonder how many first-time home buyers purchase a $725,000 home. The Members must have missed the IG’s warning that higher loan limits may mean "much greater losses by FHA" and will make fraudsters "much more attracted to the product."
In the wake of the mortgage meltdown, most private lenders have reverted to the traditional down payment rule of 10% or 20%. Housing experts agree that a high down payment is the best protection against default and foreclosure because it means the owner has something to lose by walking away. Meanwhile, at the FHA, the down payment requirement remains a mere 3.5%. Other policies—such as allowing the buyer to finance closing costs and use the homebuyer tax credit to cover costs—can drive the down payment to below 2%.
Then there is the booming refinancing program that Congress has approved to move into the FHA hundreds of thousands of borrowers who can’t pay their mortgage, including many with subprime and other exotic loans. HUD just announced that starting this week the FHA will refinance troubled mortgages by reducing up to 30% of the principal under the Home Affordable Modification Program. This program is intended to reduce foreclosures, but someone has to pick up the multibillion-dollar cost of the 30% loan forgiveness. That will be taxpayers.
In some cases, these owners are so overdue in their payments, and housing prices have fallen so dramatically, that the borrowers have a negative 25% equity in the home and they are still eligible for an FHA refi. We also know from other government and private loan modification programs that a borrower who has defaulted on the mortgage once is at very high risk (25%-50%) of defaulting again.
All of which means that the FHA and Ginnie Mae could well be the next Fannie and Freddie. While Fan and Fred carried "implicit" federal guarantees, the FHA and Ginnie carry the explicit full faith and credit of the U.S. government.
We’ve long argued that Congress has a fiduciary duty to secure the safety and soundness of FHA through common sense reforms. Eliminate the 100% guarantee on FHA loans, so lenders have a greater financial incentive to insure the soundness of the loan; adopt the private sector convention of a 10% down payment, which would reduce foreclosures; and stop putting subprime loans that should have never been made in the first place on the federal balance sheet. The housing lobby, which gets rich off FHA insurance, has long blocked these due-diligence reforms, saying there’s no threat to taxpayers. That’s what they also said about Fan and Fred—$400 billion ago.
Lawmakers Urged to Raise Nation's Debt Limit
U.S. lawmakers, already under pressure to move controversial health-care legislation and a revamp of the financial system, were saddled Friday with the unpopular task of quickly increasing the maximum amount of money the federal government can borrow. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, in a letter to sent to top U.S. lawmakers on Friday, asked Congress to move "as soon as possible" to increase the nation's statutory debt limit. The Treasury estimates that the $12.1 trillion current limit could be reached as soon as mid-October, Mr. Geithner wrote.
"It is critically important that Congress act before the limit is reached so that citizens and investors here and around the world can remain confident that the United States will always meet its obligations," Mr. Geithner said in the letter. A spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) said Senate Democratic leaders would work with the Treasury Department on debt limit legislation, but that they have yet to decide on a final form for the measure.
One issue that will need to be decided is how much of an increase is needed. Mr. Geithner didn't offer a specific figure in his letter to lawmakers. A Treasury official said Monday that the debt increase is due to the deterioration in the economy and not necessarily attributable to spending on stimulus programs or the bailout of the financial system. "The president has made it clear that as soon as recovery is firmly established we will bring our fiscal deficit down to a level that is sustainable in the long term," the official said.
The request highlights the difficulty facing the Obama administration and Congress as they take on an ambitious legislative agenda while also seeking to improve the nation's fiscal position amidst a still-troubled economy. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office said last week that the federal government's budget deficit is on track to reach a record high of $1.8 trillion for fiscal 2009, after reaching $1.3 trillion through the first ten months of the fiscal year.
If Congress agrees to the Treasury's request it would mark the second increase in the debt ceiling this year. The economic stimulus package passed by Congress earlier this year increased the debt ceiling by $789 billion to $12.1 trillion. As of Aug. 7, the federal debt outstanding totaled roughly $11.7 trillion. Congressional Republicans appear ready to use a vote on whether to raise the debt ceiling to contrast their approach on economic issues with Democrats and argue that the Obama administration's agenda on health care and climate change would further exacerbate the country's fiscal challenges.
"It's a clear that we've got a sign that we've got a federal government that is out of control from the fiscal standpoint," said Rep. Tom Price (R., Ga.), who leads the conservative Republican Study Committee in the House. "I don't see how anyone can vote in favor of an increase in the debt ceiling and say they're doing it is a responsible way." Robert Bixby, executive director of budget watchdog the Concord Coalition, said the debt ceiling has little practical application in curtailing government spending. "You can't not raise it, because if you do, the Treasury in effect would be defaulting on the debt, which would be crazy," Mr. Bixby said. "It doesn't really provide a whole lot of restraint."
Other deficit reduction advocates say that that the proposed increase in the debt ceiling provides an opportunity for Congress and the president to address the country's long-term fiscal challenges. Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, in an interview said "the time is now" for lawmakers to tackle [the] issue. "If we were doing this right, it would be tied to a requirement that Congress and the president work together to put some kind of budget deal out there," Ms. MacGuineas said.
The End of the Peak Credit Era: 3 Quarters of Contracting Consumer Debt. Credit Card debt Contracts on a Year over Year Basis for First Time Ever
There is a small silver lining in the unemployment report released on Friday. The positive side was the amount of people being fired slowed down in July (if you can call an annual rate of 3 million layoffs positive). However, there is still a major reluctance for firms to hire. We still have 26,000,000 unemployed and underemployed Americans in the country. Many have been relying on the plastic support of credit cards to ease the pain of the deep recession. Yet many are finding out that they are unable to have access to the once abundant lines of credit. It may be the case that we have witnessed peak consumer debt.Even though some 8 million credit cards were yanked earlier in the year, many consumers are simply embracing a more frugal lifestyle. The contraction is occurring from both sides in that consumers are being more watchful on what they spend while lenders are actually vetting more carefully who they give credit to. The latest consumer credit report from the Federal Reserve shows that the trend in less consumption is still going strong:
This is now the third consecutive quarter of credit contracting. Keep in mind this is debt that is already used up. These were purchases of flat screen televisions, food, vacations, and many items that have already been used up. The lines of credit are being pulled back at the same time. Credit card companies are hiking up minimum payments and charging higher rates to make up for the rising amount of defaults occurring in the country and they are also squeezing their prime credit borrowers. The last option may be counterproductive in the long-term. Now you might look at this contraction and think that it is no big deal. It is an enormous deal. This is the first time on record that consumer debt has contracted on a year over year basis:
Some 40 years of data and not once has consumer debt pulled back on an annual basis. It is a rather fascinating phenomenon when you pause to contemplate the massive unrelenting growth in debt over the past four decades. Americans are now having to deal with less access to cheap debt. And that is probably an important caveat to note. The days of 0 percent credit cards and no money down loans for homes are probably long gone. We see that Fannie Mae has posted a loss of over $10 billion for the second quarter and these are the more “safer” loans in the market. With unemployment this high, many people were using their credit card as a bridge loan to get through this tough patch of time.
Much of the drain that is occurring is also because we have never seen so many people unemployed for such a long time:
*Source: Calculated Risk
This is a troubling sign and has also increased the amount of bankruptcies that we are seeing. Peak debt was bound to happen at some point in time. The massive 30 year housing bubble was simply unsustainable. Spending more than you earn will eventually catch up with you. The U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve are focused on saving the banks and Wall Street and the rest of Americans will need to fend for themselves. You would think with all this new found liquidity that banks would somehow pass it on to the average consumer. Unfortunately that is the line they sold to the public to get the bailouts passed. Remember all that talk about credit being the lifeblood of the economy? Apparently not since companies are chopping back credit for regular consumers. What was pushed through was essentially last minute expensive measures to ensure the banking syndicate remained in place. The bailouts were to fix their balance sheets. Now with taxpayer money in hand, they are squeezing the vice around the actual taxpayer that has saved them from failing. It is really a perverse system when you think about.
The average credit card rate has all shot up during this time when liquidity was being made abundant to 14.43 percent. With rising unemployment, this is still a major problem. You might be asking why did the unemployment rate drop to 9.4% when 247,000 people lost their job last month. Simply put, people left the labor force:
*Source: Econompicdata
And with this combined, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that even with tougher bankruptcy regulations, more people are filing for bankruptcy:
Although it is better news that the layoff number wasn’t so grim, the fact that many left the labor force and companies are not hiring should cause you to pause as to what really constitutes a recovery. The peak credit era is over and we will need to remake our economy into a completely different machine.
Where did that bank bailout go? Watchdogs aren't sure
Although hundreds of well-trained eyes are watching over the $700 billion that Congress last year decided to spend bailing out the nation's financial sector, it's still difficult to answer some of the most basic questions about where the money went.
Despite a new oversight panel, a new special inspector general, the existing Government Accountability Office and eight other inspectors general, those charged with minding the store say they don't have all the weapons they need. Ten months into the Troubled Asset Relief Program, some members of Congress say that some oversight of bailout dollars has been so lacking that it's essentially worthless."TARP has become a program in which taxpayers are not being told what most of the TARP recipients are doing with their money, have still not been told how much their substantial investments are worth, and will not be told the full details of how their money is being invested," a special inspector general over the program reported last month. The "very credibility" of the program is at stake, it said.
Access and openness have improved in recent months, watchdogs say, but the program still has a way to go before it's truly transparent.
For its part, the Treasury Department said it's fully committed to transparency, and that it's taken unprecedented steps to report the status of TARP to the public. It regularly posts information on which banks have received money, as well as details about each of those transactions. Further, Treasury said, it doesn't agree with all of its watchdogs' recommendations, which it said could hamper the program's effectiveness.
TARP was passed in the midst of last fall's financial meltdown as a way to keep American banks from falling deeper into the abyss.
The program was controversial from the start. Its supporters say it's helped spark bank lending in the country, but critics say it's unfairly rewarded the big banks and Wall Street firms that pushed the economy to the brink.
The program also has undergone a major transformation. When the Bush administration first went to Congress for the money, TARP's main purpose was to buy up hundreds of billions of dollars in bad mortgages and so-called mortgage-backed securities that were bought and sold on Wall Street.
Today, TARP consists of 12 programs that sent those hundreds of billions of dollars to big banks, but it's also bailed out auto companies, auto suppliers, individuals delinquent on their mortgages, small businesses and American International Group, the big insurance company.
The watchdogs now must oversee the maze that TARP has become.
Just because a lot of people are watching, however, doesn't mean they get everything they want to see.
One of the most prominent watchdogs is Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard Law School professor who chairs a TARP oversight panel created by Congress.
Her panel has released 10 major reports that examine TARP's plans and policies, finding that much of the work by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve has been opaque, with unclear or contradictory goals.
One report took Treasury to task for vastly undervaluing more than $250 billion in transactions with the country's major banks, and another suggested several ways to revamp federal regulation over the financial sector. Other reports have criticized the Treasury for its initial defensiveness in opening its books.
Despite its mandate, however, the panel doesn't have subpoena power. That means it can ask, but can't compel, officials from Treasury, the Federal Reserve or the nation's banks to testify.
Henry Paulson, the Treasury secretary under former President George W. Bush, repeatedly stiff-armed the panel. Timothy Geithner, the current secretary, has been more open, but so far has testified just once before Warren's group. Geithner is scheduled to appear again in September, and has agreed to do so quarterly, and two other senior Treasury officials also have appeared.
The relative lack of testimony from top officials, however, is one reason why critics of Warren's panel think it hasn't delivered on its promise.
In June, in an otherwise mundane congressional hearing, Republican Rep. Kevin Brady of Texas surprised Warren with an aggressive critique of the panel, saying it's failed to help taxpayers understand what Treasury is doing with the billions at its disposal.
"There's been very little value that the panel has brought to this issue or even insight on how these bailout dollars have been used," he said. "I frankly believe at this point, given the reports that we've seen again with little value, I think the panel needs to be abolished."
Warren defended the panel's work, saying the lack of subpoena power means we "only have the capacity to invite" witnesses.
"So you asked Secretary Paulson in the first month of existence?" Brady asked.
"I believe we asked him repeatedly," Warren said. "We asked him in our first month, in our second month, in our third month."
Warren said she took the criticism seriously, dropping by Brady's congressional office as soon as the hearing adjourned. The two had never met before, she said, and "I was really surprised," by his comments.
"He said he felt frustrated," she said. "He wanted us to be even blunter" in the panel's reports.
Brady amplified his comments in an interview last month, saying that some of the panel's work seems like a "PR ploy" and that "the moment has passed" for Warren's group to play the role Congress envisioned.
His feelings have been partially echoed by two other members of the panel, Rep. Jeb Hensarling of Texas and former Sen. John E. Sununu of New Hampshire, both Republicans appointed by congressional GOP leaders (the other three members were appointed by Democrats).
Both have accused the panel of mission creep — of straying from the central goal of determining exactly how, and how well, Treasury is doing its job.
Hensarling said that "taxpayers have not received answers as to whether the TARP program works, how decisions are being made or what the banks are doing with the taxpayers' money." While he praises the "very smart people on the panel," he said too many questions have been left unexplored.
He acknowledges that the lack of subpoena power makes things tough. "But even if we had it, I'm not sure we would have used it," said Hensarling, who's pushing to abolish TARP.
The other primary watchdog is Neil Barofsky, a special inspector general named in November by Bush specifically to track TARP funds. His office does have subpoena power, and a growing staff that's expected ultimately to have 160 people pursuing audits and criminal investigations.
It's also made a series of recommendations to the Treasury, asking that it do more to reveal how TARP money is being spent. Treasury has adopted some of its recommendations, but rejected others — including one of the most important: Giving taxpayers precise details on how TARP funds have been used by banks.
The recommendation involves one of the most visible aspects of TARP: investing $218 billion in 650 banks, helping them to strengthen their balance sheets and boost lending to American businesses and homeowners.
Barofsky's office has long advocated that the Treasury require banks to detail how the TARP money they've received has been used. The department has refused, saying that once an investment is made in a big bank, it's not possible to track how it's used.
Barofsky's office rejected that assertion, and did its own survey of 360 institutions, finding that most could say how they'd used the money.
"Treasury's reasons for refusing to adopt this recommendation have been squarely refuted by" the inspector general, his office reported to Congress.
California Won't Even Accept Its Own IOUs
California governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger wants everyone to treat his state's IOU's like money – from the citizens and businesses receiving these scraps of paper in lieu of cash, to the financial institutions who are supposed to swap them for legal tender. The problem is that the state government, itself will not accept its own IOU's as payment for debts – at least not until their "maturity date" in October. In the meantime, small-business owners like Nancy Baird received a $27,000 IOU from the state government for supplying garments to a state-run youth camp, but after two banks refused to redeem her IOU, was forced to pay cash out of her own pocket for the sales tax on the transaction.
She and numerous other small-business operators have filed a class-action suit against the state alleging the state has violated both the Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments. The plaintiffs seek full payment for what they are owed by the state – with interest. Even if the state survives this challenge, the obvious question to ask is what will change for the state between now – when it claims it can't cover all its own IOU's – and October? The answer is: things will be a lot worse. Virtually every state in the U.S. is being to forced to make negative revisions to their budgets every couple of months to adjust to the most rapid plunge in state revenues in history.
Thus, by the time October rolls around, the state's financial picture will have deteriorated significantly at the same time it is supposed to produce several billion dollars to redeem all its IOU's. The only "plan" the state has is to try to borrow more money between now and then. In other words, the California government's state finances are now a Ponzi-scheme – where they have to borrow ever-larger amounts of money to pay off those at the front of the queue to collect their debts.
This is nothing new. It was the U.S. federal government which started Ponzi-scheme financing as a permanent means of financing a nation. To make its balance sheet look much, much better, the federal government does not carry its future obligations on its own books – like every business in the United States is required to do by law. Instead, the U.S. government calls these future obligations "unfunded liabilities" - and simply pretends they do not exist. Then when Americans actually make claims against these unfunded liabilities (now somewhere in excess of $70 trillion), these expenses are a "surprise" to the two-party dictatorship in power. Worse than that, the federal government has plundered trillions of dollars from its own Social Security "trust fund". Clearly, "federal government trust fund" is an oxymoron.
As a result, the United States is hopelessly insolvent. Merely transferring its own obligations officially onto its books would instantly bankrupt the U.S. - as it is totally incapable of paying the interest on those obligations. The only option other than immediate default would be to instantly descend into hyperinflation, since it would be totally cut off all international credit (no one will lend to someone who can't even pay interest on its debt).
The truth, of course, is that the U.S. is already incapable of paying the interest on its humongous debts – even through borrowing. As I wrote yesterday (see "Federal Reserve SECRETLY buying Treasuries at auctions"), the U.S. government is trying to hide the fact that it is already forced to print money just to pay interest on its debts by "buying" its own Treasuries indirectly, through intermediaries. What transforms this from a "national crisis" to simply being "totally screwed" is that state and local governments saw how "well" the federal government was doing with its Ponzi-scheme accounting and decided to copy it. They too took their future obligations for pension and health care benefits off their books, et voila, all these governments were instantly much richer.
We all know what politicians do when they feel rich: they spend lots of money to buy votes. In this case, the "easiest" way for U.S. state and local governments to buy votes was to fatten up health and pension benefits for its own workers – since it didn't need to put any of those lavish promises onto its books, thanks to the magic of U.S. Ponzi-scheme accounting. Now, claims are starting to be made on those benefits at exactly the same time that every level of government in the United States is facing their worst financial crisis in history.
In another news item released a couple of days later, South Carolina's municipal leaders descended onto the state government pleading for state funds to bail them all out of their "unfunded liabilities" nightmares. They claim their plight is so desperate that they are nearly at the point of having to choose between paying police officers and firefighters to perform their duties or pay the benefits the promised to retired police and firefighters.
This brings us back to California's own fiscal meltdown. Even with issuing his bogus IOU's and borrowing every penny he could, Schwarzenegger is attempting to squeeze billions of dollars out of local governments to essentially force them to pay for his fiscal irresponsibility. Is there any reason to believe that California's local governments are at least in as desperate a crisis as South Carolina's local governments? How would those South Carolina municipal leaders react if they arrived at the state capital seeking hand-outs, and instead were told that billions would be squeezed out of their revenues to try to close the state's budget-gap?
Given the severe implosion of California's economy, it is only logical to assume their local funding crises are even worse than those in South Carolina. Thus, as we pass the mid-point of summer, and autumn approaches, we find that California has still done nothing to solve its own fiscal crisis. Instead, it has only delayed financial Armageddon for a few months, while simultaneously ensuring that most of California's local governments face financial crises at least as bad as those of the state government.
Pace of Job Losses Sets Stage for Quick Labor-Market Rebound
The rapid pace at which businesses shed jobs during the recession comes with a flip side: Workers will need to be hired back quickly as the economy improves. So deep have companies cut jobs that Friday's employment report, which showed that the U.S. economy lost a quarter-million jobs in July, was seen as a relief. Since the recession began in December 2007, U.S. payrolls have fallen by 6.7 million, according to the Labor Department. That's a 4.8% decline, a level not seen since the late 1940s.
"Firms were unusually aggressive in cutting costs and cutting employment," said James O'Sullivan, an economist with UBS. "The flip side of that remains to be seen, but it could mean that companies will be quicker to bring back people because they were more aggressive about getting rid of them." Businesses say they are running lean. Philadelphia staffing and outsourcing company CDI Corp. has seen demand for its services fall sharply in response to the recession. Its engineering services business, for example, has seen a 22% drop-off, said Chief Executive Roger Ballou. But the company has cut staff deeply enough that it doesn't have many idle hands, and Mr. Ballou said that's true at CDI's customers as well.
"I'm unaware of any firm out there today that has lots and lots of people sitting on the bench, waiting for business to come back," said Mr. Ballou. As a result, he thinks jobs will come back more quickly as the economy recovers than they did in 2001. Milwaukee-based Wisconsin Steel & Tube Corp., which sells precut steel bars and tubes to manufacturers and machine tool shops, has seen business pick up recently as customers move to replenish inventories and is moving to add workers.
"We're a lean company -- we don't have a VP of this and a VP of that," said company President Joseph Teich. "We got rid of some temporary workers and some other people, but now we do anticipate hiring people." Last month, the company brought in a salesman that a competitor had let go, and it will likely hire two shop workers this month. To be sure, even as more companies begin to hire as the economy recovers, it could take years before payrolls reach their prerecession level. With Americans spending more cautiously in response to the massive losses in wealth associated with this recession, some jobs may simply never come back.
"We are going through an important transition in the U.S. economy away from consumer discretionary and housing expenditures towards more exports and research and development," said Northern Trust economist Paul Kasriel. "It's going to take a lot of time for workers to retrain and get skills in those areas." Moreover, with manufacturers continuing to make strides at wringing more production out of fewer workers, even as demand picks up, they may be able to hold off on hiring. Manufacturers began cutting workers in 1998, long before the 2001 recession started, and they kept cutting them through the subsequent recovery and into the current downturn.
And a quick labor-market recovery would be a break from what has happened in recent downturns. After the brief 2001 recession ended, the economy continued to shed jobs for nearly two years, and after the 1990-91 recession, jobs growth sputtered. The two experiences led economists to conclude that there had been a shift in the behavior of the job market, which in the past recovered quickly after recessions. That said, one thing different about this recession -- and one more reason the job market may come back more quickly than in the downturns of 2001 and 1990-91 -- is that so many of the job losses have been at the service-related companies that have come to dominate U.S employment.
Since the recession began, 3.3 million service-sector jobs have been lost, a 2.9% decline that is the largest in data going back to 1939. In comparison, the previous two recessions each saw service-sector jobs fall by 0.5%. Many service-related firms may have a more pressing need than manufacturers to rehire workers as demand comes back.
"In our industry, staffing is driven strictly by the number of guests we have to take care of," said Peggy Mosley, owner of the Groveland Hotel in Groveland, Calif. "In the hospitality business, that's where we have to excel." With 30 employees, Ms. Mosley's hotel, near the northern entrance to Yosemite National Park, is at its highest staffing level in 19 years of business. More Americans are vacationing closer to home, she said, and because she doesn't cater to business travelers, she hasn't seen the drops in occupancy many of her counterparts across the country have seen. In July, there were 140,000 fewer hotel, motel and other accommodation workers than a year earlier.
But the biggest reason jobs might bounce back quicker from this downturn than the past two recessions, said Comerica Bank economist Dana Johnson, is that the economy looks likely to see a much bigger bounce as it recovers. Gross domestic product -- the value of all goods and services produced by the economy -- has fallen by 3.9% since economic output peaked last year, marking the steepest decline since the end of World War II. In contrast, the 2001 and 1990-91 recessions were among the shallowest on record.
History says that given the depth of the downturn, GDP should grow at a 6% to 8% rate over the next year, according to Mr. Johnson. But because of the financial stress that has come with this recession, he expects it will grow at a 4% rate. "What people forget is that a deeper recession has consequences," Mr. Johnson said. "There is a considerable relationship between the depth of recessions and subsequent recoveries."
How the White House’s Deal With Big Pharma Undermines Democracy
by Robert Reich
I’m a strong supporter of universal health insurance, and a fan of the Obama administration. But I’m appalled by the deal the White House has made with the pharmaceutical industry’s lobbying arm to buy their support. Last week, after being reported in the Los Angeles Times, the White House confirmed it has promised Big Pharma that any healthcare legislation will bar the government from using its huge purchasing power to negotiate lower drug prices. That’s basically the same deal George W. Bush struck in getting the Medicare drug benefit, and it’s proven a bonanza for the drug industry.
A continuation will be an even larger bonanza, given all the Boomers who will be enrolling in Medicare over the next decade. And it will be a gold mine if the deal extends to Medicaid, which will be expanded under most versions of the healthcare bills now emerging from Congress, and to any public option that might be included. (We don’t know how far the deal extends beyond Medicare because its details haven’t been made public.)
Let me remind you: Any bonanza for the drug industry means higher health-care costs for the rest of us, which is one reason why critics of the emerging healthcare plans, including the Congressional Budget Office, are so worried about their failure to adequately stem future healthcare costs. To be sure, as part of its deal with the White House, Big Pharma apparently has promised to cut future drug costs by $80 billion. But neither the industry nor the White House nor any congressional committee has announced exactly where the $80 billion in savings will show up nor how this portion of the deal will be enforced. In any event, you can bet that the bonanza Big Pharma will reap far exceeds $80 billion. Otherwise, why would it have agreed?
In return, Big Pharma isn’t just supporting universal health care. It’s also spending a lots of money on TV and radio advertising in support. Sunday’s New York Times reports that Big Pharma has budgeted $150 million for TV ads promoting universal health insurance, starting this August (that’s more money than John McCain spent on TV advertising in last year’s presidential campaign), after having already spent a bundle through advocacy groups like Healthy Economies Now and Families USA.
I want universal health insurance. And having had a front-row seat in 1994 when Big Pharma and the rest of the health-industry complex went to battle against it, I can tell you first hand how big and effective the onslaught can be. So I appreciate Big Pharma’s support this time around, and I like it that the industry is doing the reverse of what it did last time, and airing ads to persuade the public of the rightness of the White House’s effort.
But I also care about democracy, and the deal between Big Pharma and the White House frankly worries me. It’s bad enough when industry lobbyists extract concessions from members of Congress, which happens all the time. But when an industry gets secret concessions out of the White House in return for a promise to lend the industry’s support to a key piece of legislation, we’re in big trouble. That’s called extortion: An industry is using its capacity to threaten or prevent legislation as a means of altering that legislation for its own benefit. And it’s doing so at the highest reaches of our government, in the office of the President.
When the industry support comes with an industry-sponsored ad campaign in favor of that legislation, the threat to democracy is even greater. Citizens end up paying for advertisements designed to persuade them that the legislation is in their interest. In this case, those payments come in the form of drug prices that will be higher than otherwise, stretching years into the future. I don’t want to be puritanical about all this. Politics is a rough game in which means and ends often get mixed and melded. Perhaps the White House deal with Big Pharma is a necessary step to get anything resembling universal health insurance. But if that’s the case, our democracy is in terrible shape.
How soon until big industries and their Washington lobbyists have become so politically powerful that secret WhiteHouse-industry deals like this are prerequisites to any important legislation? When will it become standard practice that such deals come with hundreds of millions of dollars of industry-sponsored TV advertising designed to persuade the public that the legislation is in the public’s interest? (Any Democrats and progressives who might be reading this should ask themselves how they’ll feel when a Republican White House cuts such deals to advance its own legislative priorities.) We’re on a precarious road — and wherever it leads, it’s not toward democracy.
Republicans Propagating Falsehoods in Attacks on Health-Care Reform
As a columnist who regularly dishes out sharp criticism, I try not to question the motives of people with whom I don't agree. Today, I'm going to step over that line. The recent attacks by Republican leaders and their ideological fellow-travelers on the effort to reform the health-care system have been so misleading, so disingenuous, that they could only spring from a cynical effort to gain partisan political advantage. By poisoning the political well, they've given up any pretense of being the loyal opposition. They've become political terrorists, willing to say or do anything to prevent the country from reaching a consensus on one of its most serious domestic problems.
There are lots of valid criticisms that can be made against the health reform plans moving through Congress -- I've made a few myself. But there is no credible way to look at what has been proposed by the president or any congressional committee and conclude that these will result in a government takeover of the health-care system. That is a flat-out lie whose only purpose is to scare the public and stop political conversation. Under any plan likely to emerge from Congress, the vast majority of Americans who are not old or poor will continue to buy health insurance from private companies, continue to get their health care from doctors in private practice and continue to be treated at privately owned hospitals.
The centerpiece of all the plans is a new health insurance exchange set up by the government where individuals, small businesses and eventually larger businesses will be able to purchase insurance from private insurers at lower rates than are now generally available under rules that require insurers to offer coverage to anyone regardless of health condition. Low-income workers buying insurance through the exchange -- along with their employers -- would be eligible for government subsidies. While the government will take a more active role in regulating the insurance market and increase its spending for health care, that hardly amounts to the kind of government-run system that critics conjure up when they trot out that oh-so-clever line about the Department of Motor Vehicles being in charge of your colonoscopy.
There is still a vigorous debate as to whether one of the insurance options offered through those exchanges would be a government-run insurance company of some sort. There are now less-than-even odds that such a public option will survive in the Senate, while even House leaders have agreed that the public plan won't be able to piggy-back on Medicare.
So the probability that a public-run insurance plan is about to drive every private insurer out of business -- the Republican nightmare scenario -- is approximately zero. By now, you've probably also heard that health reform will cost taxpayers at least a trillion dollars. Another lie. First of all, that's not a trillion every year, as most people assume -- it's a trillion over 10 years, which is the silly way that people in Washington talk about federal budgets. On an annual basis, that translates to about $140 billion, when things are up and running.
Even that, however, grossly overstates the net cost to the government of providing universal coverage. Other parts of the reform plan would result in offsetting savings for Medicare: reductions in unnecessary subsidies to private insurers, in annual increases in payments rates for doctors and in payments to hospitals for providing free care to the uninsured. The net increase in government spending for health care would likely be about $100 billion a year, a one-time increase equal to less than 1 percent of a national income that grows at an average rate of 2.5 percent every year. The Republican lies about the economics of health reform are also heavily laced with hypocrisy.
While holding themselves out as paragons of fiscal rectitude, Republicans grandstand against just about every idea to reduce the amount of health care people consume or the prices paid to health-care providers -- the only two ways I can think of to credibly bring health spending under control. When Democrats, for example, propose to fund research to give doctors, patients and health plans better information on what works and what doesn't, Republicans sense a sinister plot to have the government decide what treatments you will get. By the same wacko-logic, a proposal that Medicare pay for counseling on end-of-life care is transformed into a secret plan for mass euthanasia of the elderly.
Government negotiation on drug prices? The end of medical innovation as we know it, according to the GOP's Dr. No. Reduce Medicare payments to overpriced specialists and inefficient hospitals? The first step on the slippery slope toward rationing. Can there be anyone more two-faced than the Republican leaders who in one breath rail against the evils of government-run health care and in another propose a government-subsidized high-risk pool for people with chronic illness, government-subsidized community health centers for the uninsured, and opening up Medicare to people at age 55?
Health reform is a test of whether this country can function once again as a civil society -- whether we can trust ourselves to embrace the big, important changes that require everyone to give up something in order to make everyone better off. Republican leaders are eager to see us fail that test. We need to show them that no matter how many lies they tell or how many scare tactics they concoct, Americans will come together and get this done. If health reform is to be anyone's Waterloo, let it be theirs.
Lawmakers Rethink Town Halls
The health-care debate was supposed to play out at rallies and inside gymnasiums when lawmakers headed home for the August recess. But after a series of contentious town-hall meetings, some Democratic lawmakers are thinking twice about holding large public gatherings. Instead, they are opting for smaller sessions, holding meetings by phone or inviting constituents for one-on-one office hours. Democrats have accused Republicans of manufacturing the opposition by organizing groups to attend the events and encouraging disruptive behavior. Republican organizers say the unrest reflects genuine anger about the proposed health-care changes.
"Democrats may think that attacking or ignoring this growing chorus of Americans is a smart strategy, but they are obviously forgetting that these concerned citizens are voters as well," said Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP's campaign arm.
Rick Scott, who leads Conservatives for Patients' Rights, a group that has helped publicize the local meetings, said: "The polls reveal the real picture of what is happening across the country -- people are genuinely concerned, some are genuinely angry, and they are expressing themselves." The Senate on Friday headed home for a monthlong break after progress stalled on passing sweeping health-care legislation. House members, whose break started a week ago, have been hit with a flood of inquiries about the legislation since they arrived home. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D., Ariz.) on Thursday canceled her public schedule for the day after a "Chat with Ann" session at a Safeway grocery store in Holbrook, Ariz., turned rowdy.
A video of the meeting showed a woman shouting, "You don't appreciate our frustration!" Ms. Kirkpatrick cut the session short after 15 minutes and headed to her car, trailed by a jeer of "What a nitwit!" Rep. Tim Bishop (D., N.Y.) stopped holding town-hall meetings after a June event. Footage of the meeting showed participants screaming questions at Mr. Bishop, then repeatedly shouting him down when he tried to respond. At times, Mr. Bishop would begin to respond to a question and a participant would yell, "Answer the question!" At one point Mr. Bishop yelled back, "I'm trying to!"
Police were summoned as several dozen protesters followed Mr. Bishop to his car. Now Mr. Bishop, who has held 100 town-hall meetings during his tenure, has just one scheduled for the August recess, and his office is wrestling with how to ensure it will be civil and orderly. "I'm seeing the same clips everyone else is of these meetings that are turning into near-riots," said Jon Schneider, Mr. Bishop's district director. "Obviously we don't want that to happen." He added that the congressman is talking to voters in other ways.
Rep. Brian Baird (D., Wash.) also said the raucous nature of recent meetings about health care caused him to steer away from the events, if only because they aren't productive when so many people are shouting. "I'm not a coward, but neither am I a fool," said Mr. Baird. "There is a real concern right now about this nationwide campaign of intimidation and disruption that I think is troubling," he said. "It's getting dangerous." Several lawmakers said they aren't canceling large, public events that have already been planned.
Some Democrats who have seen the sharpest attacks say that has made them more determined not to back away from public meetings. Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D., Texas), who was recently heckled over health care at a supermarket, said he would attend a veterans-center opening, a community-health event and a meeting with Austin public school teachers in coming days. "The apparent focus was to kind of create this impression that you could run me [and] supporters of this out of Dodge," he said. "That's not what is going to happen."
Health care's big money wasters
Down the drain: $1.2 trillion.That's half of the $2.2 trillion the United States spends on health care each year, according to the most recent data from accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers' Health Research Institute. What counts as waste? The report identified 16 different areas in which health care dollars are squandered. But in talking to doctors, nurses, hospital groups and patient advocacy groups, six areas totaling nearly $500 billion stood out as issues to be dealt with in the health care reform debate.
Too many tests
Doctors ordering tests or procedures not based on need but concern over liability or increasing their income is the biggest waste of health care dollars, costing the system at least $210 billion a year, according to the report. The problem is called "defensive medicine." "Sometimes the motivation is to avoid malpractice suits, or to make more money because they are compensated more for doing more," said Dr. Arthur Garson, provost of the University of Virginia and former dean of its medical school. "Many are also convinced that doing more tests is the right thing to do.""But any money that is spent on a patient that doesn't improve the outcome is a waste," said Garson. Some conservatives have suggested that capping malpractice awards would help solve the problem. President Obama doesn't agree; instead, his reform proposal encourages doctors to practice "evidence-based" guidelines as a way to scale back on unnecessary tests.
Those annoying claim forms
Inefficient claims processing is the second-biggest area of wasteful expenditure, costing as much as $210 billion annually, the PricewaterhouseCoopers report said. "We spend a lot of time and money trying to get paid by insurers," said Dr. Terry McGenney, a Kansas City, Mo.-based family physician. "Every insurance company has its own forms," McGenney said. "Some practices spend 40% of their revenue filling out paperwork that has nothing to do with patient care. So much of this could be automated."
Dr. Jason Dees, a family doctor in a private practice based in New Albany, Miss., said his office often resubmits claims that have been "magically denied." "That adds to our administrative fees, extends the payment cycle and hurts our cash flow," he said. Dees also spends a lot of time getting "pre-certification" from insurers to approve higher-priced procedures such as MRIs. "We're already operating on paper-thin margins and this takes times away from our patients," he said.
Susan Pisano, spokeswoman for America's Health Insurance Plans, said "hundreds of billions" of dollars can be saved by standardizing procedures and using technology -- something the White House has mentioned as a key to health care reform. "For that to happen, we need the technology," she said. "Doctors and hospitals must adopt the technology, and we have to develop rules for exchanging of information between doctors, hospitals and health plans." Pisano said the industry is launching a pilot program later this year that will allow physicians to communicate with all health plans using a standardized process.
Using the ER as a clinic
More insured and uninsured consumers are getting their primary care in emergency rooms, wasting $14 billion every year in health care spending. "This is an inappropriate use of the ER," said Dee Swanson, president of the American Academy of Nurse Practitioners. "You don't go to the ER for strep throat." Since emergency rooms are legally obligated to treat all patients, Swanson said providers ultimately find ways to pass on the cost for treating the uninsured to other patients, such as to those who pay out-of-pocket for their medical care.
Dees also took issue with consumers who don't get primary care for their diabetes or blood pressure on a timely basis, hence finding themselves in the ER. "Going to the doctor for strep throat would cost $65-$70. In the ER, it's $600 to $800," he said. The $787 billion stimulus bill signed passed by President Obama earlier this year allocates $1 billion for a wellness and prevention fund, including $300 million for immunizations and $650 million for prevention programs to combat the rapid growth in chronic diseases such as obesity and diabetes.
Medical "Oops"
Medical errors are costing the industry $17 billion a year in wasted expenses, something that makes patient advocacy groups irate. "Do we have a good health IT system in place to prevent this?" asked Kim Bailey, senior health policy analyst with consumer advocacy group Families USA. Bailey suggested that processes such as computerized order entry for drugs and use of electronic health records (EHR) could help ensure that patients get the correct dosage of medications in hospitals.
The stimulus bill calls for the government to take a leading role in developing standards by 2010 to facilitate the adoption of health information exchanges across the system, including patient electronic health records by 2014. Obama has repeatedly said that the use of technology in the health sector will help boost savings, enhance the coordination of care and reduce medical errors and unnecessary procedures.
Going back to the hospital
Bailey suggested that processes such as computerized order entry for drugs and use of electronic health records (EHR) could help ensure that patients get the correct dosage of medications in hospitals. Discharging patients too soon is a "huge waste of money," said Swanson. "This happens a lot with elderly patients who are discharged prematurely because of insurance, bed unavailability or ageism," she said.
Many times, patients also don't follow instructions for care after discharge. "So complications arise and they are readmitted in a week," Swanson said. PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates the cost of preventable hospital readmissions at $25 billion annually. Among the reform plans, one proposal being considered is for Medicare to potentially penalize hospitals who readmit patients within 30 days of discharge.
You forgot to wash your hands!
Those ubiquitous dispensers of hand sanitizer are in hospitals for a reason: PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates that about $3 billion is wasted every year as a result of infections acquired during hospital stays. "The general belief is that hospitals are getting much better in managing this than they have in the past," said Richard Clarke, CEO of Healthcare Financial Management Association, whose members include hospitals and managed care organizations. Something as simple as hand-washing often can reduce the problem.
"Sometimes doctors are the most difficult people to convince to do this," said Clarke. "The challenge here is that patients sometimes come in with infections which then spread in the hospital." The stimulus bill signed by Obama earlier this year includes $50 million for reducing health care-associated infections. Other areas of waste identified in the PricewaterhouseCoopers report included up to $493 billion related to risky behavior such as smoking, obesity and alcohol abuse, $21 billion in staffing turnover, $4 billion in prescriptions written on paper, and $1 billion in the over-prescribing of antibiotics.
Crisis and climate force supply shift
Manufacturers are abandoning global supply chains for regional ones in a big shift brought about by the financial crisis and climate change concerns, according to executives and analysts. Companies are increasingly looking closer to home for their components, meaning that for their US or European operations they are more likely to use Mexico and eastern Europe than China, as previously. "A future where energy is more expensive and less plentifully available will lead to more regional supply chains," Gerard Kleisterlee, chief executive of Philips, one of Europe's biggest companies, told the Financial Times.
Supply-chain experts agreed, with Ernst & Young underlining how as much as 70 per cent of a manufacturing company's carbon footprint can come from transport and other costs in its supply chain. Dan O'Regan, the accounting firm's head of supply chains, said: "It is not just the prospect of regulatory changes but also the downturn that is forcing many organisations to consider restructuring their supply chains in their entirety. I think you will find smaller, more regional supply chains."
Mr Kleisterlee said businesses needed to find ways to build an economy on a sustainable basis ahead of the Copenhagen summit on climate change later this year, with "a review of global logistics and transport" one of the important steps. He said that until now cheap transport costs had meant "Mexico wasn't competitive with China for supplying the US". But he now forecasts that companies such as Philips will use countries such as Ukraine for supplying Europe rather than Asia.
David Bartlett, an economic adviser to accounting group RSM International, pointed to industries such as steel, carmaking, aerospace and furniture where "there is a sense that distance to market really does matter". One example he cited was the use by Boeing of Mexican aerospace suppliers. He added: "We really are seeing a shift from a global supply chain to a regional one." In Europe, there have been many examples of companies bringing manufacturing back home or closer to the domestic market, from Samas, a Dutch furniture maker, to Zumtobel, an Austrian lighting group.
Mr O'Regan said several forces were causing companies to regionalise supply chains from rationalisation of production networks and regulatory change to pressure on the speed of delivery and the erosion of many of the cost or labour advantages some countries had enjoyed. Mr Kleisterlee said: "An economic crisis is a period when you should step back and think: is this a moment to make some fundamental changes?"
Canada's life insurance industry pushes pension fix
Canada's life insurers are proposing sweeping changes they say would allow the industry to help fix troubles in the pension system, lobbying against a push by some provinces for a new national plan. The industry's drive comes amid a raging debate over the problems, exacerbated by the recession and tumultuous stock markets, with how Canadians save for retirement. Aging baby boomers and the slow extinction of defined benefit plans are among the factors that have left many without sufficient financial protection for their retirement.
Alberta and British Columbia have been pushing a proposal to create a new national system for Canadians without a workplace plan. This voluntary plan would be in addition to the Canada Pension Plan and would be in the form of defined contribution, meaning the participants would receive payments that depend on the plan's investment income. Provincial premiers met in Regina last week and called on Ottawa for a national summit on retirement income, directing their finance ministers to report this year on ways that both private and public sector plans can be improved.
The life insurance industry, which is responsible for about two-thirds of defined contribution plans in Canada, has also been talking to provincial and federal governments about "private sector solutions that we think will be as effective as any government-sponsored ones," said Frank Swedlove, president of the Canadian Life and Health Insurance Association. "Some of the proposals that have been made raise some concerns for us," Mr. Swedlove said. "Some of these proposals relate to a government-sponsored defined contribution plan, and we don't think that that's the best way to go. "We think there are opportunities to increase pension activity for Canadians by changing some of the pension rules that exist in the country."
Donald Stewart, chief executive officer of Sun Life Financial, the biggest industry player in the game, agreed the private sector can service the country's retirement needs, and said it is calling on government to update pension laws to spur further involvement. The industry wants the government to alter the Income Tax Act so that a pension plan sponsor need not have a specific relation with, or be an employer of, a participant in a defined contribution plan. That would mean life insurers and others could sponsor an umbrella plan that could take in a number of companies and, the industry argues, make it easier for many small and mid-sized businesses to offer pensions to their employees.
It could also mean more self-employed people are able to access pensions. The industry also wants changes to employment standards laws that would allow for the indexing of pension contributions so that contribution rates could be automatically indexed based on age and other factors. That could help new employees who aren't yet prepared to contribute as much. More broadly, life insurers want a major overhaul of federal and provincial pension laws in general. The laws were written in an era of defined benefit plans, and have not been properly updated following the dramatic shift toward defined contribution plans, they argue. The laws also fall into a patchwork system of federal and provincial rules that the insurers believe must be harmonized.
"If you have consistent plans, individuals can be mobile across the country," said Sue Reibel, senior vice-president of Manulife Financial's Canadian Group savings and retirement solutions. She has spoken to the Alberta and Ontario finance ministers, and travelled to Ottawa on the issue. "One of the things that we all agreed on is that we need to do more," she said. "We agree that we need to enhance Canadian savings." She would like to see changes to the savings legislation that would give Canadians a lifetime RRSP contribution limit, rather than an annual one, similar to what Britain now has. That would give people the flexibility to contribute more when they can, and also account for the natural tendency to save more with age.
With such changes, government can spur retirement savings without intervening in the system further, the industry argues. "As a taxpayer, if I divorce myself from my company, I would step back and say that we've got a private sector that built everything," Ms. Reibel said. "They've been building the business for the last 10 years, which is when the defined contribution business really started to grow. Why would you build a new one to do exactly what's there, unless to point to it and say it's broken? And I don't think anyone's pointed to it and said we're not doing a good job."
Germany's gold is in U.S. custody, Bundesbank confirms
International journalist Max Keiser has just posted a nine-minute documentary he has done about the British government's gold sales that were begun in 1999 and now are disparaged as "Brown's Bottom," after then-Chancellor, now-Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who decided upon the sales and remains unashamed that they marked the bottom of the gold market. Keiser's documentary is based largely on an interview with Conservative Party opposition Member of Parliament Phillip Hammond, who is shadow chief secretary of the treasury and who remarks that the British gold sales seem to have been structured precisely to knock the price of gold down rather than to maximize the return to the British government. Hammond also wonders aloud whether "something other than achieving the best price" might have been the objective of the gold sales scheme.
But Keiser's documentary may be sensational for getting an acknowledgement from the German central bank, the Bundesbank, that Germany's gold reserves are actually in the custody of the United States. This is a detail the Bundesbank long has denied to others who have inquired and is potentially a matter of great controversy in Germany. It raises the question of whether the German gold reserves are actually intact at all or whether they have been used by the U.S. government as part of its long-time gold price suppression scheme or have been comingled and diminished with the gold reserves of other countries held in the United States.
While Keiser's documentary does not identify the Bundesbank spokesman who confirmed the transfer of the German gold reserves to New York, it does provide the date and location of the confirmation: March 17, 2008, at Bundesbank headquarters in Frankfurt. The documentary shows that Keiser was there and got the interview.
After his interview at the Bundesbank, Keiser remarks: "The most fascinating thing I've heard is that all the gold in Germany is in New York." Indeed. Keiser's documentary is titled "Brown's Bottom" and you can watch it at YouTube here:
Food crisis could force wartime rations and vegetarian diet on Britons
The British people face wartime rations and a vegetarian diet in the event of a world food shortage, a new official assessment on the UK’s food security suggests today. Even though the nation is 73 per cent self-sufficient in food production, higher than during the 1950s, the food chain is at risk from global influences such as a worldwide increase in population, climate change bringing extreme weather patterns, higher oil prices and more crops being grown for bio-fuel instead of food.
Supplies in future may also be disrupted by animal disease outbreaks, disruption of power supplies, trade disputes and interruptions for shipping and at ports. The UK however has one of the highest cereal production capabilities in the world with seven tonnes grown per hectare, compared a world average of 3.3 tonnes per hectare. In the event of an extreme event, cereal crops would be used to feed the nation and ensure that each person received sufficient daily calories.
But people would have to consume less — the average number of calories eaten per day in the early 1960s was about 2,100, whereas the most recent figure compiled by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation is 2,800. Even during the Second World War Britain did not have to rely wholly on domestic food production, but Hilary Benn, the Cabinet Minister with overall responsibility for food policy, has ordered officials to prepare for a scenario where the country could feed itself.
In the event of an extreme emergency the most dramatic consequence would be every person eating a predominantly vegetarian diet — more cereals, fruit and vegetables and less meat and poultry. Cereals used to feed farm animals would be shifted into human food production. A paper setting out the food security assessment states that the food on offer would be "a highly restricted, if sufficiently nutritious diet". One of the biggest threats to the supply chain would be restrictions in trade of meat and poultry from Argentina and Brazil or of GM soya, the main commodity used to feed livestock in Britain.
The threat of climate change however will also require new growing techniques such as reduced water usage in agriculture. In times of normal trading, however, the Government also wishes to ensure that the nation eats a healthier diet and is particularly concerned that low-income households are able to afford fresh fruit and vegetables. Ministers are also anxious that consumers have confidence in the safety of food and further work is to be undertaken to help reduce the incidence of food poisoning caused by common bugs such as salmonellas, listeria, E.coli and campylobacter. Hygiene inspections at food outlets by local authority enforcement officers is likely to be stepped up.
Mr Benn today called for a radical rethink on the way the UK produces food. He also insisted that GM crops in future could help boost food production especially if some varieties were drought-resistant or required less water, fertilisers and pesticides. He backed the need for GM crop trials to find out the facts about the new technology and to use the science to boost production. "We need a radical rethink in how we produce and consume food. Globally we need to cut emissions and adapt to the changing climate that will alter what we can grow and where we can grow it. We must maintain the natural resources — soils, water and biodiversity — on which food production depends."
"And because we live in an interconnected world — where the price of soya in Brazil affects the price of steak at the local supermarket — we need to look at global issues that affect food security here. That’s why we need to consider what food systems should look like in 20 years and what must happen to get there." He is anxious to engage the wider public in debate about the future of the country’s food security as well as how best to help people eat healthier diets and to ensure that new production techniques do not damage the UK’s natural resources. A new UK food strategy is to be published before the end of the year.
Amsterdam Trading House Van der Moolen Seeks Payments Suspension, Posts Loss
Van der Moolen Holding NV, the 117- year-old Dutch stockbroker, obtained a suspension of payments requested from an Amsterdam court because of a "very weak liquidity position," and said it may sell parts of the company. "Current management concluded Van der Moolen would soon be unable to satisfy its obligations," the Amsterdam-based firm said in a statement distributed by Hugin today. No suspension of payments was sought for any of Van der Moolen’s subsidiaries, the company said. The company said the court appointed two administrators.
Van der Moolen took the step because of slumping revenue, costs related to moving offices, and 30 million euros ($42.6 million) of treasury share purchases in 2008 that had a "too severe" impact on its reserves. The company reported today a first-half loss of 8.7 million euros and a 73 percent plunge in sales from a year earlier. "It’s clearly mismanagement," said Nico van Geest, an Amsterdam-based analyst at Keijser Capital NV. "I think a few units will survive and Van der Moolen will be delisted," said Van Geest, who rates the company "sell."
Van der Moolen said "serious consideration" is being given to selling parts of the company. The firm has been operating without a chief executive officer or management board since Richard den Drijver, 48, stepped down on July 16, leaving the supervisory board temporarily in charge. Van der Moolen was suspended in Amsterdam trading today on instructions from Dutch securities regulator AFM. The shares have dropped 76 percent in the past 12 months, giving Van der Moolen a market value of 52 million euros.
The company was founded on July 1, 1892, by F.J. van der Moolen as a stockbroker, according to the Amsterdam Stock Exchange. It became the No. 4 market maker on the New York Stock Exchange in 2001 after buying specialists including Cohen, Duffy, McGowan & Co. and Scavone, McKenna, Cloud & Co. Van der Moolen transferred its unprofitable NYSE specialist unit to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in December 2007, quitting floor trading in New York after more than a decade, as the bourse’s switch to electronic dealing eroded the traditional floor-trading business. Van der Moolen has posted three consecutive annual losses. The company canceled the 43.3 million-euro acquisition of stakes in GSFS Asset Management BV and Global Securities Arbitrage BV in March, saying the moves "will not lead to the intended positive impact on the shareholders value of Van der Moolen." The firm said today it will no longer carry out dividend arbitrage with GSFS.
Van der Moolen also agreed to sell its 50 percent stake in Gekko Global Markets Ltd. to joint-venture partner Sycap, "with the condition that permission would be granted by the administrator to be named under the surseance."
The recent departure of 10 traders in the U.K. and the announced departure of 11 traders in the Netherlands will have an adverse effect on Van der Moolen’s operations and results, the company said. The financial information released today doesn’t include asset impairments, "because it can not be determined which, if any, assets should be impaired and what the extent of any such impairment may be," the firm said. "Management emphasizes that it is seriously considering significant asset impairments." The company called an extraordinary shareholders meeting to take place in the second half of September.
Latvia’s Economy Contracted Record 19.6% Last Quarter
Latvia’s economy shrank an annual 19.6 percent last quarter, the European Union’s second-steepest output slump after neighboring Lithuania, as manufacturing and retail sales plunged. The contraction, the worst since quarterly records began in the Baltic nation in 1995, gathered pace after gross domestic product shrank 18 percent in the first quarter, the central statistics office in Riga said today, citing preliminary figures. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of eight economists was for a 22 percent decline. The final report will be released on Sept. 8.
"The steepest decline is behind us," said Andris Vilks at SEB AB’s Latvian unit, who had estimated an 18 percent contraction for the second quarter. "The third and fourth quarters may see a decline of about 12 percent to 15 percent." Latvia’s economy, the fastest growing in the EU in 2006, is now suffering as the Baltic region, which includes Lithuania and Estonia, sinks into the severest recession in the 27-nation bloc. Latvia was forced to turn to a group led by the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund for a 7.5 billion-euro ($10.8 billion) loan after its second-biggest bank needed a state rescue and a property bubble burst.
Latvia’s inflation rate fell to 2.5 percent in July, the lowest in more than six years, the statistics office reported today. The country’s trade deficit narrowed to 67 million lati ($136 million) in June, the smallest shortfall since February 2002, as imports fell twice as much as exports in the year. "On a seasonally, quarterly adjusted basis, the figure looks roughly flat," Oliver Weeks, a London-based economist at Morgan Stanley, said by telephone. "It’s quite a positive surprise, particularly given the sharp second-quarter downturn in Lithuania. We won’t see a contraction again like we did in the first quarter" on a quarterly basis.
Households and businesses are struggling to get back on their feet after the government agreed to reductions in state pay and pensions in an effort to rein in the budget and comply with the terms of the bailout. The IMF and the commission both withheld disbursements earlier this year until lawmakers committed to budget cuts. "In the next quarters the situation will become more positive, though a number of serious economic problems will remain," said Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis in an e-mailed statement after the figures were released. "Latvia has already overcome the statistically deepest downturn."
Austerity measures have left households struggling to make ends meet, with spending in shops plummeting, while the slump in demand has left businesses floundering. Retail sales fell 28.5 percent in the second quarter and industrial production dropped 18.7 percent. Latvia’s spending and wage cuts threaten to exacerbate its recession this year. Parliament passed spending cuts worth about 500 million lati ($1 billion) on June 16 to ensure the continued inflow of bailout payments. The government has committed to cutting spending or raising revenue by 500 million lati a year until 2012 to enable euro adoption. Latvia pegs its lats to the euro as part of the exchange rate mechanism. Lithuania’s GDP contracted a preliminary 22.4 percent in the second quarter.
S&P Downgrades Latvia, Estonia Amid Economic Woes
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services on Monday downgraded the Baltic nations of Estonia and Latvia, citing challenges from a steep recession after years of growth from foreign investments. Estonia has amassed a big current account deficit after lapping up cheap credit during the lending boom spurred on by Nordic banks earlier this decade. Already a member of the European Union, Estonia's plans to adopt the euro were undertaken, in part, to avoid facing the same devaluation danger as neighbor Latvia. S&P warned current economic challenges could delay its efforts to adopt the currency.
In 2009, fixed investment in Estonia is set to contract 25% to 30%, as foreign capital is exiting sectors such as construction and retail. The worsening credit conditions are contributing to the country's economic pressures and compounding difficulties the government faces as it seeks to maintain revenue while the tax base is decreasing. But unlike many of its peers, Estonia entered the recession with larger fiscal reserves, and the public sector's reliance on external financing is low. For those reasons, S&P said Estonia is unlikely to need to borrow in international markets over the next few years.
As a result of those concerns, S&P lowered its long-term sovereign rating on Estonia by one notch to A-. The ratings outlook is negative, reflecting the likelihood of another downgrade if current economic adjustment fails to improve competitiveness. For its part, Latvia - which has an economy of less than $25 billion - took an outsized role in the global economic crisis. The International Monetary Fund expects Latvia's economy to contract 18% this year and 4% in 2010. S&P noted Latvia faces political and economic challenges due to pressures on public finances and its lending program with the European Union and the IMF. Those groups stepped in to ensure Latvia doesn't default on loans with Swedish banks, which could further damage the European banking system.
S&P lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on Latvia by one notch to BB, putting the rating two steps into junk. The outlook is negative. Later Monday, S&P placed its rating on the third Baltic nation, Lithuania, on watch for downgrade. After several rounds of budgetary cuts, this year's fiscal deficit is still expected to exceed 8% of gross domestic product. Meanwhile, external demand is hurt by Lithuania's large trade exposure to the other two Baltic states. "We expect consumption to contract 18% year-over-year in real terms during 2009 and to remain anemic during 2010," said S&P credit analyst Frank Gill. He added Lithuania's prospects for entry into the euro currency zone were subsiding. Lithuania's sovereign credit rating, which was downgraded by S&P in March, is BBB. That is two steps above junk.
Entering the Greatest Depression in History
by Andrew Gavin Marshall
While there is much talk of a recovery on the horizon, commentators are forgetting some crucial aspects of the financial crisis. The crisis is not simply composed of one bubble, the housing real estate bubble, which has already burst. The crisis has many bubbles, all of which dwarf the housing bubble burst of 2008. Indicators show that the next possible burst is the commercial real estate bubble. However, the main event on the horizon is the “bailout bubble” and the general world debt bubble, which will plunge the world into a Great Depression the likes of which have never before been seen.
Housing Crash Still Not Over
The housing real estate market, despite numbers indicating an upward trend, is still in trouble, as, “Houses are taking months to sell. Many buyers are having trouble getting financing as lenders and appraisers struggle to figure out what houses are really worth in the wake of the collapse.” Further, “the overall market remains very soft [...] aside from speculators and first-time buyers.” Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington said, “It would be wrong to imagine that we have hit a turning point in the market,” as “There is still an enormous oversupply of housing, which means that the direction of house prices will almost certainly continue to be downward.” Foreclosures are still rising in many states “such as Nevada, Georgia and Utah, and economists say rising unemployment may push foreclosures higher into next year.” Clearly, the housing crisis is still not at an end.[1]
The Commercial Real Estate Bubble
In May, Bloomberg quoted Deutsche Bank CEO Josef Ackermann as saying, “It's either the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning.” Bloomberg further pointed out that, “A piece of the puzzle that must be calculated into any determination of the depth of our economic doldrums is the condition of commercial real estate – the shopping malls, hotels, and office buildings that tend to go along with real-estate expansions.” Residential investment went down 28.9 % from 2006 to 2007, and at the same time, nonresidential investment grew 24.9%, thus, commercial real estate was “serving as a buffer against the declining housing market.”
Commercial real estate lags behind housing trends, and so too, will the crisis, as “commercial construction projects are losing their appeal.” Further, “there are lots of reasons to suspect that commercial real estate was subject to some of the loose lending practices that afflicted the residential market. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's Survey of Credit Underwriting Practices found that whereas in 2003 just 2 percent of banks were easing their underwriting standards on commercial construction loans, by 2006 almost a third of them were relaxing.” In May it was reported that, “Almost 80 percent of domestic banks are tightening their lending standards for commercial real-estate loans,” and that, “we may face double-bubble trouble for real estate and the economy.”[2]
In late July of 2009, it was reported that, “Commercial real estate’s decline is a significant issue facing the economy because it may result in more losses for the financial industry than residential real estate. This category includes apartment buildings, hotels, office towers, and shopping malls.” Worth noting is that, “As the economy has struggled, developers and landlords have had to rely on a helping hand from the US Federal Reserve in order to try to get credit flowing so that they can refinance existing buildings or even to complete partially constructed projects.” So again, the Fed is delaying the inevitable by providing more liquidity to an already inflated bubble. As the Financial Post pointed out, “From Vancouver to Manhattan, we are seeing rising office vacancies and declines in office rents.”[3]
In April of 2009, it was reported that, “Office vacancies in U.S. downtowns increased to 12.5 percent in the first quarter, the highest in three years, as companies cut jobs and new buildings came onto the market,” and, “Downtown office vacancies nationwide could come close to 15 percent by the end of this year, approaching the 10-year high of 15.5 percent in 2003.”[4]
In the same month it was reported that, “Strip malls, neighborhood centers and regional malls are losing stores at the fastest pace in at least a decade, as a spending slump forces retailers to trim down to stay afloat.” In the first quarter of 2009, retail tenants “have vacated 8.7 million square feet of commercial space,” which “exceeds the 8.6 million square feet of retail space that was vacated in all of 2008.” Further, as CNN reported, “vacancy rates at malls rose 9.5% in the first quarter, outpacing the 8.9% vacancy rate registered in all of 2008.” Of significance for those that think and claim the crisis will be over by 2010, “mall vacancies [are expected] to exceed historical levels through 2011,” as for retailers, “it's only going to get worse.”[5] Two days after the previous report, “General Growth Properties Inc, the second-largest U.S. mall owner, declared bankruptcy on [April 16] in the biggest real estate failure in U.S. history.”[6]
In April, the Financial Times reported that, “Property prices in China are likely to halve over the next two years, a top government researcher has predicted in a powerful signal that the country’s economic downturn faces further challenges despite recent positive data.” This is of enormous significance, as “The property market, along with exports, were leading drivers of the booming Chinese economy over the past decade.” Further, “an apparent rebound in the property market was unsustainable over the medium term and being driven by a flood of liquidity and fraudulent activity rather than real demand.” A researcher at a leading Chinese government think tank reported that, “he expected average urban residential property prices to fall by 40 to 50 per cent over the next two years from their levels at the end of 2008.”[7]
In April, it was reported that, “The Federal Reserve is considering offering longer loans to investors in commercial mortgage-backed securities as part of a plan to help jump-start the market for commercial real estate debt.” Since February the Fed “has been analyzing appropriate terms and conditions for accepting commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and other mortgage assets as collateral for its Term Asset-Backed Securities Lending Facility (TALF).”[8]
In late July, the Financial Times reported that, “Two of America’s biggest banks, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo ... threw into sharp relief the mounting woes of the US commercial property market when they reported large losses and surging bad loan,” as “The disappointing second-quarter results for two of the largest lenders and investors in office, retail and industrial property across the US confirmed investors’ fears that commercial real estate would be the next front in the financial crisis after the collapse of the housing market.” The commercial property market, worth $6.7 trillion, “which accounts for more than 10 per cent of US gross domestic product, could be a significant hurdle on the road to recovery.”[9]
The Bailout Bubble
While the bailout, or the “stimulus package” as it is often referred to, is getting good coverage in terms of being portrayed as having revived the economy and is leading the way to the light at the end of the tunnel, key factors are again misrepresented in this situation.
At the end of March of 2009, Bloomberg reported that, “The U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have spent, lent or committed $12.8 trillion, an amount that approaches the value of everything produced in the country last year.” This amount “works out to $42,105 for every man, woman and child in the U.S. and 14 times the $899.8 billion of currency in circulation. The nation’s gross domestic product was $14.2 trillion in 2008.”[10]
Gerald Celente, the head of the Trends Research Institute, the major trend-forecasting agency in the world, wrote in May of 2009 of the “bailout bubble.” Celente’s forecasts are not to be taken lightly, as he accurately predicted the 1987 stock market crash, the fall of the Soviet Union, the 1998 Russian economic collapse, the 1997 East Asian economic crisis, the 2000 Dot-Com bubble burst, the 2001 recession, the start of a recession in 2007 and the housing market collapse of 2008, among other things.
On May 13, 2009, Celente released a Trend Alert, reporting that, “The biggest financial bubble in history is being inflated in plain sight,” and that, “This is the Mother of All Bubbles, and when it explodes [...] it will signal the end to the boom/bust cycle that has characterized economic activity throughout the developed world.” Further, “This is much bigger than the Dot-com and Real Estate bubbles which hit speculators, investors and financiers the hardest. However destructive the effects of these busts on employment, savings and productivity, the Free Market Capitalist framework was left intact. But when the 'Bailout Bubble' explodes, the system goes with it.”
Celente further explained that, “Phantom dollars, printed out of thin air, backed by nothing ... and producing next to nothing ... defines the ‘Bailout Bubble.’ Just as with the other bubbles, so too will this one burst. But unlike Dot-com and Real Estate, when the "Bailout Bubble" pops, neither the President nor the Federal Reserve will have the fiscal fixes or monetary policies available to inflate another.” Celente elaborated, “Given the pattern of governments to parlay egregious failures into mega-failures, the classic trend they follow, when all else fails, is to take their nation to war,” and that, “While we cannot pinpoint precisely when the 'Bailout Bubble' will burst, we are certain it will. When it does, it should be understood that a major war could follow.”[11] However, this “bailout bubble” that Celente was referring to at the time was the $12.8 trillion reported by Bloomberg. As of July, estimates put this bubble at nearly double the previous estimate.
As the Financial Times reported in late July of 2009, while the Fed and Treasury hail the efforts and impact of the bailouts, “Neil Barofsky, special inspector-general for the troubled asset relief programme, [TARP] said that the various US schemes to shore up banks and restart lending exposed federal agencies to a risk of $23,700bn [$23.7 trillion] – a vast estimate that was immediately dismissed by the Treasury.” The inspector-general of the TARP program stated that there were “fundamental vulnerabilities . . . relating to conflicts of interest and collusion, transparency, performance measures, and anti-money laundering.”
Barofsky also reports on the “considerable stress” in commercial real estate, as “The Fed has begun to open up Talf to commercial mortgage-backed securities to try to influence credit conditions in the commercial real estate market. The report draws attention to a new potential credit crunch when $500bn worth of real estate mortgages need to be refinanced by the end of the year.” Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the Fed, and Timothy Geithner, the Treasury Secretary and former President of the New York Fed, are seriously discussing extending TALF (Term Asset-Backed Securities Lending Facility) into “CMBS [Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities] and other assets such as small business loans and whether to increase the size of the programme.” It is the “expansion of the various programmes into new and riskier asset classes is one of the main bones of contention between the Treasury and Mr Barofsky.”[12]
Testifying before Congress, Barofsky said, “From programs involving large capital infusions into hundreds of banks and other financial institutions, to a mortgage modification program designed to modify millions of mortgages, to public-private partnerships using tens of billions of taxpayer dollars to purchase 'toxic' assets from banks, TARP has evolved into a program of unprecedented scope, scale, and complexity.” He explained that, “The total potential federal government support could reach up to 23.7 trillion dollars.”[13]
Is a Future Bailout Possible?
In early July of 2009, billionaire investor Warren Buffet said that, “unemployment could hit 11 percent and a second stimulus package might be needed as the economy struggles to recover from recession,” and he further stated that, “we're not in a recovery.”[14] Also in early July, an economic adviser to President Obama stated that, “The United States should be planning for a possible second round of fiscal stimulus to further prop up the economy.”[15]
In August of 2009, it was reported that, “THE Obama administration will consider dishing out more money to rein in unemployment despite signs the recession is ending,” and that, “Treasury secretary Tim Geithner also conceded tax hikes could be on the agenda as the government worked to bring its huge recovery-related deficits under control.” Geithner said, “we will do what it takes,” and that, “more federal cash could be tipped into the recovery as unemployment benefits amid projections the benefits extended to 1.5 million jobless Americans will expire without Congress' intervention.” However, any future injection of money could be viewed as “a second stimulus package.”[16]
The Washington Post reported in early July of a Treasury Department initiative known as “Plan C.” The Plan C team was assembled “to examine what could yet bring [the economy] down and has identified several trouble spots that could threaten the still-fragile lending industry,” and “the internal project is focused on vexing problems such as the distressed commercial real estate markets, the high rate of delinquencies among homeowners, and the struggles of community and regional banks.”
Further, “The team is also responsible for considering potential government responses, but top officials within the Obama administration are wary of rolling out initiatives that would commit massive amounts of federal resources.” The article elaborated in saying that, “The creation of Plan C is a sign that the government has moved into a new phase of its response, acting preemptively rather than reacting to emerging crises.” In particular, the near-term challenge they are facing is commercial real estate lending, as “Banks and other firms that provided such loans in the past have sharply curtailed lending,” leaving “many developers and construction companies out in the cold.” Within the next couple years, “these groups face a tidal wave of commercial real estate debt–some estimates peg the total at more than $3 trillion–that they will need to refinance. These loans were issued during this decade's construction boom with the mistaken expectation that they would be refinanced on the same generous terms after a few years.”
However, as a result of the credit crisis, “few developers can find anyone to refinance their debt, endangering healthy and distressed properties.” Kim Diamond, a managing director at Standard & Poor's, stated that, “It's not a degree to which people are willing to lend,” but rather, “The question is whether a loan can be made at all.” Important to note is that, “Financial analysts said losses on commercial real estate loans are now the single largest cause of bank failures,” and that none of the bailout efforts enacted “is big enough to address the size of the problem.”[17]
So the question must be asked: what is Plan C contemplating in terms of a possible government “solution”? Another bailout? The effect that this would have would be to further inflate the already monumental bailout bubble.
The Great European Bubble
In October of 2008, Germany and France led a European Union bailout of 1 trillion Euros, and “World markets initially soared as European governments pumped billions into crippled banks. Central banks in Europe also mounted a new offensive to restart lending by supplying unlimited amounts of dollars to commercial banks in a joint operation.”[18]
The American bailouts even went to European banks, as it was reported in March of 2009 that, “European banks declined to discuss a report that they were beneficiaries of the $173 billion bail-out of insurer AIG,” as “Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and a host of other U.S. and European banks had been paid roughly $50 billion since the Federal Reserve first extended aid to AIG.” Among the European banks, “French banks Societe Generale and Calyon on Sunday declined to comment on the story, as did Deutsche Bank, Britain's Barclays and unlisted Dutch group Rabobank.” Other banks that got money from the US bailout include HSBC, Wachovia, Merrill Lynch, Banco Santander and Royal Bank of Scotland. Because AIG was essentially insolvent, “the bailout enabled AIG to pay its counterparty banks for extra collateral,” with “Goldman Sachs and Deutsche bank each receiving $6 billion in payments between mid-September and December.”[19]
In April of 2009, it was reported that, “EU governments have committed 3 trillion Euros [or $4 trillion dollars] to bail out banks with guarantees or cash injections in the wake of the global financial crisis, the European Commission.”[20]
In early February of 2009, the Telegraph published a story with a startling headline, “European banks may need 16.3 trillion pound bail-out, EC document warns.” Type this headline into google, and the link to the Telegraph appears. However, click on the link, and the title has changed to “European bank bail-out could push EU into crisis.” Further, they removed any mention of the amount of money that may be required for a bank bailout. The amount in dollars, however, nears $25 trillion. The amount is the cumulative total of the troubled assets on bank balance sheets, a staggering number derived from the derivatives trade.
The Telegraph reported that, “National leaders and EU officials share fears that a second bank bail-out in Europe will raise government borrowing at a time when investors – particularly those who lend money to European governments – have growing doubts over the ability of countries such as Spain, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Britain to pay it back.”[21]
When Eastern European countries were in desperate need of financial aid, and discussion was heated on the possibility of an EU bailout of Eastern Europe, the EU, at the behest of Angela Merkel of Germany, denied the East European bailout. However, this was more a public relations stunt than an actual policy position.
While the EU refused money to Eastern Europe in the form of a bailout, in late March European leaders “doubled the emergency funding for the fragile economies of central and eastern Europe and pledged to deliver another doubling of International Monetary Fund lending facilities by putting up 75bn Euros (70bn pounds).” EU leaders “agreed to increase funding for balance of payments support available for mainly eastern European member states from 25bn Euros to 50bn Euros.”[22]
As explained in a Times article in June of 2009, Germany has been deceitful in its public stance versus its actual policy decisions. The article, worth quoting in large part, first explained that:Europe is now in the middle of a perfect storm – a confluence of three separate, but interconnected economic crises which threaten far greater devastation than Britain or America have suffered from the credit crunch: the collapse of German industry and employment, the impending bankruptcy of Central European homeowners and businesses; and the threat of government debt defaults from loss of monetary control by the Irish Republic, Greece and Portugal, for instance on the eurozone periphery.
Taking the case of Latvia, the author asks, “If the crisis expands, other EU governments – and especially Germany's – will face an existential question. Do they commit hundreds of billions of euros to guarantee the debts of fellow EU countries? Or do they allow government defaults and devaluations that may ultimately break up the single currency and further cripple German industry, as well as the country's domestic banks?” While addressing that, “Publicly, German politicians have insisted that any bailouts or guarantees are out of the question,” however, “the pass has been quietly sold in Brussels, while politicians loudly protested their unshakeable commitment to defend it.”
The author addressed how in October of 2008:[...] a previously unused regulation was discovered, allowing the creation of a 25 billion Euros “balance of payments facility” and authorising the EU to borrow substantial sums under its own “legal personality” for the first time. This facility was doubled again to 50 billion Euros in March. If Latvia's financial problems turn into a full-scale crisis, these guarantees and cross-subsidies between EU governments will increase to hundreds of billions in the months ahead and will certainly mutate into large-scale centralised EU borrowing, jointly guaranteed by all the taxpayers of the EU. [...] The new EU borrowing, for example, is legally an ‘off-budget’ and ‘back-to-back’ arrangement, which allows Germany to maintain the legal fiction that it is not guaranteeing the debts of Latvia et al. The EU's bond prospectus to investors, however, makes quite clear where the financial burden truly lies: “From an investor's point of view the bond is fully guaranteed by the EU budget and, ultimately, by the EU Member States.”[23]
So Eastern Europe is getting, or presumably will get bailed out. Whether this is in the form of EU federalism, providing loans of its own accord, paid for by European taxpayers, or through the IMF, which will attach any loans with its stringent Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) conditionalities, or both. It turned out that the joint partnership of the IMF and EU is what provided the loans and continues to provide such loans.
As the Financial Times pointed out in August of 2009, “Bank failures or plunging currencies in the three Baltic nations – Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia – could threaten the fragile prospect of recovery in the rest of Europe. These countries also sit on one of the world’s most sensitive political fault-lines. They are the European Union’s frontier states, bordering Russia.” In July, Latvia “agreed its second loan in eight months from the IMF and the EU,” following the first one in December. Lithuania is reported to be following suit. However, as the Financial Times noted, the loans came with the IMF conditionalities: “The injection of cash is the good news. The bad news is that, in return for shoring up state finances, the new IMF deal will require the Latvian government to impose yet more pain on its suffering population. Public-sector wages have already been cut by about a third this year. Pensions have been sliced. Now the IMF requires Latvia to cut another 10 per cent from the state budget this autumn.”[24]
If we are to believe the brief Telegraph report pertaining to nearly $25 trillion in bad bank assets, which was removed from the original article for undisclosed reasons, not citing a factual retraction, the question is, does this potential bailout still stand? These banks haven’t been rescued financially from the EU, so, presumably, these bad assets are still sitting on the bank balance sheets. This bubble has yet to blow. Combine this with the $23.7 trillion US bailout bubble, and there is nearly $50 trillion between the EU and the US waiting to burst.
An Oil Bubble
In early July of 2009, the New York Times reported that, “The extreme volatility that has gripped oil markets for the last 18 months has shown no signs of slowing down, with oil prices more than doubling since the beginning of the year despite an exceptionally weak economy.” Instability in the oil and gas prices has led many to “fear it could jeopardize a global recovery.” Further, “It is also hobbling businesses and consumers,” as “A wild run on the oil markets has occurred in the last 12 months.” Oil prices reached a record high last summer at $145/barrel, and with the economic crisis they fell to $33/barrel in December. However, since the start of 2009, oil has risen 55% to $70/barrel.
As the Times article points out, “the recent rise in oil prices is reprising the debate from last year over the role of investors – or speculators – in the commodity markets.” Energy officials from the EU and OPEC met in June and concluded that, “the speculation issue had not been resolved yet and that the 2008 bubble could be repeated.”[25]
In June of 2009, Hedge Fund manager Michael Masters told the US Senate that, “Congress has not done enough to curb excessive speculation in the oil markets, leaving the country vulnerable to another price run-up in 2009.” He explained that, “oil prices are largely not determined by supply and demand but the trading desks of large Wall Street firms.” Because “Nothing was actually done by Congress to put an end to the problem of excessive speculation” in 2008, Masters explained, “there is nothing to prevent another bubble in oil prices in 2009. In fact, signs of another possible bubble are already beginning to appear.”[26]
In May of 2008, Goldman Sachs warned that oil could reach as much as $200/barrel within the next 12-24 months [up to May 2010]. Interestingly, “Goldman Sachs is one of the largest Wall Street investment banks trading oil and it could profit from an increase in prices.”[27] However, this is missing the key point. Not only would Goldman Sachs profit, but Goldman Sachs plays a major role in sending oil prices up in the first place.
As Ed Wallace pointed out in an article in Business Week in May of 2008, Goldman Sachs’ report placed the blame for such price hikes on “soaring demand” from China and the Middle East, combined with the contention that the Middle East has or would soon peak in its oil reserves. Wallace pointed out that:Goldman Sachs was one of the founding partners of online commodities and futures marketplace Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). And ICE has been a primary focus of recent congressional investigations; it was named both in the Senate's Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations' June 27, 2006, Staff Report and in the House Committee on Energy & Commerce's hearing last December. Those investigations looked into the unregulated trading in energy futures, and both concluded that energy prices' climb to stratospheric heights has been driven by the billions of dollars' worth of oil and natural gas futures contracts being placed on the ICE – which is not regulated by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission.[28]
Essentially, Goldman Sachs is one of the key speculators in the oil market, and thus, plays a major role in driving oil prices up on speculation. This must be reconsidered in light of the resurgent rise in oil prices in 2009. In July of 2009, “Goldman Sachs Group Inc. posted record earnings as revenue from trading and stock underwriting reached all-time highs less than a year after the firm took $10 billion in U.S. rescue funds.”[29] Could one be related to the other?
Bailouts Used in Speculation
In November of 2008, the Chinese government injected an “$849 billion stimulus package aimed at keeping the emerging economic superpower growing.”[30] China then recorded a rebound in the growth rate of the economy, and underwent a stock market boom. However, as the Wall Street Journal pointed out in July of 2009, “Its growth is now fuelled by cheap debt rather than corporate profits and retained earnings, and this shift in the medium term threatens to undermine China’s economic decoupling from the global slump.” Further, “overseas money has been piling into China, inflating foreign exchange reserves and domestic liquidity. So perhaps it is not surprising that outstanding bank loans have doubled in the last few years, or that there is much talk of a shadow banking system. Then there is China’s reputation for building overcapacity in its industrial sector, a notoriety it won even before the crash in global demand. This showed a disregard for returns that is always a tell-tale sign of cheap money.”
China’s economy primarily relies upon the United States as a consumption market for its cheap products. However, “The slowdown in U.S. consumption amid a credit crunch has exposed the weaknesses in this export-led financing model. So now China is turning instead to cheap debt for funding, a shift suggested by this year’s 35% or so rise in bank loans.”[31]
In August of 2009, it was reported that China is experiencing a “stimulus-fueled stock market boom.” However, this has caused many leaders to “worry that too much of the $1-trillion lending binge by state banks that paid for China's nascent revival was diverted into stocks and real estate, raising the danger of a boom and bust cycle and higher inflation less than two years after an earlier stock market bubble burst.”[32]
The same reasoning needs to be applied to the US stock market surge. Something is inherently and structurally wrong with a financial system in which nothing is being produced, 600,000 jobs are lost monthly, and yet, the stock market goes up. Why is the stock market going up?
The Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), which provided $700 billion in bank bailouts, started under Bush and expanded under Obama, entails that the US Treasury purchases $700 billion worth of “troubled assets” from banks, and in turn, “that banks cannot be asked to account for their use of taxpayer money.”[33]
So if banks don’t have to account for where the money goes, where did it go? They claim it went back into lending. However, bank lending continues to go down.[34] Stock market speculation is the likely answer. Why else would stocks go up, lending continue downwards, and the bailout money be unaccounted for?
What Does the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Have to Say?
In late June, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the central bank of the world’s central banks, the most prestigious and powerful financial organization in the world, delivered an important warning. It stated that, “fiscal stimulus packages may provide no more than a temporary boost to growth, and be followed by an extended period of economic stagnation.”
The BIS, “The only international body to correctly predict the financial crisis ... has warned the biggest risk is that governments might be forced by world bond investors to abandon their stimulus packages, and instead slash spending while lifting taxes and interest rates,” as the annual report of the BIS “has for the past three years been warning of the dangers of a repeat of the depression.” Further, “Its latest annual report warned that countries such as Australia faced the possibility of a run on the currency, which would force interest rates to rise.” The BIS warned that, “a temporary respite may make it more difficult for authorities to take the actions that are necessary, if unpopular, to restore the health of the financial system, and may thus ultimately prolong the period of slow growth.”
Of immense import is the BIS warning that, “At the same time, government guarantees and asset insurance have exposed taxpayers to potentially large losses,” and explaining how fiscal packages posed significant risks, it said that, “There is a danger that fiscal policy-makers will exhaust their debt capacity before finishing the costly job of repairing the financial system,” and that, “There is the definite possibility that stimulus programs will drive up real interest rates and inflation expectations.” Inflation “would intensify as the downturn abated,” and the BIS “expressed doubt about the bank rescue package adopted in the US.”[35]
The BIS further warned of inflation, saying that, “The big and justifiable worry is that, before it can be reversed, the dramatic easing in monetary policy will translate into growth in the broader monetary and credit aggregates,” the BIS said. That will “lead to inflation that feeds inflation expectations or it may fuel yet another asset-price bubble, sowing the seeds of the next financial boom-bust cycle.”[36]
Major investors have also been warning about the dangers of inflation. Legendary investor Jim Rogers has warned of “a massive inflation holocaust.”[37] Investor Marc Faber has warned that, “The U.S. economy will enter ‘hyperinflation’ approaching the levels in Zimbabwe,” and he stated that he is “100 percent sure that the U.S. will go into hyperinflation.” Further, “The problem with government debt growing so much is that when the time will come and the Fed should increase interest rates, they will be very reluctant to do so and so inflation will start to accelerate.”[38]
Are We Entering A New Great Depression?
In 2007, it was reported that, “The Bank for International Settlements, the world's most prestigious financial body, has warned that years of loose monetary policy has fuelled a dangerous credit bubble, leaving the global economy more vulnerable to another 1930s-style slump than generally understood.” Further:The BIS, the ultimate bank of central bankers, pointed to a confluence a worrying signs, citing mass issuance of new-fangled credit instruments, soaring levels of household debt, extreme appetite for risk shown by investors, and entrenched imbalances in the world currency system.
[...] In a thinly-veiled rebuke to the US Federal Reserve, the BIS said central banks were starting to doubt the wisdom of letting asset bubbles build up on the assumption that they could safely be "cleaned up" afterwards – which was more or less the strategy pursued by former Fed chief Alan Greenspan after the dotcom bust.[39]
In 2008, the BIS again warned of the potential of another Great Depression, as “complex credit instruments, a strong appetite for risk, rising levels of household debt and long-term imbalances in the world currency system, all form part of the loose monetarist policy that could result in another Great Depression.”[40]
In 2008, the BIS also said that, “The current market turmoil is without precedent in the postwar period. With a significant risk of recession in the US, compounded by sharply rising inflation in many countries, fears are building that the global economy might be at some kind of tipping point,” and that all central banks have done “has been to put off the day of reckoning.”[41]
In late June of 2009, the BIS reported that as a result of stimulus packages, it has only seen “limited progress” and that, “the prospects for growth are at risk,” and further “stimulus measures won't be able to gain traction, and may only lead to a temporary pickup in growth.” Ultimately, “A fleeting recovery could well make matters worse.”[42]
The BIS has said, in softened language, that the stimulus packages are ultimately going to cause more damage than they prevented, simply delaying the inevitable and making the inevitable that much worse. Given the previous BIS warnings of a Great Depression, the stimulus packages around the world have simply delayed the coming depression, and by adding significant numbers to the massive debt bubbles of the world’s nations, will ultimately make the depression worse than had governments not injected massive amounts of money into the economy.
After the last Great Depression, Keynesian economists emerged victorious in proposing that a nation must spend its way out of crisis. This time around, they will be proven wrong. The world is a very different place now. Loose credit, easy spending and massive debt is what has led the world to the current economic crisis, spending is not the way out. The world has been functioning on a debt based global economy. This debt based monetary system, controlled and operated by the global central banking system, of which the apex is the Bank for International Settlements, is unsustainable. This is the real bubble, the debt bubble. When it bursts, and it will burst, the world will enter into the Greatest Depression in world history.
137 comments:
Happy Monday Ilargi, as I too am shocked at the recent uptick in 'Happy Talk' coming from the MSM.
The 'fundamentals' look none too impressive and every one of the 'sunny' predictions are pure fantasy based on consumers that are pulling money that doesn't exist out of their collective backsides.
The jobs cut from the economy are gone for good and they aren't coming back, which leaves us where, precisely?
For all the 'Happy Talk' this economy isn't coming back.
I know you don't need me to 'pat you on the back' but keep up the great work, reading TAE is the high point of my day.
6-8% growth! I have to say people are optimistic,summer is in the air,love is in the air,hope wafts the world and most importantly Growth fever is in the air-maybe they know some canadian central bank economist eh ;-)
Gegner,
Since you are a registered user, you can easily trash the extras. Just click on the little trash can, bottom left of your comments.
You know ilargi and all,the madness of real estate and optimism is not just left to the developed world. Here we face 3 days of powercuts each week,hence using my mobile,laptop is dead as a duck,water is being rationed, there appears to be an acute food shortage developing but real estate prices have been soaring,rents going up 15-20% across the board and i'm like wtf mate? Industry has been pretty hard hit as well. Our newspapers are way more honest then American ones, we are regularly served max keiser style analysis in our daily papers against the system,yesterday's oped was calling for a revolution even-but nothing much changes. The madness goes on, not a care in the world to make a change, just buy property eh? It can only go up!! Why worry, party hard. No wonder i'm drinking so much these days, makes me stay sane in an insane world.
VK, what country are you in?
VK
"maybe they know some canadian central bank economist eh ;-)"
Canada has been pilfering the "best and brightest" (as long as they also have some money) from around the world so maybe that's why we are so exceptional ;-) You obviously qualify in the bright category, so, if you also have the money, don't delay because you don't have much time left to get here before the doors shut.
Unfortunately, when the USA explodes they will probably take us with them one way or another.
Also, for what its worth, Lovelock says the rest of the world is going to burn up except Canada, the UK, and far-north Eurasia. The UK would be a pretty smelly lifeboat in his scenario. (BTW, I am not a Lovelock disciple or completely convinced at the specifics of his predictions) I hear gardens are growing well in Greenland now. I think Norway would be a good bet but I doubt the doors are open. (People talk of doomerism: Norway creates a huge seed vault on an island for the future. Should they be ridiculed?)
Lol, I reside in Nairobi, Kenya to those who are non regulars. I also studied in Melbourne, Australia for a few years. I'm a geek as well :)
VK said "3 days of powercuts each week,hence using my mobile,laptop is dead as a duck,water is being rationed, there appears to be an acute food shortage developing"
That sounds ominous for the rest of us...less power, less fodd, less water. If no power, how do you charge your mobile? Do you have some kind of generator?
Rumor (from yesterday),
It's interesting to me to contrast this in light of our concerns here that growing fiscal and eventually energetic and climate deficits will lead to stronger, more authoritarian central governments, as the centre tries to hold together. The Canadian government has never been a particularly strong central government, and the current party in power is actively attempt to weaken it even further, at least in the sense of the ability to pursue social welfare. It should be noted of course that the current government is highly secretive and authoritarian in other areas, particularly criminal law and foreign affairs.
I think Canada is in a somewhat different position with regard to centralization. I don't think the centre will hold here, although that in no way precludes authoritarian leanings (perhaps at the provincial level). The country is too large and horizontally strung-out along the border to be governable as a unit under circumstances of limited money and energy.
I think fission is inevitable, and some parts may be subsumed into a 'Greater US'. I find the notion rather horrifying, but I think the stage is already being set. Another National Energy Plan (like Trudeau's) could be enough to push the west away. The mostly empty vastness of beautiful northern Ontario is a very clear demarcation between the two halves of the country. Quebec nationalism is likely to see a resurgence as well, as the tensions will be back in sharp relief once there isn't enough to go around.
For anyone who's interested in cultural distinctions in North America, I would strongly recommend Joel Garreau's book The Nine Nations of North America. It was written in the 1980s and is out of print, but I managed to get one second-hand from Amazon a while back. I found it very insightful indeed.
Anon @12:59 (yesterday),
Karl still think we can avoid the majority of the pain somehow through American ingenuity. He bats about a 90% in my book. His analysis is flawless. His predictions are a bit scattered. He calls for a depression -> The Great Depression -> Panic of 1873 -> Maybe a depression, etc. It really just depends on how bearish he is feeling that day.
I agree that Karl's fundamental analysis is great, and also agree with your statement about is predictions depending on how he feels that day. That's a shame IMO, as it means his timing leaves a lot to be desired. If he just followed his analysis to its logical conclusion, accepted the implications and stuck with them despite the ebb and flow of social mood, he would have the right idea. He still has a lot to offer though, if you screen out some of the less edifying personal comments.
VK, I thought I remembered you mentioning Kenya before, but I didn't know you were still there. I lived in Kenya for a few years, mostly in Kisumu.
That country seems to have so much potential, but I think population pressure is causing shortages of resources. The water shortages are very worrying, even Kisumu had that problem when I was there. I don't know all the facts, but it seems that either Kisumu is not allowed to use the water from Lake Victoria, or that the development of their water system is deliberately held back to prevent them from using the lake. And didn't I hear something about Ethiopia building a dam on the Omo River, the source for Lake Turkana?
Is there any promising news from Kenya? Lately, all I've heard is bad.
That sounds like a interesting book Stoneleigh.In my younger days as a Health Physics tech,I traveled extensively in the USA.The differences in political and societal outlook were cast in sharp relief to me,a young man from the coast ranges in Oregon....
I think maybe they are passing around a pipe full of "green shoots".One good sign of how desperate for good news are the powers that be is that air time is given to those who are overly optimistic...
They might as well give up on trying to "track"that tarp money...its gone....
I think we are seeing the beginning of a permanent,semi-offical population of homeless...this is the beginnings of a trend that will have the effect of reminding everyone just how easy everything they have can disappear....and become a new American shame..
off to keep myself from "the camps"...
snuffy
Greyzone (from yesterday),
Final point - any resource that is not infinite, is, by definition, rationed in some manner. Health care is no exception. The only difference being that in the US it is rationed by price. Why do we do it that way? Because the majority in the US have been brainwashed into thinking that the "free market" is the answer to everything. Don't get me wrong, the free market (when it really is free) is great for lots of things.
But it's also the wrong answer when your question is not "how do I maximize profits?" because that is what free markets do. If your question is how do I maximize redundancy and resilency (maybe for the electric grid) then the free market is the LAST thing you want to allow near that problem.
The key to deciding how to handle anything is to find the right questions about it. So the question, in the realm of health care, is do we want to maximize profits? If yes, then stick with what we've got and let tens of millions suffer the consequences and stop pretending to be compassionate. If no, then the answer is something other than free markets.
This is a very important point and you put it very well. The applicability to the electrical grid is particularly relevant, as you point out.
"History says that given the depth of the downturn, GDP should grow at a 6% to 8% rate over the next year.. "
I am continually amazed, even fascinated by two things.
1 - How any one person can play golf, a game of extreme mental and physical articulation, as well as Mr. Tiger Woods.
2 - How Wall Streeters, journalists, and political pundits can live in a world and write in a way so completely removed from reality! Do they ever leave their ivory pedestals?
This town of 60,000 (shrunken from about a peak of 80,000) is contracting almost weekly! Foreclosures are an epidemic, all the manufacturing and most service jobs are gone (excepting the hospital and the university.)
Abandoned homes, becoming derelict, line the back streets and even some of the "front" ones.
For sale signs everywhere, increasing numbers of yards full of stuff at "rummage sales".
A sudden rebound next year! From what source? Even if we were unaware of the mass criminally expanded debt and the rapidly depleting energy sources, we can see with our own eyes that things are accelerating--downward--at the 32ft/sec/sec rate!
back to snapping green beans...
Greyzone, you are rising fast on my list of reads!
Don't know much about economics, myself, but I do know that the day that Krugman and Cramer agree that we're out of the woods, it's time to RUN! Just like some of the not-lamented trolls here, no analysis of any kind, just "I think" "I feel," "I'm sure," etc.
Re: Healthcare
Poor Robert Reich. He's "troubled" that Obama had to bribe one of the big players to support the pale and ineffective version of "reform" being touted. You have to laugh at the man's naivete.
On a more serious note, how can anyone who's trying to imagine the future (notice I didn't say predict), not factor in access to healthcare, particularly US residents? It seems logical to assume it won't be available. Given that, why not move somewhere where it may be more accessible? I'm amazed more people haven't considered this. A partial answer, and certainly a necessary one, is to take good physical care of oneself, as recommended here. Doesn't quite seem sufficient, however.
"The tax and spend, create money from thin air, never ending stimulus, thank god for government, crowd does not get what is happening. The bubbles ARE THEIR DOING, as are the subsequent crashes, as are the other events that tend to follow times of economic upheaval. They don’t understand that if you outsource all your productivity, then you will all be left to perform services on one another and there will be no productivity and no capital generation here at home, it will all happen overseas."
This is what Karl misses Stoneleigh. Our productive base has been largely outsourced. Our ability to pay back out debts depleted. This will be a very long, very painful process since capital is formed very slow and departs, or is destroyed, very quickly.
As Karl also notes, investors won't form capital in the USA, or bring it here, if the rule of law is not respected. As it is, it is not adhered to here, so what incentive is there for even forming new capital?
Karl needs to be a bit more consistent in his calls and a bit less prone to the irrational and the emotional.
"..Yes, history says so. That's one for the history books. Making up stuff like that must be highly satisfactory. It takes a lot of extra effort, of course, but you may well arrive at entirely new heights. And there will always be people who believe you. I can't even say I'm sure I understand it.."
Ilargi's soundbite today about the Wall Screed Journal's flight of fantasy reminds me of the quote attributed to KKKarl Christian Rove.
Rove being the Incarnation of Joseph Goebbels and the WSJ being the blowup love doll of the Criminal Classes' passionate financial intentions, this explains a lot of the perverse 'reasoning' of the MSM in general.
"(Rove) said that guys like me (Ron Suskind) were "in what we (Rove) called the reality-based community," which he defined as people who "believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality."
I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism.
He cut me off.
(Rove) "That's not the way the world really works anymore."
He continued "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out.
We're history's actors ... and you (The Little Prole People), all of you, will be left to just study what we do. "
The Vampire Squid are deranged and faux lucid at the same time, apparently these are not mutually exclusive 'realities'.
.
Greetings kisumu anon! Small world indeed :) It's not all bad, we still have some of the best weather in the world, sunny skies nearly all year round. There has been some recent progress in infrastructure, the chinese have taken to building roads and the economy has been quite resilient though I don't know for how much longer though? Quite a few tourists from europe coming in as well. This country somehow works, no idea how though?! @ bluebird, power goes on monday, thursday and saturday for 12 hours each so the mobile can last. We also have a generator in the compound where I stay which is switched on at night mainly, as well as a borehole for water,so the water shortage has not been felt as acutely. Though i've had a lot of experience with water shortages where we stayed previously-a real hassle!
Rick James (from yesterday),
Concerning the turning of the maker stoneleigh expects the market to tank this fall. However, since the main thrust of the stimulus is for now until next year, isn't it possible we could see a flat economy and stock market until a out the middle of next year?
I think the chances of the rally lasting that long are minimal. It isn't the stimulus that's driving the rally, but the temporary perception that the government will eat people's losses ad infinitum. The government is trying to buy back confidence with smoke and mirrors tricks, but that only works until reality catches up. My best guess for when the decline will resume is still this fall, but I'll let you know if my view of the timing changes in the meantime.
"..investors won't form capital in the USA, or bring it here, if the rule of law is not respected. As it is, it is not adhered to here, so what incentive is there for even forming new capital?"
"If the rule of law is not respected" is a key concept overlooked in the orgy of lies that the U.S. has devolved into with such gusto.
Foreign investors will have no confidence their assets will be honored, much less increased with interest, because of the Culture of Lies that is essentially the core value of America now.
The U.S. not only doesn't pay it's debts, if you give it even one more nickle, it will steal that too.
An example, the U.S. doesn't even make enough shoes to supply it's own population.
A shoeless society, what a vision.
The machinery to make shoes and the skill set to make shoes is gone. To redesign, finance and re-train the populous to make it's own shoes is a non starter. It won't happen from internal motivations, not enough profits to be had.
When the world stops honoring our demand for cheap imports, shoes for instance, it's going to be a long emergency walk home.
Ilargi, from yesterday: "First of all, I'm not trying to push Obama's plan on anyone. I don't know what the original said, but before the ink was dry, it was already so diluted that it wouldn't do any good. "
There is; or might be anyway, ONE benefit to the legislation, at least.
Having moved the Congress, and country, to accept one bill providing major change (supposedly) to our health care "system" (don't laugh so hard) -
it would, then, be somewhat easier to get everyone on board for "improvements" in it; "fixing" some mistakes in the last version.
I think ANY movement on the subject would be helpful- and enable easier change in the future.
It's kind of the "HEY!" you yell at your sheep, to get their attention, before instructing the leadersheep about where you want them to go.
Maybe.
a clarification from Stoneleigh if possible on a point.
If the Federal bond market is not yet ready to 'dislocate' (collapse) because it will still be seen as a 'flight to safety' haven in the coming Autumn collapse of equities, what's to stop the Treasury and Fed from continuing to essentially facilitate the financing of endless debt by having the Fed buy Treasury bond issues through the Autumn to paper over the mess?
Isn't a bond market collapse the only thing that would check this flimflam scam behavior by the Treasury and Fed?
How long can the Fed buy the Treasury's monetary barf and get away with it? Does this stop in the Autumn also or continue for a while?
~~Puzzled~~
Rick James,
This is what Karl misses Stoneleigh. Our productive base has been largely outsourced. Our ability to pay back out debts depleted. This will be a very long, very painful process since capital is formed very slow and departs, or is destroyed, very quickly.
As Karl also notes, investors won't form capital in the USA, or bring it here, if the rule of law is not respected. As it is, it is not adhered to here, so what incentive is there for even forming new capital?
Karl needs to be a bit more consistent in his calls and a bit less prone to the irrational and the emotional.
Agreed. It's important to understanding herding behaviour in order to avoid falling into it. Emotions are very catching, but most people don't realize they are prone to picking up and reflecting the prevailing social mood. The most intellectual they are, the more they resist the notion that emotions play an important role. The facts are interpreted in light of strong shared emotions, and elaborate rationalizations of those facts are created in order to justify actions based on the emotional backdrop. People don't realize they are doing this.
"Cities Tolerate Homeless Camps "
Ah. Better than forcing them out, yes.
Also unquestionably, the first steps On The Road To Rio.
Just another fact of life.
@ Anon 10:06:
Thanks for dredging up that quote which explains the core belief of the Straussian cabal that has taken over our system.
I don't have the list handy, but I recall that Leo Strauss' disciples basically saturated the GWB administration.
Not sure what the deal is with the current administration, but their basic strategies seem largely the same, if a bit more subtle.
Stoneleigh said:
"It isn't the stimulus that's driving the rally, but the temporary perception that the government will eat people's losses ad infinitum."
This market has been almost entirely driven by black box trading/HFT vis a vis GS and other PD's who have been recycling dollars for treasuries into the stock market at the behest of the Fed. Retail has more or less stood on the sidelines subsequent to the March lows. Look at the leaders in the rally. All the crap names like Citibank, BofA, AIG, etc. There's not one thing organic about what's going on here. Not one.
>>As Karl also notes, investors won't form capital in the USA, or bring it here, if the rule of law is not respected.
Just how many times have those investors been fleeced in Argentina but still come back for more? It's got to be four times since Peron.
And Chavez is on round three: first PDVSA, then the Western majors, now China and (maybe) Petrobras. At last report Petrobras was deciding it had better uses for its capital.
Surely the US can do at least as well as Argentina.
anon 12:44 am from yesterday said:
"Could you provide some insight. As a US citizen, if I get sick while in Canada, will I get free health care? "
You would receive care but would be billed for it although rates would probably be somewhat lower than what you would pay in the US. There have been problems where people leave without paying. I don't know how this gets resolved, whether collections are pursued across the border or not. There have also been problems with fraudulent health cards where Americans obtain a Canadian health care card and use it to access services for free. I recall awhile back that Ontario had more health cards than citizens. There were also instances of Canadians lending or renting their cards to non-citizens. The provinces have been improving the security of the cards in response to this. In the case of pharmaceuticals, there were instances of bus tours specifically for the purpose of filling prescriptions. And, of course, internet pharmacies based in Canada do a big business with the US.
Funny how lots of people south of 49 like to access our system but fight tooth and nail against a similar system down there.
Puzzled,
If the Federal bond market is not yet ready to 'dislocate' (collapse) because it will still be seen as a 'flight to safety' haven in the coming Autumn collapse of equities, what's to stop the Treasury and Fed from continuing to essentially facilitate the financing of endless debt by having the Fed buy Treasury bond issues through the Autumn to paper over the mess?
Isn't a bond market collapse the only thing that would check this flimflam scam behavior by the Treasury and Fed?
How long can the Fed buy the Treasury's monetary barf and get away with it? Does this stop in the Autumn also or continue for a while?
That will probably continue, even as a flight to safety coincides with the next phase of the decline. I am expecting the market cascade to far outweigh 'printing' however, so that the net effect will still be monetary contraction.
The Fed buying treasuries will eventually precipitate a bond market dislocation, as the Fed will be forced to buy more and more. Once you climb on that particular treadmill, it's very difficult (if not impossible) to get off again. International buyers will eventually go on strike. So many countries will be trying to borrow to fill huge gaps in their budgets and lenders will be increasingly unwilling to lend to any of them. That equals very high interest rates, not imminently as the flight to safety will drop rates further first, but perhaps within a year.
The ultimate Catch-22: No home, no job. But wait, it gets even uglier than that. No good credit, no good job--the policy of many companies . That’s the reality in America 2009. Increasingly, the financial noose is tightened around the neck of the populace--the Apache torture of tying a wet piece of leather around the neck while the desert sun dries the leather and slowly asphyxiates the victim comes to mind. I am not sure if a no-credit equal no-job policy is yet in effect; but given the capacity for deranged greed and forced conformity by economic strangulation, I am sure the idea is lurking in the offices of corporate America waiting to be unleashed.
As far as economic predictions by those who are shrills for the banking industry, should we even care? I give those types about as much respect and attention as I would a snotty, glittering real-estate agent flicking cigarette ashes out of their fancy new Mercedes.
Once again in today’s post Ilargi offers up another prediction of economic collapse. I have to hand to Ilargi and Stomelegh, throughout the shifting sands of the economic crisis they both have remained remarkably consistent with their message.
So I admit to admiring the boldness and prognosticative tenacity of both Ilargi and Stoneleigh--even if I am skeptical of their predicted outcome.
Because after all, “ when the days shorten, when temperatures start dropping and that bad moon rises above a pale horizon” the spotlight of the moon in the dark night of the fall will be shining directly on Ilargi and Stoneleigh’s predictions of economic collapse.
Aesthete
Stoneleigh:
I would have to disagree with your assumption that Canada is a loose association of territories and will easily break up.
Born and raised here,I have been from one side to the other. In Canada you can honestly say that no matter where you are you know you are in Canada. That may be a little different in Quebec (you feel like you are staying in a cousins house).
Our history has always had these challenges and it seems every time we as a nation rise to the occassion. And I think it is getting better. I find that the new immigrants that I know are love the country as much as me.
Though not as outwardly patriotic as other countries, I think you will find that underneath there is a deep sense of committment and willingness to defend it. I think our history proves this.
That being said I believe our greatest danger lies in the unpredictable future of the land south of us.
Ontario
Frank - capital will still be available, but at a much, much higher interest rate. Do you see the debt consumed U.S. economy being able to sustain interest rates double or triple what they are now? That is what is going to be required to attract capital here in the future. None of the countries you mentioned were as indebted as the United States. Also, those countries, especially Venezuela, have something the world needs (in the case of Venezuela, oil). Investors are going to be more willing to tolerate flim-flam when they need something from you. The oil market needs Venezuela's 100 billion barrels of oil. What does the United States have, that the world needs? Our main export is worthless debt, and pretty much everything else manufactured here can be made elsewhere.
See the problem with your, and Karl D's, analysis is that America is completely fungible, from a production standpoint, with any other country. What set America apart from other countries was that we had a well developed system of property rights and legal system to defend the same. When that is gone, what is there to attract capital here? Let's see:
1) Declining test scores, indicate a workforce in decline, except for the fact that we continue to attract skilled labor (a trend I might add is slowly reversing).
2) High labor costs. Something neither of the other countries you named have.
3) Ton's and ton's of unserviceable debt.
CA (from yesterday),
Leo: This is the common view, that all the budget deficits will lead to higher rates and inflation. But go back to read that quarterly comment from Hoisington Investment Management. Also, if you factor in the pension crisis, the end game will likely be a long bout of deflation. That is why monetary authorities are desperately trying to reflate the bubble again, and again.
CA: From my understanding, you believe that rates will rise following the bond dislocation. How would you account for the disparity in the perceived outcome?
I agree with Leo that it is deflation we are facing (although it wasn't clear to me from the quoted passage how he defines deflation).
Initially I would expect interest rates to fall to record lows on a flight to safety once the decline resumes. The dollar should appreciate significantly at the same time, but both effects will be temporary. IMO a bond market dislocation happens later, when many countries are trying to borrow and international lenders become much more risk averse. They will demand a very high rate on any lending they are prepared to countenance, for far of default rather than inflation. This will squeeze government finances enormously, as well as precipitating a wave of debt default throughout the economy that will hugely aggravate deflation.
Ontario,
I would have to disagree with your assumption that Canada is a loose association of territories and will easily break up.
Born and raised here,I have been from one side to the other. In Canada you can honestly say that no matter where you are you know you are in Canada. That may be a little different in Quebec (you feel like you are staying in a cousins house).
Our history has always had these challenges and it seems every time we as a nation rise to the occassion. And I think it is getting better. I find that the new immigrants that I know are love the country as much as me.
Though not as outwardly patriotic as other countries, I think you will find that underneath there is a deep sense of committment and willingness to defend it. I think our history proves this.
I very much hope you are right, as I am very fond of this country as well. I have one brother in BC and another in Newfoundland, and the independence movement in Newfoundland is apparently quite significant.
My concern is that during large-scale economic contractions, larger political entities tend to break up into smaller ones, especially if there are linguistic, religious or cultural distinctions between different regions. I see this happening in Europe as well, only in Europe the resulting entities would be very much smaller than regions here.
Central authority may hold sway over much smaller regions than before, but it may hold those areas it still controls in a much tighter grip than previously.
Stoneleigh: In my opinion, you underestimate Karl Deninger. He knows what will happen and why. You and he are in agreement on why, how, and largely when, although I believe he thinks the dust settles at 50% of GDP with societal disruption en route, and you seem to envision a complete societal collapse. I believe that Karl tempers his message both to consider new information, the vagaries of change, and the fact that systems often outlive their expectations. But I also believe that Karl tempers his message to make it palatable to a broader spectrum. You preach outright doom, and therefore have a very insular group. Karl does not, and therefore reaches a larger audience. And, of course, you approach from the political left, and Karl approaches from a more Libertarian view. But in both cases, you each help people understand (1) that they need to raise cash, (2) that that cash needs to be extremely liquid if systemic weakness begins to manifest, (3) that all debt--particularly variable rate debt--needs to be paid down immediately, (4) that an owned home only makes sense if you own it outright or plan to die in it, (5) that the capital markets will collapse, (6) that life in the industrialized world will not be the same thereafter, and (7) one should take the "prepared living" steps necessary to deal with the societal disruptions caused by a credit system collapse in a just-in-time world. I'd say that 80% of your messages are consistent. And, frankly, I think that Karl is more accurate in the degree of how bad things will get--although I am saving, saving, saving money, food, medicine, and other resources just in case!
" some parts may be subsumed into a 'Greater US'."
I've been watching English Canada become an American cultural colony all my life.
The biggest difference between English Canadians and Americans is the extent of naval-gazing. Canadians are maybe too introspective, while Americans could use a bit more introspection (I've noticed this in my close American relatives as well)
I have often wondered about the appeal of American pop-culture to the rest of the world (I once shared an apartment with an Iraqi-exile who would criticize US foreign policy regularly while religiously tuning in Seinfeld and other American culture) It appears to be a combination of the eternal optimism and materialism resulting from a society that has never had to face limits until now.
Can the eternally optimistic American pop-culture survive this crash? Without this cultural weapon, it would be difficult to hold the interest of the rest of the world. If some parts of Canada were to become more closely tied to the US I would expect it to be the result of practical trade considerations (or possibly overt military conquest over resources)
My biggest fear now is (eventually)direct military action over resources. Does this seem a realistic scenario in the years ahead? As the American empire loses power overseas they will surely focus on their back yard?
" Quebec nationalism is likely to see a resurgence as well, as the tensions will be back in sharp relief once there isn't enough to go around."
"For anyone who's interested in cultural distinctions in North America, I would strongly recommend Joel Garreau's book The Nine Nations of North America."
I've checked the library and can get this by interlibary loan. I have feet in both the Anglo-celtic and French cultures so it is an area I find interesting. My own observations of isolated rural communities are that you are more likely to encounter serious violence in English/Irish/Scottish communities than in French communities, the latter generally having a more cooperative culture. I tend to recommend to younger colleagues to learn french and move to Quebec, because unless Quebec is threatened militarily over resources, most likely to maintain a cohesive society in difficult times. Just my opinion.
He knows what will happen and why. You and he are in agreement on why, how, and largely when, although I believe he thinks the dust settles at 50% of GDP with societal disruption en route, and you seem to envision a complete societal collapse. I believe that Karl tempers his message both to consider new information, the vagaries of change, and the fact that systems often outlive their expectations. But I also believe that Karl tempers his message to make it palatable to a broader spectrum. You preach outright doom, and therefore have a very insular group. Karl does not, and therefore reaches a larger audience.
And, frankly, I think that Karl is more accurate in the degree of how bad things will get--although I am saving, saving, saving money, food, medicine, and other resources just in case!
Poster, do you realize that you are being inconsistent? First of all Karl never has a clear message of where he think things are headed. He is constantly vacillating across alternatives.
Secondly, you said that he tempers his message to reach a broader audience, but then say that he is more accurate. How can someone be more accurate when they intentionally dampen their prognostications, as you yourself are saying. Sorry, but that does not pass the stink test.
Lastly, Karl is not predicting a 50% cut in GDP. I am and apparently I&S agree. SO at least get your facts straight. Karl oscillates between 20-30% decline. To me this is overly optimistic since the depression of the 30's brough about a 30% decline in GDP. We are more dependent on credit now and are burdened with almost twice as much credit, as compared proportionally, as we were back then. When asked how we avoid a massive haircut, the message was that American ingenuity would allow us to get through things (paraphrasing, but this is roughly what I understand from him - I listen to his talk show). My question is how does American ingenuity pay down debt. I cannot get an answer to this from anyone, and yes, I have been hearing this from a lot of people. No, I am not a doom and gloomer like many here.
Stoneleigh: "My concern is that during large-scale economic contractions, larger political entities tend to break up into smaller ones, especially if there are linguistic, religious or cultural distinctions between different regions. I see this happening in Europe as well, only in Europe the resulting entities would be very much smaller than regions here.
Central authority may hold sway over much smaller regions than before, but it may hold those areas it still controls in a much tighter grip than previously."
I am also very fond of Canada, and tell my usaco neighbors that Canadians are really the only grownups on the continent. Maybe several continents. :-)
I have a really really serious suggestion for Canada- which I'd love for you to pass on.
Your statement above is absolutely correct. You left out one aspect of it, though- probably because it is obvious: the dissociation of parts is usually accompanied by violence, even war, which stimulates hate- which can last forever.
Canada is, I think, intelligent enough to avoid this. It would NOT be easy- but it might be done.
Here's how: dissociate NOW; in a friendly neighborly fashion, maintaining all commercial ties, open borders, and shared defense. Actually encourage regions to apply for their own autonomy; and basically grant it as the default action. With a smile.
Become a collection of good neighbors, rather than a forced federation. Become what the EU tried to be. I think this would actually decrease the quantity and severity of the joint Canadian headaches quotient.
Man, I'd love to see that happen. And, it would leave the door open for the new autonomous regions to re-merge; if they want to some day. Say so, upfront. "hey, if we find we don't like it- we can join up again."
No violence (ok, much less); and maybe really less hate.
So, am I a crazy dreamer, or what? :-)
ok, why pay down debt?
Wouldn't the money that is currently paid towards credit cards, be better spent on buying extra canned goods, more attic insulation, and extra food & straw for the goats and chickens? Debts should be paid, but preparing for the future is important too.
Anon @ 12:21 - Karl also thinks that the system as it exists now, can exist. I am here to tell you it cannot. The money as credit system is at capacity. The system of government by special interest oligarchs, at least as it presently exist, is going to be stretched very thin. I don't think KD holds these views.
Now don't get me wrong, I listen to and respect him deeply. He is one of the first reads in the morning. However, his predictions are somewhat erratic based on mood and emotion and not based on any change in information. As I mentioned earlier, he has vascillated between Depression -> Great Depression -> Panic of 1873 -> Maybe a Depression. That is too wild a swing in sentiment to be accounted for by changing information, especially since said information continues to deteriorate.
@A 10:24
"An example, the U.S. doesn't even make enough shoes to supply it's own population.
A shoeless society, what a vision."
Shoes for industry, shoes for the dead.
Shoeless Joe Jackson.
Say it ain't so - Joe.
Say it ain't so - Ben, Hank, Timmy, O-nan.
K Elehmenopy said...
"My biggest fear now is (eventually)direct military action over resources. Does this seem a realistic scenario in the years ahead?"
In my opinion ... NO!
Ask yourself ... how will they hold it without going bankrupt?
It would be worst than Iraq and Afgan combined.
Have they caught the person sabotaging the gas lines in Alberta?
I rest my case.
jal
Anon 12:21 - Oh and by the way I disagree with Stoneleigh that society is going to collapse. I don't see Canada disassociating into member units. Neither do I see that for the United States. I think my views fall somewhere in between.
I think, we maintain our social and political integrity (Karl Denninger's argument). I think we will have a 40-50% haircut in GDP which will mean a huge cut in the standard of living (Stoneleigh's argument). Karl, apparently disagrees with my number. Fine, but until someone can explain to me how we have the same level of decline as the Great Depression when we have more debt and more dependent on it, and debt is what caused the last depression, then I will give up the ghost.
Wholesale inventories fall...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aR68_99V5amk
"A record drawdown of inventories in the second quarter may have set the stage for a return to growth in the last half of the year as demand stabilizes. "
Ok, look. They have GOT to have professional comedians writing this stuff!!
"as demand stabilizes!" OMG!!! Is there a psuedo Nobel for Economic Humor? Let's start one!
@ Ontario 11:42 AM
Around Halloween 1995 I remember watching the Quebec secession vote fail by a mere 500 ballots.
That seems an awfully close run thing to my mind.
Bluebird: "ok, why pay down debt?
Wouldn't the money that is currently paid towards credit cards, be better spent on buying extra canned goods, more attic insulation, and extra food & straw for the goats and chickens? Debts should be paid, but preparing for the future is important too."
Yep. On the practical side; does anyone imagine the card companies can afford to sue everybody NOW defaulting?
Confession time. I'm already doing this.
It came down to- pay Chase; who had jumped interest up to 28% (from 7.5%) - for no good reason- or pay the mechanic who keeps my vehicles running.
Not that hard to decide. So I set up criteria- when they screw me; I respond in kind.
You can write them a nice note- which will help if it ever gets to court. "Dear Scum; I'm not paying you a dime. Until you put my credit card account back to exactly the terms I agreed to. Let me know when you do. And; I will never pay you the interest you are currently claiming; so take that off the account, too. Yours in a businesslike fashion; Bluebird."
You can add a smiley face.
Of course- you have to get the family into the habit of NOT answering the phone; ever. Just let the machine get it.
For me- so far, so good. (passing the 40th storey on the way down) :-)
"An example, the U.S. doesn't even make enough shoes to supply it's own population.
A shoeless society, what a vision."
Well, and don't forget Doug Adams Shoe Event Horizon!
http://hitchhikers.wikia.com/wiki/Shoe_Event_Horizon
Pretty clearly, Golem Sucks is already there; impossible for them to do anything but bet on non-existent enterprises. Not really gonna work, in the long run.
@Rick James
If Argentina was Venezuela, I might buy your argument. As it is, Argentina has beef and soybeans, two of the many things that America also has to export, as does many another country. Why anyone would send money there with the Kirchners in charge completely escapes me.
Venezuela does have oil. That would be worth taking a flyer every twenty years or so. OTOH, this is the same guy, Hugo Chavez, going for the hat trick. Three times in ten years. That's just dumb.
Also contrary to the religious beliefs of some folks here, the US still manufactures quite a bit. I've bought all my farm equipment strictly on price and quality. Except for the sawmill that I picked up in Quebec City, it's all US made.
Anon @12:21,
As I have said, I find Karl's analysis very good. I think his patriotism makes him far more optimistic about America's prospects than I am, as if he can't quite bring himself to imagine that the US could suffer the fate of every empire that has gone before it. I simply don't buy American exceptionalism myself. Karl seems to interpret this as a express wish on our part to see the US fail, which is not the case at all. We are simply trying to be objective and to put events in historical context.
Greenpa, Thanks, that makes a whole lot of sense.
KLMNOP,
My biggest fear now is (eventually)direct military action over resources. Does this seem a realistic scenario in the years ahead? As the American empire loses power overseas they will surely focus on their back yard?
This is certainly a possibility. Alberta's oil and Quebec's plentiful electric power are likely to be coveted.
I tend to recommend to younger colleagues to learn french and move to Quebec, because unless Quebec is threatened militarily over resources, most likely to maintain a cohesive society in difficult times. Just my opinion.
I agree that Quebec will likely be more cohesive, also it could also end up giving immigrants are hard time. In contractionary times the 'us versus them' dynamic becomes much more powerful. We had a small foretaste of this in the Quebec context when Jacques Parizeau blamed immigrants for defeating the last independence referendum. If you are 'pure laine' you will be fine. Others may not fare so well.
Denninger has really been angry lately. I think it's settling in what's going to happen, and he's quite upset. Latest screed...
http://tinyurl.com/m5vy2w
Stoneleigh said - "I simply don't buy American exceptionalism myself. Karl seems to interpret this as a express wish on our part to see the US fail..."
Me either!
American exceptionalism! ;-) Another "ism." I don't buy any of them, Fashit-ism, commie-ism, any of them. And I would suggest that folks get out of any of those boxes called isms and just try to think logically and without the "ism" bias.
Look, I love my Indiana home and feel priviledged to have lived most of my life better than 99% of those in the history of the world. But it was mostly just my GOOD FORTUNE!
People are people everywhere, as I see it. How am I different from a guitar playing electrician in Ontario... in Mexico... or Bangladesh for that matter.
The U.S. has a good constitution and some improved basic set of admendments, etc. which were working pretty well until the criminal Wall St. and corporate moneychangers got control over the political system.
As far as this comparison of I&S / Karl D, I think the latter has a less than complete understanding of our energy situation which will, during and after the collapse play a vital role, IMHO!
Rick James:
If I recall correctly (and it is possible that I do not), the 70% of GDP from Karl Denninger is a reflection of what GDP would have been without the extraordinary amount of borrowing. Assuming that no new borrowing occurs, you start at 70. From there you deduct debt service from past borrowing and then lost GDP due to the inefficiencies caused by the recession/depression itself. So I read Karl's figures to be consistent with yours and Stoneleigh's.
Like I said, I think you are all in material agreement. I just think that Stoneleigh breaks the bad news all at once, and Karl metes it out in more palatable doses. Read the threads that he "stickies" (and presumably considers more important) and you'll see that they are the pessimistic ones.
So if China doesn't pick up the tab we get depression full bore and if the Treasury picks up the tab we end up in the land of gibbering default. I guess the only question I gots left now is why, after CCR, do you bother posting Bruce Springsteen. I can see the CCR for the soppy enjoyment and sentimental emotionality of aged former 60's daytrippers but to pander that way and as well attempt to add Credence to the universe of slack jawed pseudo individualism with that cover by B Springsteen is just too much, man. Truly!
1964 Revisited
Coy Ote:
Just to be clear, I am not criticizing Stoneleigh. Her voice is invaluable. My sole point is to say that I consider KD and Stoneleigh as being in material agreement as to what the future holds, although her vision being even less optimistic than his. Whether anyone agrees with me or not is immaterial--what is important is that both receive continuing support for their efforts.
Greenpa,
You left out one aspect of it, though- probably because it is obvious: the dissociation of parts is usually accompanied by violence, even war, which stimulates hate- which can last forever.
Canada is, I think, intelligent enough to avoid this. It would NOT be easy- but it might be done.
Here's how: dissociate NOW; in a friendly neighborly fashion, maintaining all commercial ties, open borders, and shared defense. Actually encourage regions to apply for their own autonomy; and basically grant it as the default action. With a smile.
Become a collection of good neighbors, rather than a forced federation. Become what the EU tried to be. I think this would actually decrease the quantity and severity of the joint Canadian headaches quotient.
The civilized divorce of Czechoslovakia is a case in point. Belgium might achieve the same thing, if it's lucky, although there is already significant animosity.
I can't see Canada going for dissolution in advance, as it's already a mouse in bed with an elephant, so to speak. Dissolution would make that relationship even more unequal, and would leave Eastern Canada very vulnerable in energy terms. I can see an eastern energy grab, along the lines of the hated NEP, in our future, and I think the resentment it would spawn would be huge. The west still hasn't got over the last one.
Stoneleigh,
Really appreciate your taking the time to participate in the comments. It puts the quality through the roof.
As a small-scale grass-based farmer, I'd love to hear more about your farm efforts
Thanks to you and Ilargi for your invaluable work.
http://finance.yahoo.com/
Look at the news cited on this site. This is how a crash is started. By planting the seeds of doubt in a fickle trading populace. Now that I am starting to see some more light given to the bad news and to reality, it seems more likely that I was wrong about the market timing and I&S right.
That video of Elizabeth Warren (bless her well intentioned, pro consumer, academic heart) seems to demonstrate that no one of influence is listening to her (or Barofsky, who actually has subpoena power).
Were these watchdog/ oversight panels simply a weak and temporary appeasement? None seem to have any real power.
Re: the formation on Ginnie Mae...
"Ginnie’s growth is a by-product of the FHA’s spectacular growth. The FHA now insures $560 billion of mortgages—quadruple the amount in 2006."
This is a return to sub prime lending and lax underwriting.
Now we have the added negative of declining home values, increasing unemployment, job loss and lower wages.
So the Big Boys know all this is unsustainable, right?
In the words of Mr. Celente; " The govt has an equity position in what was once private enterprise."
So is this simply a set up for huge tax increases on the middle class?
Ilargi,
My impression is that the entire stock market run up is led by the equities. And the equities are rising because the banks themselves are pushing their stock prices up with the same exact money that Bernanke and company have shoved at them to "stabilize" them.
So there isn't even really a stock market rebound here. It's all fake, driven by computerized trading from the very people who stand to gain the most by pumping their own stocks. Of course this time we at least see them pumping their own stock instead of some soon-to-be-dead fake high tech "startup", like we saw back in 2001.
Anyway, do you see it significantly otherwise? I think it was Denninger who noted that only a tiny amount of cash has come out of money market funds back into the market. In other words, the investors are all still scared.
Stoneleigh, if you visit family in BC, please consider drinks with your western readers.
Cheers.
Ruben,
My brother is has spent the last couple of years in Castlegar. I don't know whether I'll end up with the time to travel that far, but if I do I'll let the readers know :)
anon: 1:26 - No problem. My comment was not aimed at anyone in particular anyway.
"Whether anyone agrees with me or not is immaterial.."
My sentiments as well.
Sometimes a pair of heads works better than one, when the resonance of a smooth complement exists. It happened historically with Lewis and Clark for example. (whether one approves of their mission or not)
I suspect that positive bounce-things-off-you affirmation is the case with I & S.
Perhaps Karl D, who is obviously very bright, could be even more effective if he could find a smooth working complement to offset his emotional tendencies and single-minded approach.
Click and Clack also come to mind! ;-)
Third Coast Re the last separatist referendum in Quebec.
Agreed it was a close one. In a way the occasional threats by Quebec are what makes Canada stronger. Quebec IMHO is the model of how the provinces were originally set up. A (con)federation of regions that had autonomy but acted in concert with the federal government on matters of national importance i.e. trade, defence, transportation.
Orignally the provinces collected their own income tax. At the end of WWI the feds started doing it and you know the rest of the story.
Quebec is the only province that collects it's own income tax I believe. As well they have their own vested pension plan.
Every once in a while Quebec stands up to the feds and gets them to back off. This is portrayed as separatism to English Canadians. But in reality the so-called "Separatist movement is made up of Sovereignists and a few hard core separatists.
After living in Canada all my life this is normal.
Someone as well mentioned a Newfoundland separatist movement. Are you serious? There are more Newfies living in Ontario than there are in Newfoundland. I live in Cambridge and the biggest summer festival is the Newfie Reunion.
In short that is why I believe that the strongest part of this country is that almost every Canadian has relatives in nearly every province.
Ontario
Karl has a bad track record on predictions.
Before the bailouts he was giving me stern warnings for predicting that the bailouts would come and that they would be bigger than advertised and they would become systemic. He referred to such predictions as tinfoil.
Karl believed that the bailouts wouldn't happen, because they were bad for America.
Karl also referred to observations that there seems to be collusion between the banks and regulators as more tinfoil. Now he he argues that they 'Conspired' to screw us.
I detailed once how the US situation resembles Argentina's. I didn't promote any theory, just pointed out facts. Still those documented facts are a 'tinfoil theory'. But everyday he reverses position and thinks up a new idea (that many of us proposed a few years ago) and promotes it as his new pronouncement. So I think the Argentina meme will make it mainstream as soon as he learns independently, the details on what Argentina has gone through.
Karl is all over the place on prognostications and constantly wrong about what actually happens.
Now he is good at saying, 'such and such won't happen because it will lead to this bad outcome...'. And then he's half right. It happens anyway, but he's right about the effects.
I don't see much doom and gloom here, as compared to some sites. But from the perspective of the eternal bulls, any prognostication that isn't all unicorns and skittles is doom and gloom. And from that perspective, only the doomers were able to accurately predict any of the downturns in our economy. The cornucopians all have flat noses from being whacked by reality over and over, but still they don't bother to duck when it comes around to whack them again. If you watch the MSM, you'd come to believe that every lottery ticket is a winner. you'd never be able to predict that some tickets don't win the jackpot.
In my view, we're not due for a recovery any time soon. I don't base that notion on emotion. It comes from understanding the fundamentals.
1. Industry relies on energy. There is a strong correlative relationship between energy consumption and production. you have to consume energy to make stuff.
2. We are currently in the opening stages of a world wide energy decline. So industry must decline with it. The fact that energy prices keep rising as the economy declines, does not bode well.
3. A full recovery then must be preceded by strong energy growth coupled with low prices.
4. Economic growth without industry, is nothing but a financial bubble, and it must burst.
5. There is no reason to believe that over the next few years, we will see energy growth. So we will not see a recovery over the next few years.
6. Long term, we are likely past peak oil. So no long term recovery, though we may have short periods were we have economic head fakes.
7. Civilizations don't invest in infrastructure during downturns. Instead they fight to funnel wealth into the upper classes. Money will go to help the rich stay rich, before it will be used for nukes, solar panels, etc...
I often get in arguments about alternative energy. Folks tell me that money can be used through yet undiscovered processes, to create matter and energy from nothing. We just need to spend money to discover these processes.
So to cut off the magical thinking portion of how technology will save us in the unspecified future... If you have a counter argument please specify in what year range, the panacea will be invented. I'm willing to discuss civilization saving technologies out to 2016. If you want to talk about how thousands of working fusion reactors can be put on line by 2012, feel free.
Jack Dingler
http://weaseldog.blogspot.com/
I like your bulletin summary, Weaseldog, and I believe I'm going to use it to help convince some people, with some minor modifications.
So regarding shorting the market, this guy made a lot of money doing that last year and lost some of it waiting for the market to continue down. Anyway, there is probably no one watching for the big drop more intently than Atilla. He follows technical indicators of his own creation.
“What I want you to watch is this: When the sell off begins, watch how it is perceived by the masses and media. After a certain percentage, the price action will start diverging from internals. That will probably be when the market becomes oversold. The price will show some dizzy strength while internals keep getting weaker. Sentiment will turn bullish on a small rally and the market will likely be clogged out easily. These signs will be your confirmation that this entire rally off the March lows was a correction.”
Here is what you gotta watch....
And I am holding a lot of SDS.
Evidently Weaseldogs and Coyotes think alike.
I think you made several very salient points based on plain facts and rather non-tinfoil common sense.
Monarchs have sometimes punished messengers carrying bad news, even unto death. So I guess we can survive the "tinfoil hat" label.
Karl's latest rant today, which I agree with by the way, nevertheless exposes his "ism" box rather openly--meaning the republican party. Of course now he is mad as h311 at the RNC.
@ Weaseldog:
If you want to talk about how thousands of working fusion reactors can be put on line by 2012, feel free.
The sort of talk you describe is largely why I've stopped investing time in some of the alternative energy sites.
Current economic facts just don't support the idea the financial and physical resources will be available for the massive task of converting our civilization to all-renewable energy.
That thought leads into one of my major frustrations with the cornucopians. I have yet to see someone in that camp assemble and cogently analyze a set of facts that show we are about to pull out of this tailspin.
Where are all the high-paying jobs going to come from when record numbers fall off the dole in September? I don't see any industries gearing up for massive hiring waves, and I haven't heard anyone else present compelling evidence this will occur.
@ Anon @ 1:26 PM
Agreed about Springsteen.
Anyone else see photos of him playing Yamaha guitars?
Yes, Yamaha makes fine guitars, but Bruce's use of their instruments seems more than a *little* hypocritical for someone who claims to identify so strongly with working, blue-collar Americans?
Why not pick up one of the many fine high-end, US-made Martin, Taylor, or Gibson guitars? Or even a Canadian built Larivee?
Okay, I'll get off the soapbox now.
Next!
Stoneleigh: "The civilized divorce of Czechoslovakia is a case in point. Belgium might achieve the same thing, if it's lucky, although there is already significant animosity.
I can't see Canada going for dissolution in advance, as it's already a mouse in bed with an elephant, so to speak. Dissolution would make that relationship even more unequal, and would leave Eastern Canada very vulnerable in energy terms. I can see an eastern energy grab, along the lines of the hated NEP, in our future, and I think the resentment it would spawn would be huge. The west still hasn't got over the last one."
I did say it wouldn't be easy! My thinking, of course, is that YOU could launch a movement on this, in your spare time.
:-) That's humor, in case you weren't sure. Actually an adaptation from my hero, E.T. Seton (a Canadian immigrant). Here on the farm we say, "sure, you can do that in your spare time!" What Seton repeated was a farm where they often said "sure, we'll do that some day when the work's all done. It sounds so reasonable, but is really so final."
A little more seriously- just mentioning the possibility, and getting people thinking about it- could help. You already have Nunavut; a huge plus. Quebec could be an ally in the movement. You would still have Canada- just as a Commonwealth, not a federation. Probably still mostly use the Commonwealth for international purposes?
:-)
In your spare time!
(or, anybody ELSE out there could start the movement, too!)
More good debt related fun:
http://www.cnn.com/2009/CRIME/08/11/georgia.child.support/index.html
Back from vacation, finally... I enjoy the musical bits posted here, but I have to confess that much of what is posted is completely unfamiliar to me (I rely on my wife to explain to me who The Clash were, or why U2 is a Christian rock band). I was never up on any mainstream band later than the Eagles or Fleetwood Mac; about that time I discovered that this country still had a thriving sub-culture of folk music, roots music, home-made music, or whatever you want to call it. So, when I see these musical bits I think, if only these folks had heard of that great song by so and so... which they probably haven't. So, to address that today, I thought I would provide a sample from the folk genre. Recently we had an offering from The Clash regarding the Spanish Civil War; here's a song that Si Kahn, a prolific song writer and labor activist, wrote about that war. There's a link at the end to hear a little sample of it in MP3; I figure it is Fair Use to provide that much; iTunes does.
Bleeding Hearts, by Si Kahn
Who's that new guy?
Just can't learn to weld a fender
Where's old Eddie
That could do it every time
Fourteen years
He just empties out his locker
Rolls on out the gate and says
I'll see you boys sometime
[chorus]
But now he's lying
On some rocky Spanish mountain
With his rifle on his shoulder
And his heart pinned to his sleeve
Cross the valley
As he sights along the barrel
He can see the distant outlines
Of the things that he believes
He was never
The one that made the speeches
Down at Chrysler
Where we fought 'em from the line
And he never
Got his picture in the paper
He was never out in front
But he was always right behind
But now he's lying... [chorus]
Don't you think
That there's somethin' inside people
Like a spring
That life winds up so tight
Till one day
Somethin' snaps and all the power
That's been coiled up inside them
Comes breakin' through like light
But now he's lying
On some bloody Spanish Mountain
With his rifle bent and smokin'
And his heart that pumps and bleeds
Through the dying
He can feel the future rushing
And it seems a little closer
To the things that he believes...
Bleeding Hearts
Rototillerman - great lyrics! I too feel quite out of the musical loop these days. consider this, one of my favorites...
If you could read my mind love
what a tale my thoughts would tell
just like an old time movie
'bout a ghost from a wishing well
in a castle dark
or a fortress strong
with chains upon
my feet
you know that ghost is me
I know, right about now Ilargi is saying (to us)
get back... get back... get back to where you once belonged!
;-)
Greenpa and Bluebird
Regarding maxing out your credit with no intention of repaying, I am more than a bit leery if one has a choice. I have seldom relied on the kindness of the fascist, corporatist thugs who covertly run the USA, and whose domination will become that more obvious after the collapse.
To paraphrase Bush the Lesser, the Constitution is just a piece of paper. These pigs may yet force repayment a la Shakespeare with a pound of flesh and a jackboot in the face. Stoneleigh certainly sees this in her crystal ball. I am surprised she has not chimed in.
Coy Ote,
That Gordon Lightfoot song is a favourite of mine too :)
Rototillerman,
I love Si Kahn's songwriting. Roy Bailey (a Brit folk singer and emeritus professor of sociology) does a better job of singing them IMO, but Bailey can't write his own music. The combination is very powerful. My favourites include New Year's Eve, Old Joe's Place and What You Do With What You've Got.
The Myth Of Demand
One of the exceedingly common themes that run across alternative energy boards is this fallacy that all there needs to be for alternatives to come online is demand and the political will. While the aspect of political will is indeed true, the myth of demand runs deep and is highly fallacious.
Imagine if you will, an island with 100 people who have crash landed there, there exists a man with 1 Billion dollars in his suit case. He proposes to give some 100 million dollars to build him a rollercoaster and another 200 million to build him a Yacht. Is it going to happen? The demand exists but there is no chance that his supply will be met! Even if he were willing to pay a fine premium for Jack Daniels Whisky, there is simply none on the island.
To make my point clearer, when the Soviet Union collapsed, there existed a bunch of fine engineers and technicians. The populace may have had a great demand for services and factories, but there was no money that could facilitate the transactions. Demand existed in this case, as well as supply. The medium of exchange was non-existent.
Demand is IMO virtually infinite. I demand that I get electricity all days of the week, we can even afford to pay for it but the supply isn't there, there is no water in the dams! So now if I demand rainfall, will it pour from the sky? So in this case, demand exists,the medium of exchange exists but there is no supply, even where there is a willingness to supply.
The proponents of Alternative energy conveniently discount money as just a medium of exchange, the Government can print more or they feel debt is some abstract concept. To see just how important debt and money are, why not open their eyes and see the rest of the world!? See what debt can do to nations and peoples. To call debt abstract is a ridiculous notion, entire nations have succumbed to anarchy as a result of debt. Today Argentina is borrowing from International debt markets at a yield of 17%! as a result of their bond market default in 2001. They are still not welcome there.
Or ask someone who has just been unemployed how he'd love to take his child out for a movie or take his spouse out for a good dinner but simply doesn't have the money to do so? Demand exists but his demand is irrelevant due to a lack of money. I'm sure there are many poor nations whose populace wish to live the life of the Avg American, big homes, big cars, big lifestyles but they simply can not afford them.
Money constitutes a bond of trust. As trust is debased, money is debased. And society is worse off because of it.
Give me liberty or give me meth.
Hello Stoneleigh,
One of my lines of thought is that the elite are not going to be doing well from this crisis. Let's say a very wealthy billionaire took up the advice you're advocating and invested all his money in t-bills, precious metals and maybe bought some land and private security.
His standard of living is still going to substantially plummet. The individual might have been used to a very high standard of living, personal jet travel, fine dining at restaurants, plays and global business deals. As the greatest depression unfolds, this individual will see his living standards plummet. His favourite restaurant might shut down as regular patrons could go broke, his favourite European resort could close down due to debt default.
He might not be able to use his jet due to a lack of fuel or spare parts as factories shut down. As global complexity winds down, things will simply become unavailable. Today the elite in various poor nations enjoy a high standard of living because they are in the periphery, they enjoy all the technology, goods and services being created at the centres.
As the centre itself crashes and winds down, what we face is a global decline in complexity due to a lack of credit and security as well. The elite will try and extract as much wealth as they can but their standard of living will never be the same.
John D Rockefeller was the richest man in history (some would argue the Rothschilds) but he never had access to jet travel, mobile phones, advanced medical technology, climate controlled automobiles, big screen TV or such a vast amount of real time information. Complexity is real wealth and as this winds down/ breaks down, we shall all be poorer as a result.
El G.,
You're very right. Debt forgiveness is not something to count on. In fact it's one of the most dangerous ideas out there. It's giving the outside world a potential handle to control what happens to you.
Maybe people should Google 'debtors prisons' and read about them a little, their legal backgrounds, their implications and the legal processes that enforced their execution.
If you can't pay me back what you owe me at the time I want back what's mine, then you will, if I so choose, have to pay me back with your possessions, your labor and eventually your daughters.
The history books aren't going to tell you anything -- this is a complete change in who we are, what we are, and who will survive.
This is a desired result of a culling of the herd. Gegner is right -- without free and easy credit, most of these jobs are NEVER COMING BACK.
Car industry, financial industry, manufacturing, many of the services...
We're going to have to see the entire Western Hemisphere become part of the Third World...
I explain to the naive who say, " all the government has to do is print more money to get the economy going' with this:
If everyone in your town decided to get a high end inkjet that would print flawless (and thoroughly passable) $20 bills, so that every time they needed to buy something, they would just print up some $20's to cover it.
Soon everyone would quit their jobs because, after all, they ALL could just print $20 at will to pay their bills.
So who's doing the work anymore?
No one.
Now imagine an entire country where everyone was just running their own home printing press as much as needed.
Now imagine the U.S Fed buying Treasury issues when ever the U.S. government needed some quick cash for it's budget deficit.
There you go, I knew everyone could imagine it. 'Printing' money to cover debt is like Mickey casting a spell and telling the Broom to go bring in more water.
No one has to work after that!
Problems solved.
That was Easy®
.
Dr J wrote:
Consider the conference I attended in Nice this year.
Let me know next time you are near the Alps.
Ciao,
François
"Let's say a very wealthy billionaire took up the advice you're advocating and invested all his money in t-bills, precious metals and maybe bought some land and private security."
Eh... Stoneleigh never advised a very wealthy billionaire. And the difference is not a mere matter of degree, so it's not a great position to take from the point of view of explanation
Also, you do have to take into account relative wealth vs absolute wealth. If you lose 50% of your money's value, while relevant commodities prices fall 80%, you're end up much richer even as you just lost half of what you previously owned.
Francois - I actually thought of contacting you when I was in Nice and again when I was in Paris in June, but I figured you were too far away. I will next time.
@ Ilargi
Yes I know Stoneleigh has never advised a billionaire :) and indeed this is the case,
If you lose 50% of your money's value, while relevant commodities prices fall 80%, you're end up much richer even as you just lost half of what you previously owned.
But to enjoy a certain lifestyle we require complexity. Simply having money doesn't do much if you can't get the stuff you need eh?
There's millions of processes that occur daily to make life what it is. The bread we eat is made by a baker we might not know, is stored in a supermarket whose owner we might not know, is financed by a financier in France and we don't know the name of the farmer or who built his tractor, where his fertilizer came from.
Mercedes Benz is not going to stay open if 90% of it's customers go bust and Apple is not going to keep making iPhones in the midst of a Great Depression where people might be struggling to even afford food.
Imagine if China stopped exporting rare earths as a political tool, then a lot of technologies that run on rare earths will not be available. That implies a significant drop in living standards no? Although the person's wealth might have increased.
What I'm suggesting is that, the wealth must be invested in tools and services that are much needed while still available. I'm also saying that the standard of living enjoyed by the elite is all but going to disappear as the center breaks down. If the US is going to descend into an Orlov style breakdown, there is going to quite an angry mob ala French Revolution that is surely going to give the 'elite' some serious heartburn.
Stoneleigh: if you are familiar with Bailey, then undoubtably you have run across Leon Rosselson. Now there's another guy whose lyrics deserve to be sung around the homeless campfires of the future... who can forget Who Reaps The Profits? Who Pays The Price? Or how about Palaces of Gold (lyrics here? Aww, shit, now I'm getting pissed again and it's only mid-afternoon.
Does anyone not believe that the residents of today's "tent cities" will not be the first ones relocated and "disappeared"?
Coy Ote: Remember: Truth - Riot. There will be no real recovery. But to have them think there will be one prevents immediate riot.
Anon 1024: I mean, the Rule of Law means NOTHING anymore. A guy can walk up to you and threaten to kill you, take your $20, and go off his way -- and nothing probably CAN be done unless the police want to Shoot, Shovel, and Shush.
(The former happened to me last night, as well as witnessing another theft from a restaurant just two hours before.)
Ownership by the gun, as I've told people for a long time.
Puzzled: They're monetizing the debt as we speak, and the process only stops when the USA ceases to exist and falls to chaos.
The country, for the last 30-40 years, has been built on this type of credit, monetization, etc. -- the population cannot be sustained without it.
Greenpa: We live at the pleasure of the government. We are not citizens at all -- just "tolerated" unless we are one of them.
Asthete: I fully expect slave labor to take over in debtors' prisons, with the "unfit" simply killed. No credit = No job = No freedom, eventually equalling No life.
"I'm also saying that the standard of living enjoyed by the elite is all but going to disappear as the center breaks down."
Schadenfreude ;)
@ Sam Dug
You caught me! :p
For him maybe.
U.S. economy has bottomed: George Soros
Starcade - I am truly sorry to hear of your experience of late. I hope you can find a way to get out of wherever you are, because as bad as things are all over, in most of the midwest at least, they are not that bad--yet anyway.
I don't like to expose my hard core preparations but suffice to say they include some things that I normally abhor and will not resort to unless absolutely pushed to the limit.
And in fact, if things terribly uncivil that is beyond what any of us can really prepare for. IMO
If you can't pay me back what you owe me at the time I want back what's mine, then you will, if I so choose, have to pay me back with your possessions, your labor and eventually your daughters.
Sorry, but me and everyone else who are in debt will kill you first.
And maybe even eat you.
Anon 1221 Re: Denninger:
Two things he forgets:
1) Any "preparedness" is going to rely on (as part of same) the willingness and the ability to kill. I know that sounds morbid and harsh, but, without that, you're not preparing your own stash, you're preparing someone else's.
2) If the looting is stopped and the prosecuting starts, THERE WILL BE NO FEDERAL NOR LOCAL GOVERNMENT.
You'll have maybe a half a dozen or so Representatives, a Senator or two, no Cabinet, and very few state or local officials either.
My roommate is right -- we are completely fucked.
K Elehmonpy: The American optimistic culture died 20 years ago with the end of the "Electric Youth" Phase of the '80s and the rise of the hip hop and grunge of the '90s.
Now your worth is measured in bling, hertz and decibels (of your boom-car bullsh*t), inches (of your genitalia/chest (depending on gender)) and your willingness to kill, maim, or Be More Hardcore Than Thou.
The optimism of the American culture is GONE.
"I got mine, so f*ck you. -- and what's yours is mine too."
Bigelow - I don't know anything about Reuters NS but they have been running these optimistic articles now for the last few days.
I see where my old bosses (GM) are out pushing the Volt. It's a pretty good engineering piece of work, but will have little impact because of the energy catch-22. And, who's gonna buy them anyway? $35-$40 grand a piece.
About the time folks plugged in a million of these the substation breakers in the ole grid would pop like an M-80. About 8 kw/hrs charge per day (night)
VK,
I concur, in a sustained collapse the colloquial quality of life will lower even for the richest elite, but not nearly so much as for everyone else. They will in all likelihood, relatively speaking, become even more elite and privileged. I don't expect most of the rich elite to be nearly so hard-done as those less well off.
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-0801-1.mp3
4 interviews, Gerald Celente is second, has a great interview with Jim Puplava of Financial Sense.
Anon 7:12
"Sorry, but me and everyone else who are in debt will kill you first.
And maybe even eat you.'
Well somebody's gonna die and I expect it to be mainly the debtors. Their cards will be maxed out when it's time to buy the vests, which will be supplied to the "collectors" at taxpayer expense along with automatic weapons and infrared scopes.
As to who will be eaten, the vultures win either way.
Those that are in debt have already been eaten, they just haven't noticed yet.
Vicky
"If you can't pay me back what you owe me at the time I want back what's mine, then you will, if I so choose, have to pay me back with your possessions, your labor and eventually your daughters.
Sorry, but me and everyone else who are in debt will kill you first. And maybe even eat you."
Yeah, sure.
Ilargi and el gallinazo, since you both responded to the same thing:
I'm not sure it's really going to matter to the debtors that the creditors are loaded up for bear, as it were.
I think, when TSHTF finally, people are going to know who, without upsetting the apple cart, is going to live and who is going to die -- and, if you're in that latter group, it isn't going to matter at that point.
I would assert that the creditors are going to come guns drawn and either take you or kill you, no further questions asked. Otherwise, I do have to wonder if the "There are many more of us than there are of you" motif might be in play here.
Two days into job and AIG's CEO goes on vacation. Ah the chutzpah!
He's got a million dollar home built for Kings!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=azMHBdRR5d8Y
Benmosche, 65, who started yesterday as CEO and president of the bailed-out company, will leave for about two weeks, according to one of the people, who declined to be identified because the plans were private. Mark Herr, an AIG spokesman, said the New York-based firm wouldn’t comment on CEO travel.
“It’s probably not a propitious time for an incoming CEO to begin with a vacation,” said Steven Seiden, president of New York-based executive recruitment firm Seiden Krieger Associates. Seiden said that while the absence won’t hurt the company’s financial position, “from a public relations standpoint it’s probably not the wisest thing to do.”
VK
It's worse than built for kings. It was built for the king's treasurer, undoubtedly far richer than the king himself.
Running up debt for emergency preparedness is just plain stupid. Emergency preparedness means being ready for every situation. What if society holds together and you've just racked up your yearly income in credit card debt? You've just ruined your life. What if the crash comes, but not for four years? You've just ruined your options. Relax, and do the best you can within your means. Beans, rice, vitamins, and water can be purchased rather cheaply, and are a sufficient insurance policy. There are survivalist websites that can give better tips than here on how to basic planning on the cheap.
@Starcade
"I would assert that the creditors are going to come guns drawn and either take you or kill you, no further questions asked. Otherwise, I do have to wonder if the "There are many more of us than there are of you" motif might be in play here."
Half the debtor Usanos will probably shoot themselves in the head as part of their patriotic duty to the country. The other half will be hired by the banks at debt slave wages to gun down the debtors who miss their own heads.
Chevy Volt, 230 MPG. Knockout blow to PO--at least for now, no?
anon 9:42 - no
"Half the debtor Usanos ..."
El G, is Usanos a variation of Usacos or did you mean "gusanos"? :)
I suspect that those that hold the debts will control the enforcement as well.
Just my opinion, but being armed will help protect you from your average street thug, it will do little to help you from well organized crime, or the government when they show up with guys wearing body armor in armored APC’s. Maybe you’ll slow them down a bit, but the end result will be the same.
If normal societal structures break down, I see cities, towns, regions forming militia’s similar to what we see in places like Iraq, as there is strength in numbers; perhaps along religious or ethnic lines in some parts of the USA. But they will require support (protection fees) from the local populace in exchange for their protection. What will be interesting to see is if they fight among themselves for power or if they work for the common good.
BTW. One of our local breweries here is a former poor farm. I prefer it as a brewery.
reading the blogs from the past few days on health care one thing has become obvious to me. Few of TAE blog readers know much of the realities of health care in the southwestern USA. Ilargi knows a lot about Europe. I wonder how many of your readers have lived in Mexico or Brazil. Knowing about these cultures is much more relevant to the US than what the Europeans are doing. Europes gene pool with be nearly wiped out inside of this century.
El Gallinulio-"Regarding maxing out your credit with no intention of repaying, I am more than a bit leery if one has a choice. "
Well, sure. Whaddya think I am, silly or something? As I said there- it was pay Chase, or my mechanic. No choice. :-)
And I certainly would not go and max out a card with the intent of defaulting. Ew. Not recommended; you'll certainly piss them off.
None of my Chase cards were anywhere NEAR maxed, when they started pulling their crap. It was very simple, I was making the card payments just fine; until they rigged it. Then- nope; can't pay both. Ok, Chase, you win. I won't pay you. Why would I stiff the people I live with, to keep Chase happy? Ew, again.
If it ever does get to court (no sign of it happening), I can and will give the judge an earful. Worth it. But I really doubt it can happen- they just really can't stretch this far. If I lived in a city; I'd worry more.
"To paraphrase Bush the Lesser"
O come on now; do I hafta explain The Least again? I do, I assure you, understand comparatives. Wanna see my GRE scores? :-)
THE LEAST. Of ALL georges, through all time. See?
Anon @9:42,
Chevy Volt, 230 MPG. Knockout blow to PO--at least for now, no?
Here's a fairer assessment of the Volt.
It won't be long before no one can afford a new car, so I very much doubt if this model will ever see significant market penetration.
Starcade- "The optimism of the American culture is GONE.
"I got mine, so f*ck you. -- and what's yours is mine too."
While that attitude is certainly plentiful, I think there is another dynamic at work, either underneath, or in addition. Hard to tell.
Your timing on the change in optimism is pretty good.
One of the things that happened around then was the growing awareness of global climate change and other impending environmental disasters; like constant loss of soil, water, fish..
All that stuff was poured into kids ears from kindergarten; no kidding. "Recycle your pop cans, or the entire world is going to die!"
I know LOTS of kids who absorbed that message completely- and as a result, around 8th or 9th grade, really decided and believed that they had no future.
Hopelessness. Well, ok, then. Let's whoop it up before we die, and who gives a shit who gets hurt? None of us has a future.
And- George THE LEAST and Darth Cheney hugely reinforced that kind of thinking for any kid with a brain.
Why try?
Before he died, Kurt Vonnegut told many people he was going to sue Reynolds Tobacco. "They told me if I smoked their cigarrettes all the time, I'd get sick and die. Right on the box. And I'm still here. I've been cheated."
And he wasn't kidding.
It's not an easy dilemma. Insights from your perspective would be greatly appreciated.
Krill, we are; yes.
Among all the dire survival tactics being bandied about here, with abundant opinion, I find one missing.
Become related to a cop. The closer the better. Any way you can.
Anon 7:12; "And maybe even eat you."
Well. ew, again. I know I was joking about eating my organic neighbors the other day, but- probably not.
On the other hand, dog food is getting too expensive. I could use a good new source.
Greenpa... I might be krill...but by thought and deed,would I may become the most poisonous bit of plankton that was ever created by being a quiet voice of reason...to be the one who explains to those who will listen just how we got here..and why and by whose hand all was taken from whatever is left.The trick will be to live through the next 20 years.To be a witness...the one who remembers.And tells...to those who may be swayed by the ones who want to "Organize things"
Thirdcoast
Bad move telling me about that canadian custom guitar maker,.Now I have a bad,bad case of the "I wants"
Depends how fast "they" decide to do something about alt energy.Set say ohh,5000 steel shops building towers,,,200-300ft...tell GE,and every electric part manufacturer in the country, they now go back to building the best 10-50 kilowatt [yeah their small] wind turbine on the planet...with grid tie-ins...and rebuild the grid...smart,redundant...make power heavy industy move to the great plains where the wind blows and blow...in short...lets have some good old-fashioed industrial policy ...made in Washington to serve American citizens interest.
It will work better than the "free" market ..betcha a dollar
time for rest...
snuffy
I watched some of President Obama’s health-care town hall meeting today. One participant, a middle-aged man very concerned about his Lipitor cholesterol drug, grabbed my attention. To say this man was carrying a few extra pounds would be putting it far too mildly.
There are a lot of lifestyle angles yet to be viewed concerning health-care reform in America. And one angle in particular probably deserves special consideration-- when the head tilts toward the floor, it is probably healthy for both the viewer and the nation if the toes and feet can be seen.
Aesthete
Something interesting ...
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-lawsuits10-2009aug10,0,6482327.story
Lawsuits are the latest roadblock for California budget
jal
"To make my point clearer, when the Soviet Union collapsed, there existed a bunch of fine engineers and technicians. The populace may have had a great demand for services and factories, but there was no money that could facilitate the transactions. Demand existed in this case, as well as supply. The medium of exchange was non-existent."
Is it really lack of money supply, or rather lack of capital (that a money supply would represent) Capital being tools and factories the engineers would use, and the "system" to feed the engineers while they are working on new products so they can focus on specializing instead of subsistence. In that case a complex system that provides the framework, including money, itself would also be considered capital? I would think lack of money supply could easily be remedied if all the other elements were in place?
Or, if capital is all being hoarded in a few hands that is being spent out of the country by an elite. I believe during the days of the dutch empire, farmers in dutchland concentrated on high value animal based products (and medium-value mass produced manufactures) and outsourced destructive grain production to russian peasants controlled by a small elite. The wealth generated in Russia was concentrated in a few hands and spent on luxury products (such as fancy clocks, mechanical devices that could write signatures, etc) The artisan class in russia was starved out because the elite did not purchase locally and the peasants had no means to support a middle class. (coming soon to a theatre near you)
I'm not an expert on the dutch economy of period, so I would welcome correction of mistaken notions.
if you are familiar with Bailey, then undoubtably you have run across Leon Rosselson.
"Stand Up for Judas ......... It was jesus who betrayed the poor with his words"
I've visited the tent city in Champaign cited in that one article and it's a gag - about as much square footage in a back yard as one finds in a modern ranch. There's no room, constant police harassment, they've moved to other towns then promptly been bounced - it'd be quite funny as a Saturday Night Live skit, less so when real people are involved.
Need a job? North Dakota is calling
North Dakota has the healthiest labor market in the U.S. Thanks to a $700 million budget surplus and a big tax cut, the state has 9,000 job openings -- which it's hoping to fill with laid-off workers from the rest of the Midwest. Dan Bobkoff reports.
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/08/11/pm-north-dakota/
-gylangirl
re debts abandoned
As late as the 1940's the govt rounded up african american citizens off their own neighborhood streets, falsely charged them with vagrancy laws, put them in prison for failing to pay the associated court fees they couldn't afford. Then a nice brick company manufacturer would offer to pay their court fee debt to the government but the price was the african american had to pay back the fee with unpaid labor to the brick company. Thus the constitutional amendment against involuntary servitude was disregarded for several decades. America practiced slavery well into the 20th century.
Future cops and courts similarly will seize those who are over-indebted, and shame them for their inability/refusal to pay by rounding them up for the debtor prisons and then make a similar arrangement with the corporate masters they serve. If you got property, they will also seize it as payment for failing to pay your debt "to society". It is called indentured servitude, the polite name for former white slavery.
Look out, the debt is a trap to keep the elite in luxury at your expense. Especially since a barrel of oil represents so many labor hours - and without it - the luxury lifestyle must somehow still be maintained. If not manufacturig bricks or mining coal, you may replace their former electric appliances and convenience services.
Or, if capital is all being hoarded in a few hands that is being spent out of the country by an elite. I believe during the days of the dutch empire, farmers in dutchland concentrated on high value animal based products (and medium-value mass produced manufactures) and outsourced destructive grain production to russian peasants controlled by a small elite. The wealth generated in Russia was concentrated in a few hands and spent on luxury products (such as fancy clocks, mechanical devices that could write signatures, etc) The artisan class in russia was starved out because the elite did not purchase locally and the peasants had no means to support a middle class. (coming soon to a theatre near you)
I'm not an expert on the dutch economy of period, so I would welcome correction of mistaken notions.
I think that if you substituted "Polish" for "Russian", you would be quite correct. Russia was much too far away from the Netherlands and far less organized at that time. Also, in Russia the costs of internal trade were very substantial as their rivers tend to go the "wrong way". Ask the Germans and they will tell you why.
The aristocracy of Poland treated their peasants like trash. Here is an extract from Fernand Braudel's Civilization and Capitalism, 15th-18th Century: The Wheels of Commerce v. 2: The Wheels of Commerce Vol 2 page 267
In Poland, in about 1500, compulsory labour was insignificant - one day/week. In 1550 or so, it was increased to three days/week and in 1600 to six days. The same thing was happening in Hungary ... and finally all regulations were suspended and compulsory labour was to be determined entirely by the good will and pleasure of the lord.
It is from reading stuff like that that I have become rather sceptical of the idea that people who have a little farm will be left alone. I think it may be an excellent idea for some but not for all. Personally, I prize mobility and once you start planting things, you are stuck.
[....The artisan class in russia was starved out because the elite did not purchase locally and the peasants had no means to support a middle class....]
Sounds like a chicken-'n-egg argument - perhaps elites had to import luxury artisanware because there was no artisan class...
Richard Pipes in "Property and Freedom" saw a different cause for this difference between Russian and contemporary English society;
From fff.org;
"He contrasts the history of liberty in the West with the history of despotism in Russia, where a tradition of private property either did not exist or was smothered by cruel and all-controlling governments over the centuries. Russia need not have followed this path, however. Pipes reminds the reader of the history of the great city-state of Novgorad in north-central Russia, which had a developed commercial culture, a respect for private property, and a fairly democratic political order in the Middle Ages, but which was finally crushed by the tyrants of Moscow."
Pipes thought Russia's lack of heritable property rights stunted the development of a Merchant Middle Class and their associated guild structures.
Marcus
@ Nassim
How do you plan to remain mobile? Once you are in Australia and TSHTF, you're kinda stuck on a big island in the middle of nowhere! I reckon Tasmania is a pretty good spot, good land and not to populated.
Shanghai Stock Exchange was down another 4.7% today. The slide has begun. This is the leading indicator IMO for a downturn in US stocks.
I can smell the deflation in the air
Consumer prices in Germany posted their first annual decline in more than 22 years in July and wholesale prices plunged after energy costs fell and the worst recession since World War II curbed spending.
Consumer prices, calculated using a harmonised European Union method, fell 0.7pc from a year earlier, more than initially estimated, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said yesterday. A separate report showed wholesale prices dropped 10.6pc in July from a year ago, the biggest decline since the data was first compiled in 1968.
Also, Ambrose Evans writes is China a Giant Ponzi Scheme
Beijing is walking a tightrope by trying to offset the collapse in exports – almost 40pc of GDP – with an investment blitz in roads, railways, and industry through state-owned companies.
The real economy cannot absorb the money, so it is leaking into asset speculation. The central bank estimates that 20pc of fresh credit has ended up in equity markets. The Shanghai index is up 80pc this year, though profits have fallen by almost a third. The pattern echoes the final phase of Japan's Nikkei bubble in 1989.
"China is a big fat tail risk for world markets," said Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas. "Shanghai equities have reached the same extreme as in late 2007. The country will have to cut credit growth, and when this happens, Shanghai equities and commodities will suffer. That is what could bring this global rally to a halt."
Estonia's economy contracted at 16.6% in the last quarter. Baltic Dry is really going down now - around 33% from its June peak?!
Anon @3:18,
Look out, the debt is a trap to keep the elite in luxury at your expense. Especially since a barrel of oil represents so many labor hours - and without it - the luxury lifestyle must somehow still be maintained. If not manufacturig bricks or mining coal, you may replace their former electric appliances and convenience services.
Debt is indeed a trap. The civilized methods for getting out from under unpayable debt burdens are not going to exist when everyone wants to use them. We will be back to debtor's prisons, inter-generational indentured servitude and being strong-armed into the military.
As you say, the loss of energy slaves will bring back demand for human ones. The elites will be only too happy to use whatever levers of control they have over people in order to maintain whatever semblance they can of their former lifestyle.
@Coy Ote
If I rephrase the headline to Wealthy Leader Directs Swine to Move Away From Government Trough it would express what I gleaned from it.
“Soros said he did not believe the economy needed more stimulus money…”
Sure he said there will be growth in this quarter but they do that by increasing productivity, i.e. fire more people so it costs less to make stuff nobody is buying
SDS:
In @ 46.39 umm, last Thursday I think.
In for some more @ 45.47 Monday.
Baby needs a new pair a shoes ...
(watch S&P shoot up to 1100. ;-)
New post up.
VK
I noticed that 4.7% drop in the Shanghai this morning. That's a serious number, and I am glad you expressed an opinion. I recall that you wrote a few days ago that the Asian equities collapse would precede the western.
Bigelow, Rapier, and other ETF guys
I did a little research and found that SDS tracked the S&P500 during the fall collapse by only 1.67 over several months (as I recall as the notes are now in bins awaiting shipment). I did not get to tracking it during the rally yet. I figure that if it followed downward at about 1.67, then the risk would be a push as they say in Vegas. Anyway, I am now thinking as a strategy to put all my mad money in SH about Sep 1, and once the S&P is off about 6%, then selling SH and going into SDS for the trip down. This would avoid the evaporation of value while the rally continues or goes sideways. Opinions?
Greenpa
I think Bush the Lesser or George the Least are both appropriate terms unless you want to throw Jeb and Prescott into the mix. Of course, Prescott gets points for his Nazi collaboration.
Ahimsa
I meant Usaco (rather than Usano). Gusano is too strong a term. The health care "debate" shows just how dumbed down the average American has become. The fact that the birth places of fascism, Italy and Germany, have had excellent single payer universal plans for decades speaks volumes.
from Mish:
Porno interns now working for free. A formerly well paid pro comments:
"I wish I would have never gotten into it," Stern said of her career in porn. "When you get used to a certain lifestyle, it's really hard to cut back and realize this may not be forever."
To paraphrase the old GM adage, perhaps it's more accurate now to say, "As goes the porn industry, so goes the nation."
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